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Messages - Flee
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4081
« on: July 23, 2016, 04:51:54 AM »
I haven't been making many threads about Brexit after the vote to avoid being "that guy" who constantly points out the negatives of a policy he doesn't agree with, but this one is pretty important. One of the best ways to judge the state of an economy is by looking at the output of service and manufacturing businesses and how consumers' purchasing habits have changed. After the first shock to the pound, this information, which is an assessment of business activity in companies and an illustration of business and consumer confidence, has been considered one of the most important staples to assess the current post-Brexit situation and is theorized to influence the Bank of England's interest rates and the spending plans of the Chancellor. This PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) has been known since yesterday and revealed an even larger drop than what most negative predictions suspected. While this data is still preliminary and the full extent of the PMI's won't be known for another few weeks, many fear that the full numbers will paint an even worse picture as some of the fields expected to have been hit the hardest by Brexit (such as construction) are not yet accounted for. Some snippets of major newspapers: BBC: Brexit causes dramatic drop in UK economy - plunges to worst level since 2009
Britain's decision to leave the EU has led to a "dramatic deterioration" in economic activity, not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis. Data from IHS Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, shows a fall to 47.7 in July, the lowest level since April in 2009. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Both manufacturing and service sectors saw a decline in output and orders.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit, said the downturn had been "most commonly attributed in one way or another to 'Brexit'." He added that the economy could contract by 0.4% in the third quarter of this year, but that would depend on whether the current slump continued. "The only other times we have seen this index fall to these low levels, was the global financial crisis in 2008/9, the bursting of the dot com bubble, and the 1998 Asian financial crisis," Mr Williamson told the BBC. "The difference this time is that it is entirely home-grown, which suggest the impact could be greater on the UK economy than before. "This is exactly what most economists were saying would happen." A subset of the PMI figures, shows that service companies, such as insurance or advertising, are feeling less positive about the future than at any time since the height of the recession.
Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the figures provided the "first major evidence that the UK is entering a sharp downturn". Although he added that the "confidence shock from the Leave vote might wear off over the coming months". Neil Wilson, markets analyst at ETX Capital, said he thought the UK was "heading for a recession again", and that the data would almost certainly prompt the Bank of England to roll out further stimulus. The pound has fallen in response to the publication of the data.
While IHS Markit's reading on the UK economy was worse than most analysts expected, its verdict on the wider eurozone economy was more cheery. Although business confidence dropped to an 18-month low, the overall pace of economic growth was in line with pre-Brexit trends, and employment across the eurozone rose. The optimistic outlook is in line with comments made by the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, who said on Thursday that Europe's financial markets had "weathered" the uncertainty caused by the vote. Reuters: Britain's economy wilting fast after Brexit vote
Britain's economy is shrinking, the broadest survey of business confidence since last month's historic vote to quit the European Union showed on Friday, leading Chancellor Philip Hammond to pledge a loosening of purse strings if the weakness endures. The Bank of England has also been clear that easing monetary policy may be necessary. The flash, or preliminary, Markit survey of purchasing managers - executives who make spending decisions at 1,250 big firms - fell by the most in its 20-year history.
It was consistent with an economy contracting 0.4 percent in the third quarter, contrasting with an actual reading of plus 0.4 percent in the first quarter. "July saw a dramatic deterioration in the economy," said Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist. "The downturn, whether manifesting itself in order book cancellations, a lack of new orders or the postponement or halting of projects, was most commonly attributed in one way or another to Brexit."
