Post your election predictions

 
Verbatim
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Alright, the dust has largely settled, post mortem time on why it went wrong for Kamala:

>The vast majority of exit polls are indicating this was about the economy. Whether you can attribute that to the Biden administration or the post pandemic recovery period is utterly irrelevant to the average voter. It happened under Biden's watch. Voters associated Kamala as the continuity candidate for the current state of economic affairs. She was doomed from the start. The Trump team nailed it on the head by hammering home the simple question of; are you better off now or when I was in charge?

>She lost the POC voting bloc, particularly with males. Latino and black men abandoned her in the droves. I think this is largely down to her west coast elite upbringing just not resonating with POC men. It also doesn't help that she was the Attorney General of California, and if I'm not mistaken, locked a lot of POC men up during her tenure. Not a great image for securing POC votes.

Just genuinely a horrendous pick from the Democrats in hindsight. I'm starting to think she might actually be worse than Hillary.
Of course she was worse than Hillary—let's not forget she was an "also ran" in 2020. She was never considered a serious candidate for anything; when Biden stepped down and the DNC didn't hold a primary, it had the same energy of crossing their fingers and hoping things would just work out.

Quote
>She relied to heavily on vibes and not enough on policy. In retrospect I really think we should have been sounding the alarm bells as her short lived campaign went on. Seriously, I never once heard of a policy position or a concrete step by step plan on how she was going to fix the economy or deal with Gaza if she was to take over. She really just thought coconut memes and brat girl summer tik tok edits were gonna win her the white house.
This is untrue, however. Kamala had several policy positions which she discussed frequently, such as
  • Expanding the child tax credit, and wanting to cut taxes for middle class families in general
  • Providing first time home buyers with $25K to help with down payments
  • ACA expansion
  • She wanted to stop price fixing by landlords
  • Protecting and strengthening Medicare and Social Security
  • Restoring Roe v Wade
...among others.
You can criticize these policy positions by saying she didn't have a concrete step-by-step plan—but I would argue this is totally irrelevant and wouldn't have made a difference. I think you nailed it on your first and third bullet points. She was doomed from the start. The MAGA cult is literally just too big now, and I genuinely believe that we were going to lose no matter what. But she DID discuss policy and she had several of them, especially compared to Trump who had tariffs, and uh.... uh.... uh.... wanting to glass Palestine?... Wanting to kill minorities?... Trump was the one who lacked policies, but policy literally doesn't matter anymore.

The most salient observation you can make, I think, is that she was a generally lame and uncharismatic woman running against an extremely charismatic cult leader in an increasingly racist and misogynistic country where being a liberal is seen as being soft and weak and uncool (lefties hating liberals so much certainly doesn't help—thanks Hasan Piker, you fucking piece of shit). The democrats have utterly forgotten the concept of charisma—they don't know how to be inspiring anymore. Trump knows how to inspire people with sub 100 IQs, and that's how you win. In this country, that has proven to be an unbeatable strategy.
Last Edit: November 06, 2024, 03:55:25 PM by Verbatim


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emigrate or degenerate. the choice is yours
Alright, the dust has largely settled, post mortem time on why it went wrong for Kamala:

>The vast majority of exit polls are indicating this was about the economy. Whether you can attribute that to the Biden administration or the post pandemic recovery period is utterly irrelevant to the average voter. It happened under Biden's watch. Voters associated Kamala as the continuity candidate for the current state of economic affairs. She was doomed from the start. The Trump team nailed it on the head by hammering home the simple question of; are you better off now or when I was in charge?

>She lost the POC voting bloc, particularly with males. Latino and black men abandoned her in the droves. I think this is largely down to her west coast elite upbringing just not resonating with POC men. It also doesn't help that she was the Attorney General of California, and if I'm not mistaken, locked a lot of POC men up during her tenure. Not a great image for securing POC votes.

Just genuinely a horrendous pick from the Democrats in hindsight. I'm starting to think she might actually be worse than Hillary.
Of course she was worse than Hillary—let's not forget she was an "also ran" in 2020. She was never considered a serious candidate for anything; when Biden stepped down and the DNC didn't hold a primary, it had the same energy of crossing their fingers and hoping things would just work out.

