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Messages - More Than Mortal

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2911
Serious / Re: Egoist anarchism in Wizards of Waverly Place
« on: November 30, 2015, 09:11:02 PM »
Stirner would tell you that responsibility is a spook
And I'd call upon Stirner to answer for the clear benefits that responsibility and duty has on society.
Stirner would tell you that society is a spook too
And I'd ask him why he has an issue with the mathematical function of summation.

2912
Serious / Re: Egoist anarchism in Wizards of Waverly Place
« on: November 30, 2015, 09:06:43 PM »
Stirner would tell you that responsibility is a spook
And I'd call upon Stirner to answer for the clear benefits that responsibility and duty has on society.

2913
Serious / Re: Egoist anarchism in Wizards of Waverly Place
« on: November 30, 2015, 08:52:39 PM »
> believing people will behave responsibly without set institutions with the power of enforcement

shiggy diggy

2914
Serious / Russia is aligning itself with the Kurds
« on: November 30, 2015, 02:16:05 PM »
I don't normally use Al Jazeera, but fuck it.

Quote
Russia is striking back after a "stab in the back by an accomplice to terrorists" by changing the "game" in Syria.

Moscow's retaliation is not just about severing economic and diplomatic ties. It is pursuing a policy that could tie Turkey's hands in Syria.

Ankara never received international backing for a safe zone across its border, but Russia has now ruled that out.

The deployment of S-400 anti-air missiles means Russia has effectively imposed a no-fly zone over Syria.

And now, Moscow seems to be moving closer to a group that has been the US-led coalition's main ground force in Syria - a group which Turkey, itself a member of that coalition, calls "terrorists".

The Syrian Kurdish forces (YPG) is a US-backed Kurdish group that has pushed the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) back from areas along the border with Turkey.

In an attempt to change the solely "Kurdish face" of anti-ISIL ground troops, it aligned with some Arab brigades to form "the Syria Democratic Forces" (SDF).

No doubt a further strengthened YPG will anger Turkey, which has long feared that Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria would stir up similar sentiments among its own Kurdish population.

The SDF are now engaged in a fierce battle with Turkey-backed opposition factions in what is considered to be an important corner of Syria - the northern countryside of Aleppo.

To be more specific: the area west of the Euphrates River, which Turkey calls a red line.

The SDF captured some opposition-controlled towns close to the Turkish border of Kilis - known in Syria as Bab al-Salameh, an important lifeline for rebel groups.

Russian air strikes have been targeting the area for days now.

US guarantees

Control there would allow the YPG to link predominantly Kurdish villages in the north, like Afrin, to areas under its administration from the town of Kobane to the Iraqi border.

To do this, the YPG must first take control of Jarablous, an ISIL-controlled town along Turkey's border.

There was talk of a US-backed Syrian Kurd offensive in Jarablous in the summer. That never happened, as Turkey threatened a cross-border operation.

Ankara apparently got the guarantees it wanted from the US.

The Kurds won't advance in the Aleppo region, and in return the coalition would be given access to Turkey's Incirlik air base from where it can launch raids against ISIL.

Days before the Russian plane was shot down, the US said it would start an operation with Turkey to finish securing the northern Syrian border area to cut off the remaining ISIL lifeline. Since then, there has been no talk about this military operation.

Bigger picture

The rules may now have changed. The YPG has still not pushed west of the Euphrates, but along with its allies, and with the help of Russian strikes, the SDF are threatening Turkey-backed opposition groups in another key border crossing, Kilis, west of Jarablous.

Losing control of the northern countryside of Aleppo would be a setback for the opposition. Turkey, too, would lose influence.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be eyeing an even bigger victory. He called on the Assad government and the political wing of the YPG to unite. This has still not happened - at least not officially.

But Syrian Kurdish officials have said they are ready to work with anyone fighting ISIL, and anyone who works for a united, secular and democratic Syria.

Such an alliance would change the battlefield and the balance of power on the ground.

2915
The Flood / Re: Is faking a mental disorder considered a mental disorder?
« on: November 30, 2015, 12:08:30 PM »
Serious malingering is a sign of antisocial personality disorder.