The Markit PMIs, which give an early indication of how gross domestic product is likely to perform, suggest the 1.8 trillion pound UK economy is shrinking faster than at any time since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. It showed the services sector - one of the few British growth drivers - has been hit especially hard by Brexit, with orders plunging and confidence crumbling. A major concern among businesses is the access Britain will have to the EU's single market after leaving. Britain insists it want to limit freedom of movement of workers; the EU says such freedom is a condition of the single market. The PMI for the services sector fell to 47.4 in July from 52.3 in June, the steepest drop since records began in 1996 and the worst reading since March 2009, around the low point of the global economic recession. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a much smaller fall to 49.2. The Guardian: British business activity has slumped as clients cancel orders and postpone projects - economy shrinking at the fastest rate since 2009
Neil Wilson of ETX Capital says the UK PMI survey is “truly abysmal”, and suggests that the EU referendum vote has - as feared - hit the economy. “Today’s super-weak PMI is the first hard evidence that Brexit has already had an impact on the UK economy. There was a sharp fall in activity in July and it now looks like the Bank of England has the data it needs to launch fresh easing at its next meeting at the start of August. Quite simply, the UK economy contracted at the fastest pace since the start of 2009, when the global financial crisis plunged us into recession. The readings suggest we are heading for a recession again and it is almost certain the BoE will pull the trigger on aggressive stimulus to boost aggregate demand. Financial Times: PMI survey signals sharp downturn in UK economy
The Bank of England and the government are poised to take action to cushion an economic downturn after closely watched figures showed British business activity suffered its sharpest reverse in July since the financial crisis.
The purchasing managers’ survey is the most significant evidence yet of damage to the economy from the EU referendum result, but the data has not always been an accurate predictor of a recession. A snapshot of July’s PMI figures yesterday sank to a level associated with recession, economists said, pointing out that equivalent surveys in the rest of Europe and the US showed these economies unaffected by Brexit. The Markit/CIPS survey, which tracks activity across the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 47.7 in July from 52.4 in June, indicating that UK business activity was contracting. This is the lowest reading since the spring of 2009, though still much higher than the indicator’s trough in 2008. The decline in activity was most evident in the services sector, accounting for 80 per cent of the UK economy, with new orders falling at the quickest rate in more than seven years. Data for future business expectations also showed the largest monthly fall on record.
With very few exceptions, the private sector economic surveys of the period after the EU referendum have shown very large drops in the measures of sentiment, confidence and production. The GfK consumer confidence survey remains at a reasonably positive level but has not suffered a larger drop than it did in late June and early July for 21 years. Households report a loss of confidence in the economic outlook, their expectations of incomes and whether it is a good time to make large purchases. In the corporate sector, surveys from the Institute of Directors, Deloitte and Lloyds Bank have all shown companies reporting a distinct deterioration in business conditions. The one partial exception to this was the Bank of England’s report of its regional agents, which showed “no clear evidence of a sharp general slowing in activity” so far, although a third of companies thought they would scale back investment plans over the coming year. The PMI indices attempt to measure output as well as sentiment. With activity in the flash survey for mid-July at its lowest level since 2009, there was little good news, although manufacturing was hit less hard than services. Bloomberg: Brexit wreaks havoc on UK economy as recession risk increases
The U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union inflicted an immediate blow on the economy as business activity shrank at its fastest pace since the last recession seven years ago. In the weeks following Brexit, there was a “dramatic deterioration,” Markit Economics said in a one-time report published Friday. Services and manufacturing shrank and a gauge of the private-sector economy plunged to 47.7, well below the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction. The slump is the strongest evidence yet that politics is propelling the world’s fifth largest economy into recession. It intensifies pressure on the Bank of England to deliver fresh monetary stimulus and on the government to reverse fiscal austerity. The pound dropped after the report was published, with Markit saying its latest readings put the economy on course to contract by 0.4 percent this quarter.
“July’s PMI certainly points to more easing,” said Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in London. “We’ve seen a variety of business measures fall to levels not seen since the financial crisis. Although consumer confidence might hold up for the next few months, businesses are putting the brakes on investment.” A gauge of services, the biggest part of the economy, dropped to 47.4. The slide in the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index was sharper than economists had predicted and was the biggest drop on record. It’s now at the lowest since April 2009, when the global financial crisis had helped push the U.K. into five straight quarters of contraction, and then Prime Minister Gordon Brown said an “international hurricane” was battering the world economy. Question to Meta in specific: how do you think the BoE and Chancellor will react to this? Many are predicting that these numbers have increased the chance of seeing the rates being cut or changes to the Chancellor's Autumn spending plan.
4082
« on: July 23, 2016, 03:31:55 AM »
Nothing much of Trump being right again with the party being rigged against Bernie. But we already knew that.
We always knew this was real, but I'm baffled that things like this are happening in US politics with such openness. Makes me understand the alt campaigning and its appeal more.