Quote
>She relied to heavily on vibes and not enough on policy. In retrospect I really think we should have been sounding the alarm bells as her short lived campaign went on. Seriously, I never once heard of a policy position or a concrete step by step plan on how she was going to fix the economy or deal with Gaza if she was to take over. She really just thought coconut memes and brat girl summer tik tok edits were gonna win her the white house.
This is untrue, however. Kamala had several policy positions which she discussed frequently, such as
  • Expanding the child tax credit, and wanting to cut taxes for middle class families in general
  • Providing first time home buyers with $25K to help with down payments
  • ACA expansion
  • She wanted to stop price fixing by landlords
  • Protecting and strengthening Medicare and Social Security
  • Restoring Roe v Wade
...among others.
You can criticize these policy positions by saying she didn't have a concrete step-by-step plan—but I would argue this is totally irrelevant and wouldn't have made a difference. I think you nailed it on your first and third bullet points. She was doomed from the start. The MAGA cult is literally just too big now, and I genuinely believe that we were going to lose no matter what. But she DID discuss policy and she had several of them, especially compared to Trump who had tariffs, and uh.... uh.... uh.... wanting to glass Palestine?... Wanting to kill minorities?... Trump was the one who lacked policies, but policy literally doesn't matter anymore.

The most salient observation you can make, I think, is that she was a generally lame and uncharismatic woman running against an extremely charismatic cult leader in an increasingly racist and misogynistic country where being a liberal is seen as being soft and weak and uncool. The democrats have utterly forgotten the concept of charisma—they don't know how to be inspiring anymore. Trump knows how to inspire people with sub 100 IQs, and that's how you win. In this country, that has proven to be an unbeatable strategy.
Yeah perhaps I should have rephrased "policy" with "messaging". I don't doubt she had cogent policies that would have actually benefitted the American people but she just never hammered them home. Winning in politics is 50% policy and 50% brand image it seems.

And yeah, in fairness to her, she literally only had two months to run a campaign, but what you've just listed is the first I'm hearing of most of those policies. Go back to 2020 Biden and he couldn't stop bellowing his actions plan from the rooftops. Her communication strategy was just plain bad.


E | Ascended Posting Riot
 
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There was no winning move to make anyway considering we're about 12 years out from the beginning of mass resource collapse and nobody anywhere wants to acknowledge that. But I don't imagine trump'll make things any easier.

I find it hard to believe such a conman ever could have a voter base to begin with, but that's only because I'm forgetting the rule. People are stupid, and you can't underestimate that or foolproof anything against it.

I guess the only upside here is that the US will probably get an acceleration to chaos, which means the faster shit burns down the sooner the cycle will start all over again.


 
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Goodness gracious, great balls of lightning!
The entire Central Valley (besides Sacramento) being Red in the 2024 election is shocking to me. Usually its just Kern, Tulare, and Kings counties that are known for being Republican. The further north you go, the more Democrat pro counties you encounter. Would never expect shitholes like Fresno, Manteca, Merced, and Stockton to flip.


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The entire Central Valley (besides Sacramento) being Red in the 2024 election is shocking to me. Usually its just Kern, Tulare, and Kings counties that are known for being Republican. The further north you go, the more Democrat pro counties you encounter. Would never expect shitholes like Fresno, Manteca, Merced, and Stockton to flip.


it shocked me to learn that my home county, san bernardino, voted red. i checked the standings on tuesday night, and saw that it was very close, i think harris was only leading with, like, 52% or something, so i thought to myself dang that's closer than i imagined

next day it was red by a large margin and i was like what in the world

i talked to about it with a friend (who's a bit more into politics than i am) and he was like yeah SB is more red than you think

it genuinely baffled me
Last Edit: November 08, 2024, 02:32:31 PM by alphy


 
Jono
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Goodness gracious, great balls of lightning!
The entire Central Valley (besides Sacramento) being Red in the 2024 election is shocking to me. Usually its just Kern, Tulare, and Kings counties that are known for being Republican. The further north you go, the more Democrat pro counties you encounter. Would never expect shitholes like Fresno, Manteca, Merced, and Stockton to flip.


it shocked me to learn that my home county, san bernardino, voted red. i checked the standings on tuesday night, and saw that it was very close, i think harris was only leading with, like, 52% or something, so i thought to myself dang that's closer than i imagined

next day it was red by a large margin and i was like what in the world

i talked to about it with a friend (who's a bit more into politics than i am) and he was like yeah SB is more red than you think

it genuinely baffled me
I think part of it has to do with people from LA and other areas where the cost of living is insanely high. They're tired of the same old policies and move somewhere else when nothing changes. That's why Nevada and Arizona were important swing states because of all the California transplants.


maverick | Legendary Invincible!
 
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So every state has now been called. Kamala lost 6 states that Biden had won, and the popular vote currently seems to have shifted roughly 6* points to Trump. This is coming off of a midterm election where democrats historically overperformed. Meanwhile, democratic senate candidates have won in every swing state except PA, and the damage in the House has been minimal.