2916
The Flood / Re: How do you pronounce Jaguar?
« on: November 30, 2015, 08:51:47 AM »
Yeah, nobody here says Jag you are.
That's mad; Jag-YOU-Ar is the RP way of saying it. Jag-war is American.

2917
The Flood / Re: How do you pronounce Jaguar?
« on: November 30, 2015, 07:49:24 AM »
People pronounce it in other ways? I always heard Jagwar
The fuck? Aren't you British?

2918
Serious / Re: Developments- I am a theist.
« on: November 30, 2015, 07:45:39 AM »
Empiricism and faith do not mesh. I'm okay with that.
It's not just a case of them not meshing, it's a case of the former destroying the latter. If you base your religious beliefs wholly on faith, then you have nothing of epistemic value to say; just look at your own justification for it: you "feel" something.

Who cares? So do schizophrenics. Incorrigible propositions cannot be extended to make synthetic claims about the outside world, let alone ones about a supernatural entity.

2919
Serious / Re: Developments- I am a theist.
« on: November 30, 2015, 07:42:33 AM »
Check out C. S. Lewis' Mere Christianity for a starting point to Abrahamic theology.
You know, I've had that book for a long time. Haven't got around to reading it just yet, though.

2920
Serious / Re: Developments- I am a theist.
« on: November 29, 2015, 05:02:15 PM »
Bullshit.

2921
Serious / Re: “There’s no such thing as safe drugs."
« on: November 29, 2015, 09:01:46 AM »
I'm inclined to sort of agree. Everybody likes to talk about how weed isn't addictive, at least physiologically, but the NIH reports something like 30pc of the ~9pc of adults who smoke marijuana exhibit addictive behaviour.

It's all well and good saying "Know your limits", but some people are just incapable of it.

2922
We're approaching the time when undesirable groups, such as ISIS, has a minimal nuclear capacity. Dirty dombs in cities, perhaps even Western cities, is bound to be a reality provided they don't implode. We're also approaching a time when undesirable states, such as Iran, could develop a significant nuclear capacity.

2923
The Flood / let me not lie
« on: November 25, 2015, 09:21:49 PM »
i'm fucken STONED

2924
Serious / Re: Recent shifts in any of your views? Let's talk about them.
« on: November 25, 2015, 02:48:05 PM »
I get more conservative as time passes, culturally.
When are you going to convert to the one true ideology, Meta?
And what would that be?

2925
Serious / Re: Recent shifts in any of your views? Let's talk about them.
« on: November 25, 2015, 02:39:53 PM »
I get more conservative as time passes, culturally.

2926
Serious / Re: Is the West in decline?
« on: November 24, 2015, 05:44:47 PM »
I was thinking more of a societal/civic/cultural decline.

2927
Serious / Is the West in decline?
« on: November 24, 2015, 12:00:17 PM »
Does the trend worry you? Why do you think the West is(n't) in decline?

Will post my thoughts shortly.

2928
Serious / Re: Opinions on compulsory voting?
« on: November 24, 2015, 11:10:41 AM »
Tend to agree.

2929
Serious / Re: What would be your ideal way of dealing with ISIS
« on: November 20, 2015, 01:38:20 AM »
Constant aerial bombardments on strategic locations like Raqqa and Dabiq, as well as some defensive bombing in Kurdistan. I wouldn't mind seeing boots and armour on the ground in Syria, but it would probably just devolve into a proxy war between the US and Russia.

Nuclear option also shouldn't be off the table if Daesh somehow get hold of dirty bombs or inter-continental missiles which, thankfully, won't happen.

2930
Serious / Re: A services led economy vs automation
« on: November 19, 2015, 12:44:12 PM »
Though I would have to ask you Meta what about the focus that businesses may become more prevalent due to the decrease in capital requirement to start up a business.
A less capital-intensive economy could see lower real growth rates, but also the added benefit of increased competition. Hard to say, I haven't studied that part of the economy much; although corporate governance is interesting.