4084
« on: July 22, 2016, 06:54:24 PM »
I'll keep it short because it's getting quite late. And you definitely don't have to do the whole quote wall thing, I just find it easy to organize my points. Like I said, I can understand why some people don't like his personality, like how people don't like Trump's personality and then turn it into something untrue. Fair enough. I fully disagree and actually think this is a bit of a shame, as I think a man like Milo could do far better. Black and white is a perfectly fine starting point. By no means should the rule of that be followed to a t, but viewing everything as grey complicates things. I really couldn't disagree more. This alienation of people who think differently and this hostility towards "the other" is a terrible thing. It burns bridges rather than build them and does nothing but create two islands and echo chambers where people interact only with likeminded folks, going untouched by information contrary to their beliefs and increasingly demonizing the other as nothing but stupid, emotional and fundamentally wrong. People rarely care about the truth anymore. They care about what fits in their little picture and what confirms their bias and prejudice. And this knows no political bounds. It's why "the left" eagerly dismisses concerns of "the right" as homophobic, bigoted, outdated and offensive towards minorities. It's why conservatives discard progressive rhetoric as emotional, immoral and in violation of traditional values and truths. It's why groups like BLM or third wave feminists shy away from Milo's stats rather than listen. It's why people like Milo conveniently ignore the dozens of books and papers about the democratic nature of the EU, as it challenges his own narrative. It's why a conservative-owned website like TheTruthAboutGuns, supposedly dedicated to all things about firearms and gun laws, doesn't even mention the recent meta-analysis (one of the largest ones ever in this field) of 130 studies covering a dozen countries conducted by several universities and prominent researchers when it finds that gun control can have benefits, but instead still cites numbers from a single discredited phone survey from the 1980's by a nearly fraudulent researcher paid by the NRA. It's presenting extremely complex and multifaceted issues as convenient one-sided challenges that can easily be solved by one "obvious" policy and I don't see how anything good can come of this. But he at least stands firm with his beliefs unlike the alternative candidate who flip-flops from election to election and had a rigged party to get her the nomination, being proven through the DNC Leaks. I'm familiar with the issues Politifact has, but none of your links illustrate that they're wrong in anything they've said about Trump. It's easy to argue that them rating something "half true" should have been "mostly true" or that they shouldn't have taken certain comments seriously, but that doesn't change anything about how Trump's track record and how often he has said things which simply aren't true. And even though I only follow the US elections with a passing interest, I'm surprised to see you say that Trump stands firm with his beliefs, considering that even Fox News called his policy changes a "record of flip flops" and he has now changed his opinion on several issues not only over the course of the past few elections, but even during the current year. These are only the first few results from a quick google search on how Trump's beliefs have changed, or how he voices some of them so deliberately vague and contradictory that there's no telling what he really thinks. And people revere him because he speaks for these people, like with Trump. To sound cliche, he says what they're thinking, and he's not afraid to do so. He's in a position to represent these people that next to no one else can or does. Hell he's leading a pride parade through a muslim ghetto in Sweden in the next few weeks. Why? Because he's standing up for the people our governments have turned their backs on. No kidding he's a provocateur, but he's trying to get something done, even if it's to only bring people's attention to it, rather than bury away what's actually going on.
This is one of the best textbook cases of populism I've seen and it perfectly illustrates how the internet enables it, as contradictory that might sound. If you don't mind, I'm bookmarking this in case this is a topic I get to research later. That aside, I don't disagree with the notion that things with a certain shock factor might be necessary to bring issues to the attention of many and that the "ruling class" does have issues with neglecting certain groups. You definitely have a point there. However, I don't believe this is the answer. Supporting men or rhetorics like Trump('s) could lead to some very dangerous precedents being set where what you might consider the regressive left is met with even more regression from the right.
4085
« on: July 22, 2016, 03:48:07 PM »
His arguments aren't just "Feminism is cancer, thank you" and then he leaves. I figured you'd know what I was talking about, as it's apparently a pretty famous "speech" of his. I also never said he's wrong. I appreciate people bringing facts into these debates and saying what needs to be said, as I strive to do so myself. But when we started talking about him, it was about how delightful of a person he is. Facts are facts. They can't be rude or offensive. The way in which you present them, however, is a different story altogether. My post was directed specifically at you calling him a delightful person for those who aren't easily offended. I disagree. You're painting him as this person doing nothing but presenting cold hard facts and statistics. I'm not that interested in the whole feminism topic but looking at his comments about things I'm very familiar with like Brexit and gun control, I'm seeing a lot of exaggerations, buzzwords and simply incorrect statements, which really don't coincide with the man of brutal facts he's presenting himself as. He takes hardline points because clearly coming only with facts like the right tends to Utterly ridiculous and black/white statements like that really make me want to not discuss things with you. This attitude of "us versus them", "our facts against their feelings" and "we the good guys against the clueless other" are exactly the kind of toxicity that is destroying modern politics. How in the world is there supposed to be an open and honest discussion or solution when you've already let your bias turn the entirety of society and politics into this war between the pitiful left versus the factual right? I call out bullshit where I see it, whether it's leftist or right wing, and I've seen at least as much of it come from the conservative side as from the left. Neither side can be viewed as "tending to bring facts", as there's just as many lies coming from the right as the left, something clearly evidenced by your preferred presidential candidate who was awarded the "Lie of the Year" award by the non-partisan PolitiFact after only having 14% of his big statements rated true/half true and who literally couldn't talk for two minutes without making a false claim during his big nomination speech yesterday.And yeah, I do like that he can rile people up with statistics and opinions that offends them. Are you sure that the only explanation here is that these people are getting offended over Milo's undeniable facts and truths, and not over things like him making blatant insults, mockeries or deliberately offensive attacks on people? People getting offended over the research he presents are stupid. And I'm sure there's plenty of them on both sides of these debates. But don't be so gullible as to think that this is nothing but a pitiful regressive reaction to the truth instead of to his demeanor, attacks and inflammatory comments made for the sole purpose of getting people worked up. But guess what, too bad. Being polite about topics that aren't nice and cozy isn't an obligation. I understand people aren't going to like his personality. But presenting objective information in a brash manner doesn't make the information any less credible. I never claimed otherwise. I just think it's immature, pitiful and saying a lot about the kind of person he is. Props to him for confronting emotion with facts. I fully support that. But his attittude? His comments? His actions? They're downright embarassing. And so is this idea that he is this champion of truth and fact, as I've already seen him get things wrong on topics I'm particularly interested in. Like most other media personalities, Milo has a clear agenda. He will see what he wants to see in evidence, ignore research to the contrary of the point he's making and is bound to cherrypick and present information in a way that supports his rhetoric. It's the reason why I don't follow any particular "personality" on either side of these debates. Don't forget that.
4086
« on: July 22, 2016, 02:33:27 PM »
I mean, look at stuff like this in certain US areas. There's more pokemon and more different kinds of them in a square mile there at one point in time than I have seen in my entire time playing this game.  You can say it's more fun and exciting to find pokemon the hard way when there's less of them around and all that, but when the rarest thing you've seen within walking distance of your house is an Oddish, it really is a bit of letdown to see how much more variety and full of an experience others get just because of where they live. Not that it doesn't make sense, but I understand these complaints.
4087
« on: July 22, 2016, 02:25:31 PM »
the urban advantage in this game is real. its not even fun to play it if you live out in the country or on the outskirts of town.
The difference exists even between cities. Looking at my city on Pokevision, I find some Drowzees, a Krabby, some Pidgeys/Rattata and a Nidoran spread over the entire area. Comparing that to some of the pinned American cities, they are absolutely littered with pokemon like (and there's several of each in view) Electrabuzz, Mankee, Omanyte, Aerodactyl, Golduck, Seaking, Growlithe, Pinsir and the starters. The game is definitely still fun, but hearing from people who have a dozen constantly lured pokestops around their block, find rare pokemon every 10 minutes and are level 25+ with a 100 pokemon caught and gyms with 2000+ CP teams in them makes it a little less interesting.
4088
« on: July 22, 2016, 02:08:59 PM »
In response to just about all of the comments in this thread, there are reports of witnesses saying that the shooters screamed "Scheiß Ausländer", meaning "Fuck(ing) foreigners".