2931
Serious / Re: A services led economy vs automation
« on: November 19, 2015, 12:19:10 PM »
He agreed that the day is coming when all but the elite few would be let go and our customers would just go online and shop for what they want.
He's wrong. The only concerns coming out of increased automation are inequality, not structural unemployment. It just cannot happen.

2932
Serious / Re: Do External Factors Play a Role in Religious Extremism?
« on: November 16, 2015, 01:25:19 AM »
Poverty and war definitely contribute to people becoming caught up in any ideology which offers reward for their suffering and justification for their hatred of whoever is seemingly responsible for their struggle. That ideology is not limited to Islam, but radical Islam being inherently violent and it's followers uneducated and often illiterate makes it that much more compelling.
Terrorists are more likely to be well-educated and middle-class or wealthy; there's no link between poverty and education and terrorism.

2933
Serious / Re: France Announces Major Bombing on Raqqa
« on: November 15, 2015, 04:01:21 PM »
Fuck 'em up, lads.

2934
Have you never seen the White House in person before
. . .

No.

2935
Serious / Statistics 101: Measures of central tendency
« on: November 15, 2015, 07:04:15 AM »
Maths is one of those subjects where you either love it, or hate it. I tend to hate it, but I can get along with it well enough if it has some kind of practical application. Yet, despite many people hating it, a lot of people also wish they were better at it; it's obviously a skill people desire.

Since I do statistics (econometrics, actually, but it's pretty broad) I figured I'd combine the desire to be better at maths by explaining it's practical application in terms of a specific area of study. So, if you want to know more about statistics, then hopefully this will be a pretty decent guide. It will follow the same trajectory as my lectures have taken, and I will be using old notes and my textbook as a way of guiding myself. Also, me being able to explain certain things will probably help me.

Measures of Central Tendency

So, we're starting with the really basic stuff. Let's get some simple notation down:

- Observations of a variable are denoted by a letter such as X (or Y, or Z).

- The index "i" denotes a generic observation of that variable. i takes on the value of 1, 2, 3, 4 and so on so forth. So, X1 would be the first observation. X4 the fourth.

When it comes to measures of central tendency, we are concerned with what the typical value of X is in a given data set. The most common answer is to compute the mean of the variable's observations, which is denoted by X with a bar above it. Or, when typed, as Xbar.

As most of you probably know, the mean is defined as the sum of all the given values (or observations) divided by the overall quantity of those values.

Written mathematically, Xbar = ΣXi / n.

The E-looking letter is a capital sigma, which is a summation notation. All it means is that we sum every given instance of X in the data set. Then, of course, we divide it by n which is the quantity of observations.

The summation notation is a very useful tool; it can help organise calculations into a much more manageable layout. Say we have some constant, "a" (usually, constants are denoted by Greek letters such as alpha, but I can't be fucked to copy-paste it every time). If, for instance, we have Σ a Xi, this is essentially the equivalent to aX1 + aX2 + aX3 + . . . + aXn.

This, however, can be re-arranged into the much more manageable aΣXi. This saves you having to compute every instance of aXi individually. This is called simplifying the expression. Knowing how to rearrange equations in order to simplify them can be very useful and time saving, as I will later demonstrate. But, for now, have a go at rearranging some yourself and I'll put the answers in spoilers.

A) Simplify the expression Σ(8 + 3Xi + 7Yi - 5Zi).

Spoiler
First of all, the summation notation can be placed in front of each part of the expression. Thus, it becomes:

- Σ8 + Σ3Xi +Σ7Yi - Σ5Zi.

It can thus be simplified further to:

- 8n + 3ΣXi + 7ΣYi - 5ΣZi.

Remember, Σ8 simply means we need to sum 8 for every instance of Xi, which is denoted by n. Accordingly, Σ8 can simply be reduced to "an eight for each individual observation"; or, 8n. It can be difficult to remember than the summation notation includes the entire range of observations involved (unless denoted otherwise). In order to make this clearer, it is acceptable to write Σ with a subscript "i". This makes it clear you are summing for all instances.