Nothing confirmed yet and it's possible this is just bullshit, but it's never a bad thing to be cautious until the facts are known.
4089
« on: July 22, 2016, 01:59:14 PM »
You were against Brexit too, yeah you probably wouldn't like him. I almost wish you didn't say that, because I've lost even more confidence in him now. "Brexit will stop mass immigration from Muslim countries", "Britain suffered economically by being part of the EU", "undemocratic and unelected bureaucrats", "Brexit is a blow that will break the EU and globalism", "UK fighting tyrannical continental empires", "everyone wants the housing market to crash" on top of some of his other statements?... Damn, for a man you've been praising as a herald of brutal but unpopular facts, he has no clue what he's talking about on some of these issues and appears to bank heavily on populist buzzwords. But his "rudeness" mostly comes from speaking truths some people don't want to hear, much like Trump. No, his rudeness does not come from him speaking "truths", which I can already tell are not always particularly truthful at all. It comes him from doing things like taking the stage and saying "I've come here with a speech I've prepared tonight. Ahem. Feminism and its supporters are cancer. Thank you!" along with bullying people online and making intentionally offensive statements with no discussion value whatsoever. I've seen enough of your posts to understand you are eager to support people like him, but this whole "people don't like him because he's right, smart and speaks the unpopular truth libtards don't want to hear" theme is just clueless. But then again, why listen to what he has to say and let him speak for himself when you can just go read totally and completely unbiased opinions from people who barely know who he is. Well, I have been spending this past hour reading his articles and watching his speeches and debates. I have read the grand total of zero opinion pieces on him (aside from one coming from one of his own supporters who just couldn't ignore his comments about Brexit any longer and factchecked him) and haven't taken anyone's posts in this thread for granted. He's said some decent things that I agree with, but being rude and speaking over other doesn't make you right. It just makes you obnoxious. Lacking a filter and blatantly insulting people doesn't make you a champion of free speech and destroyer of political correctness. It just makes you a douche. The man is a gifted speaker with some good ideas, but his demeanor is embarrassing and a testament to the poor state certain politics are in.
4090
« on: July 22, 2016, 12:17:28 PM »
Well then. He sure sounds like an absolutely delightful person.
He actually is, unless you're the kind of person that gets easily offended. Obviously no one has to agree with him completely, and I can understand why people might not like his boisterousness or flamboyancy, but he knows what he's talking about and he doesn't get his facts wrong (which is why he's never been sued). Seems like most people want to here the quips he makes than the actual facts he brings to the table unlike the people he debates.
I'm far from easily offended and he seems like a rather unpleasant and obnoxious person banking on rudeness and flamboyancy as "assets". Shame, because he looks like a good public speaker. I don't know much about his opinions, but him supporting Trump and his comments on gun control don't inspire much confidence.
4091
« on: July 22, 2016, 08:39:15 AM »
Well then. He sure sounds like an absolutely delightful person.
4092
« on: July 22, 2016, 03:19:53 AM »
Literally who or what?
4093
« on: July 21, 2016, 06:29:46 AM »
Am I reading this wrong or does this just say that the uncertainty before the referendum didn't result in sharp economic downturn, with there not yet being sufficient recent data to judge the reaction to the actual Brexit vote? Because both would make perfect sense. The problem with the accuracy of most older economic predictions is that they banked on Cameron's promise to go through with article 50 immediately and ensure a swift withdrawal. Instead, we're now in a limbo with several obstacles in the way and no chance of any formal measure being taken for another 6 months and the appointment of May, which definitely cushioned the blow. I also don't think any of the major economic forecasts predicted an instant breakdown of the UK's economy. Of course, the pound would collapse and there'd be some short term damage, but it was bound to recover relatively quick. The real problems were always expected to be on a longer term after prolonged uncertainty or an actual agreement with the Union. Trade with the EU faltering, companies having a smaller hiring pool, immigrant labor from Eastern Europe drying up, companies favoring the Union's larger market, the UK losing competitiveness on the global markets, knowledge workers and scientists/R&D moving more and more to the European mainland, investments dropping... All of which would slow the UK's economic growth considerably. Even though I'm still unsympathetic towards Brexit, I really hope none of this happens and don't wish anything bad on the UK. But as far as I know, the real economic worries always concerned the mid to longer term developments rather than the initial shock which was bound to recover. The Financial Times just released its Brexit barometer, stating that the general economic predictions are poor to worrying depending on the sector, and the UK Treasury's analysis of independent economic forecasts found that predictions of growth have again been lowered by 0.3% for 2016 and 0.6% for 2017. Either way, this is good news for both the UK and the EU.