For the final three parts of the simplification, it is worth moving the constant (either 3, 7 or 5 in this case) to before the summation notation. Allow me to prove they are equivalent, if you cannot see the logic:

Say we have three observations on variable X, and their values are 1, 2 and 3. And, we have a constant: 3.

- Written as "Σ3Xi", we are essentially performing this calculation: (1 x 3) + (2 x 3) + (3 x 3) = 3 + 6 + 9 = 18.

Or, we can simply move the constant to before the summation to make it (1 + 2 + 3) x 3 which again equals 18. This saves you multiplying every instance of X by 3, and allows you to simply multiply the entire summation.

So, let's return to our definition of the mean:

Xbar = ΣXi / n.

This, however, is not the only measure of central tendency. The other common answer is the median, which is simply the middle value of a ranked set of observations. The mean is used more commonly than the median, but it's important to remember that sometimes the latter may be preferable; the mean is more easily distorted by extreme values.

For instance, say you have some data on income in a given town and you want to find the typical value. Yet, unfortunately, Donald Trump lives in this town. The mean would be skewed upwards due to the large value of Trump's income, whereas the median would remain the same as the middle observation remains the middle observation regardless of how high Trump's income may be in a given set of values.

If n (the number of observations) is odd, then the median is as follows: M = X(n + 1) / 2. Say n = 11, then M = X(11 + 1) / 2 = X6. The median, therefore, is the sixth observation of the variable.

If n is even, then M = Xn / 2 + X(n / 2) + 1 / 2. If n = 126, then n / 2 = 63 and (n / 2) + 1 = 64. Therefore, M = X63 + X64 / 2. Or, the 63rd and 64th observations of the variable divided by 2.

Now that you've read through all of that, try some questions:

B) The percentage marks of a class of 12 students is as follows: 80, 16, 11, 71, 85, 95, 12, 71, 8, 15  31, 25. Calculate both the mean and the median.

C) The amount of benefits, X, received by fifteen individuals in a given street, in a given week, in a given currency is: 67.73, 121.36, 54.32, 36.24, 176.56, 201.34, 97.26, 168.93, 35.61, 145.57, 76.58, 213.06, 232.55, 69.47 and 215.95. Calculate the mean and the median.

I'll wait for somebody to hit on the correct answers before posting them in a spoiler, so don't be lazy cunts. Next post, whenever it is, will deal with measures of variance and dispersion.

2936
Serious / Re: College Girl Solves The Student Loan Crisis
« on: November 15, 2015, 06:05:23 AM »
Didn't know my absence had been noted.

I've had a bunch of exams and assignments recently, and I have a fucking statistics exam Monday evening.
People thought you killed yourself lol
Fuck me.

This happens every time I take a hiatus.

2937
Serious / Re: Shootings/explosions/hostages held in Paris. [129 dead]
« on: November 15, 2015, 06:04:44 AM »
Spoiler
God damn. Shit like that gets to you.

2938


One is the North facade, the other the South facade. I've only just realised this. Anybody else?

2939
Serious / Re: College Girl Solves The Student Loan Crisis
« on: November 14, 2015, 10:35:13 PM »
welcome back by the way
Didn't know my absence had been noted.

I've had a bunch of exams and assignments recently, and I have a fucking statistics exam Monday evening.

2940
Serious / Re: College Girl Solves The Student Loan Crisis
« on: November 14, 2015, 10:19:03 PM »
How does this support the conclusion that social benefits of higher education isn't justified by tax funding? All this study concludes is that there is a tangible, positive effect from increasing the supply of college-educated workers.
"A percentage point increase in the supply of college graduates raises high school drop-outs' wages by
1.9%, high school graduates' wages by 1.6%, and college graduates wages by 0.4%."

Those social benefits are incredibly small.

While I generally agree, you can't call that an empirical conclusion. It's just your subjective interpretation.
Wait, I fucked up. I mean the magnitude of the externalities is a question for which we have an empirical answer. My judgement that they are too small to justify a general tax are indeed subjective. That wasn't very clear.

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