4094
« on: July 21, 2016, 05:33:51 AM »
Even more proof that Japan can't do anything right.
4095
« on: July 20, 2016, 06:14:29 PM »
Got a link to more highlights, Verb? I haven't been able to watch a lot of it live (saw some Tekken, Melee and Mortal Kombat) so that'd be nice.
i was gonna make a big highlight & final result post, but i got caught up with my driver's ed
i'm making it now, but could i get you or somebody to clean this thread up please?
torso decided he would shit up some threads earlier today
Done.
4096
« on: July 20, 2016, 02:27:37 PM »
Got a vulpix from an egg but they dont appear on the map so no ninetails
Tfw no ninetails
Vulpix does appear on the map. I caught one like an hour ago.
they dont for me 
They're just rare and some of them (reportedly) are more likely to show up near certain places (fire types on hot days / sand / gas stations...). This was the first Vulpix I've seen in my time playing the game. 
4097
« on: July 20, 2016, 11:34:11 AM »
Got a vulpix from an egg but they dont appear on the map so no ninetails
Tfw no ninetails
Vulpix does appear on the map. I caught one like an hour ago.
4098
« on: July 19, 2016, 04:16:10 PM »
It doesn't make sense to have a common currency area without a fiscal and banking union.
Like I said, I support the idea, not necessarily the way it was implemented. I have never had anything against closer fiscal unification. And you're right, I thought the BoE decision did change its policy but turns out what I read was just speculation from a while back. My bad.
4099
« on: July 19, 2016, 01:55:13 PM »
I support the Euro
It's a solid idea. While this is economics we're talking about and there's no consensus on the exact numbers or the extent of the following, much research points towards the Euro having increased trade, price parity on identical goods, physical and bond investments and tourism while generally benefiting stability and keeping inflation and transaction costs low. Has the Euro been mismanaged and hit hard by the eurozone crisis? Absolutely. Does that mean the concept of a single European currency is inherently flawed? I don't think so.
4100
« on: July 19, 2016, 01:34:38 PM »
yup.
But, the Euro used to be around 1.30 to a dollar and now it's 1.10
So there's still a 20 cent gap.
And since the numbers are smaller that gap is more significant.
So it's actually stronger now to the euro than it was last year.
Get fucked, Flee.
That's not really how it works. If I recall correctly, the Euro was 1.30 to a dollar 2 years ago, not 1. Last year today, it was at 1.08 while it's 1.10 now. As for the pound, it sat at 1.55 July 20th 2015 and is now down to 1.30 to the dollar. To each other, the pound sat at 1.42 to the Euro last July 20th and is now down to 1.19. And it's important to note that the numbers we're seeing right now are the direct result of the Bank of England's monetary policy changes last week. I'll be the first to admit that the Euro isn't doing well, but Brexit lowered the Euro to USD from 1.13 to 1.10 right after it happened and not much has changed since. I don't see how the pound has come out stronger compared to the Euro after the referendum.
Do you support the Euro?
I support the Euro in the sense that I believe a single currency for the Union can be very practical, remove barriers to the single market, pose a strong bloc on the global markets and be beneficial for the European economy. But that being said, infinitely expanding it is a terrible idea and the ECB/Commission has made some pretty questionable to poor policy decisions.
4101
« on: July 19, 2016, 11:16:06 AM »
yup.
But, the Euro used to be around 1.30 to a dollar and now it's 1.10
So there's still a 20 cent gap.
And since the numbers are smaller that gap is more significant.
So it's actually stronger now to the euro than it was last year.
Get fucked, Flee.
That's not really how it works. If I recall correctly, the Euro was 1.30 to a dollar 2 years ago, not 1. Last year today, it was at 1.08 while it's 1.10 now. As for the pound, it sat at 1.55 July 20th 2015 and is now down to 1.30 to the dollar. To each other, the pound sat at 1.42 to the Euro last July 20th and is now down to 1.19. And it's important to note that the numbers we're seeing right now are the direct result of the Bank of England's monetary policy changes last week. I'll be the first to admit that the Euro isn't doing well, but Brexit lowered the Euro to USD from 1.13 to 1.10 right after it happened and not much has changed since. I don't see how the pound has come out stronger compared to the Euro after the referendum.
4102
« on: July 19, 2016, 05:25:10 AM »
"Assault weapon" is a category conjured up by media outlets and used to describe any weapon that looks militaristic or generally scary, because actually using the term "assault rifle" would make their claims factually incorrect. Assault weapon is a useful category because, having no actual meaning, it allows the user to spew complete bullshit without ever technically lying. As much as I dislike the term assault weapon, that's not really true. The term is widely attributed to gun violence researchers and legislators starting in the 80's and carrying on through the 90's. While the details sometimes differ, it is commonly accepted in scholarly literature and legislation at both the federal and state level to cover semi-automatic firearms using detachable magazines, a pistol grip and collapsible stock, sometimes supplemented by certain other features which are frequently considered to serve combat purposes. It's true that it's a vague and often abused term, but I can see why it was coined.
4103
« on: July 18, 2016, 06:25:43 PM »
Got a link to more highlights, Verb? I haven't been able to watch a lot of it live (saw some Tekken, Melee and Mortal Kombat) so that'd be nice.
4104
« on: July 18, 2016, 05:54:42 PM »
Glad to hear some good news, even though I'm cautious. Offers are just that, and the growth is considerably lower than what has been the past few years. Others are also reporting different things, such as 800k job offers lost in the weeks after the referendum compared to last year, 3/4ths of major firms surveyed potentially planning changes to their recruitment policies if the uncertainty would remain, numerous high profile deals cancelled or put on hold and British unemployment projected as continuing to rise.
Let's hope this translates into something good, as I feel the recent Brexit feedback has been rather negative.
4105
« on: July 18, 2016, 03:56:00 AM »
The Pokemon Go team has to sort their shit out. The servers are trash and all nearby pokemon are stuck at 3 paws distance.
4106
« on: July 17, 2016, 05:16:27 PM »
Wait, I thought Trump supported planned parenthood.
As far as I understand, it's basically "planned parenthood does some good stuff, but abortion is bad so defund it all anyways".
4107
« on: July 17, 2016, 04:48:13 PM »
Talking about the healthcare thing specifically, he most definitely does have a fairly specific plan so I'm not sure what you mean there.
As for things such as "he's pro gun" and "his immigration policies" and "he supports locally governed education" and "his tax plans", those are things I agree with on for the most part. I understand for you these aren't good things but they're not objectively bad to everyone.
As for things such as "he's anti-abortion" and "he supports torture", those are things I do not agree with him on. Although Planned Parenthood is another matter entirely.
As for the other things, I've seen a lot of untrue smear-type stuff get pushed as fact and it's frustrating. It's very difficult to have an honest conversation with people about Trump because it seems that hardly anybody legitimately knows what are things he's actually said and things which have either been taken out of context or things he didn't say at all. The worst is satirical/joking statements he's made which people have taken as fact. That's where a lot of the rest of the list comes from. I'm not so keen to defend him on that as the foot-in-mouth thing he's had for the last year has been getting on my nerves but it helps to know which is which.
So that's just my perspective on a lot of this. To say that you personally dislike XYZ is fine but to say XYZ is objectively bad ("he's pro gun", etc.) isn't. Although I did ask you how you felt personally, so it's whatever.
And of course this is the poll thread but there aren't a lot of good Trump threads in Serious right now.
I disagree that this plan is sufficient. My gripe lies specifically with the universal nature of health care. His plan does not appear to be much more than "open the market and deregulate most of it", which could lead to major predatory practices and the consumer being fucked over majorly. As far as I can tell, the only thing he actually says about accessible health care for all is (and I quote) " We must review basic options for Medicaid and work with states to ensure that those who want healthcare coverage can have it", which is immediately followed by "Block-grant Medicaid to the states" allowing individual states to set their own standards. I'm sorry, but to me that is not a sound plan. My previous comment was an obvious exaggeration and aimed at what he says during his speeches, but I don't think the underlying point was wrong. While his argument about price transparency is solid, I think his plan is simply one of deregulation which will ultimately benefit the corporations more than the people and, again, more vagueness. I never said any of his policies are objectively bad. You can argue that killing babies and black people in the street isn't even objectively bad and easily say that no policy is objectively bad for everyone. You're asking me why I think Trump is such a terrible candidate. This is why. Could you point out which parts of my post are wrong? If I'm taking things out of context or am misinterpreting things he's said, which ones are they? I have yet to see any redeeming qualities of Trump. And that is saying something. I think he is a populist moron (or at least pretends to be one) banking on largely gullible voters and empty promises that will ultimately only serve his own interests. And in the end, it kind of blows my mind that people would consider voting for him.
4108
« on: July 17, 2016, 03:53:16 PM »
I understand you dislike him and that you share the general sentiment that they're all bad. What I don't actually know is why specifically you dislike him. I simply think he is a horrible person and would make for a terrible leader, doing little to nothing for his people and country. The man is a populist deliberately targeting the misguided, uneducated and poorly informed by playing on their fears. He might not actually be a moron, but he presents himself as one. His rhetoric is one of empty promises, lies and emotion. He's loud, intolerant, disrespectful, a notorious liar, bully, fraud and has very little involvement with facts or actual sound reasoning. The man will serve no interests but those of his own and his corporate peers, despite the image he tries to paint of him being the common man who will get rid of bureaucrats and clear up politics. I just think he would make a terrible president.
That's basically every comment I've seen about him summed up. I'm curious as to which things policy-wise you dislike.
He's anti-abortion and wants to defund planned parenthood. His policies on immigration, banning groups from entering the country and building a wall. His foreign policy and plans of asserting military force globally. He's pro gun. He supports torture. His tax plans. He is not outspoken in support of universal health care and thinks vaccines can cause autism. He supports mass surveilance and violations of privacy. He supports the death penalty and strict punishment rather than rehabilitation. He does not believe in global warming and generally opposes rules to protect the environment. He supports locally governed education rather than common standards and educational cuts. And so forth and so forth. But I believe that him as a person is almost as important as his policies. Trump says what he thinks people want to hear. He changes his opinion frequently. And even more worrisome are his "plans" and how people support them. Trump rarely has a plan, instead he has an incredibly vague and broad statements that could appease anyone. "Oh, health care? Well Obamacare is terrible. Just terrible. I will improve it. Just believe me when I say I will, okay? I can do this. The details are still being worked on, but it will be better. It will be higher quality, cheaper, more accessible and just amazing, okay? This will happen." I think other candidates are simply better people who will do a better job at presidency. In addition, I think their policies are generally better than Trump's typical vague and undecided "Make America Great Again... somehow" rhetoric.
4109
« on: July 17, 2016, 03:20:34 PM »
I understand you dislike him and that you share the general sentiment that they're all bad. What I don't actually know is why specifically you dislike him. I simply think he is a horrible person and would make for a terrible leader, doing little to nothing for his people and country. The man is a populist deliberately targeting the misguided, uneducated and poorly informed by playing on their fears. He might not actually be a moron, but he presents himself as one. His rhetoric is one of empty promises, lies and emotion. He's loud, intolerant, disrespectful, a notorious liar, bully, fraud and has very little involvement with facts or actual sound reasoning. The man will serve no interests but those of his own and his corporate peers, despite the image he tries to paint of him being the common man who will get rid of bureaucrats and clear up politics. I just think he would make a terrible president.
4110
« on: July 17, 2016, 02:31:50 PM »
I just realized I never voted in that one. Literally anyone but Trump is where my vote goes.
I get way more enjoyment out of supporting a candidate than going "anyone but XYZ" tbh
I'm curious about your general line of thinking on this though
American politics are typically pretty shitty. This election around, they are especially shit. All main candidates are pretty shit. One candidate, Trump, is even shittier than all the others. Choosing between one pile of shit and another even bigger, more disgusting and foul steaming pile of shit, I will choose for the lesser pile of shit. And that's why I would vote for literally any other candidate than Trump.
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