Do I think this means that Kamala was a singularly bad candidate? Honestly, I don't. Obviously Biden dropping out in the 11th hour and endorsing someone with lower approval ratings than him (at the time) seems questionable, but I'm not sure how much better anyone else would have performed with these conditions. I think that anyone would have been somewhat of a lamb to slaughter and it likely would have been very chaotic to nominate someone besides Kamala. Maybe one of them could have eked out a win through the blue wall, idk.

I don't think there's any silver bullet that would have changed the outcome but they really should have figured out a counterargument on inflation. This is something that has frustrated me for years and I kind of just became numb to it. Everything they tried was far too late and really pathetic. Imagine if Trump presided over record inflation (although we may not have to imagine for too long). He would have immediately become defensive, passed blame onto everyone but himself, and his talking points would become conservative dogma. Just look at voters giving him a pass on the pandemic for how well this can work.

If there's any silver lining to be found here, it's that we consistently see republicans underperforming Trump. And while democrats are on a soul searching mission these next years, I'm sure Republicans will do absolutely no introspection as to why this is the case.
Last Edit: November 25, 2024, 02:41:14 PM by maverick


 
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Hmm...
My state, MO, is clearly very stupid. We voted yes on Abortion and a minimum wage increase, but voted for Hawley and Trump and what looks like a very very anti-trans governor. Progressive policies and extreme conservative people.


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If I'm not here, I'm doing photography. Or I'm asleep. Or in lockdown. One of those three, anyway.

The current titlebar/avatar setup is just normal.
Godspeed Americans

Speedrunning societal regression any%


 
𝑺𝒆𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒅𝑪𝒍𝒂𝒔𝒔
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"With the first link, the chain is forged. The first speech censured, the first thought forbidden, the first freedom denied, chains us all irrevocably."
—Judge Aaron Satie
——Carmen
My thoughts, for anyone interested







alphy | Legendary Invincible!
 
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My thoughts, for anyone interested






i hope you stay safe out there! like you said, i hope nothing extreme happens, but who knows with some of these fools

no one should have to feel scared for their life/rights yet here we are


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If you know, you know.
The people he is selecting for different departments.
Is one of them really a pedo? How does that align with the 'protect the children' mantra?


maverick | Legendary Invincible!
 
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Is one of them really a pedo? How does that align with the 'protect the children' mantra?
He’s being investigated and nothing’s been proven yet, but still.

What they say is so often contradictory that it’s pretty irrelevant. At the end of the day it’s just a really dumb, autocratic movement that’s mainly concerned with power.


 
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Hmm...
The people he is selecting for different departments.
Is one of them really a pedo? How does that align with the 'protect the children' mantra?
As Bo said:

Quote
And every politician, every cop on the street
Protects the interests of the pedophilic corporate elite


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Am I missing some positives about him?
genuinely, no.

anyone who supports trump at this point in time is simply an anti-american cultist in support of an increasingly demented 34-time convicted felon, seditious traitor, rapist, and hateful bigot

his followers will tell you things like
- "he's going to fix the economy" (even though tariffs are his only economic policy)
- "he's anti-woke / he's not politically correct"
- "he's going to solve the immigrant crisis"
but these are just distractions built on falsehoods. the fact of the matter is that anyone who supports this man is in a cult. it's either that, or they're an ontologically evil person. the former could be (charitably) described as victims of their lack of education and susceptibility to propaganda. the latter should be considered enemies of the state.

it cannot be overstated that Trump has literally zero redeeming qualities to discuss—and even if he did have any, there is simply no overcoming the mountain of things that damn him.
i do not recommend attempting to reason with any of his supporters; most of them are too far gone. all we can do is hope he loses and fucks off forever.

Look at it this way, we're at least one step closer of your goal of putting all life out of it's misery.


E | Ascended Posting Riot
 
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Quote
Am I missing some positives about him?
genuinely, no.

anyone who supports trump at this point in time is simply an anti-american cultist in support of an increasingly demented 34-time convicted felon, seditious traitor, rapist, and hateful bigot

his followers will tell you things like
- "he's going to fix the economy" (even though tariffs are his only economic policy)
- "he's anti-woke / he's not politically correct"
- "he's going to solve the immigrant crisis"
but these are just distractions built on falsehoods. the fact of the matter is that anyone who supports this man is in a cult. it's either that, or they're an ontologically evil person. the former could be (charitably) described as victims of their lack of education and susceptibility to propaganda. the latter should be considered enemies of the state.

it cannot be overstated that Trump has literally zero redeeming qualities to discuss—and even if he did have any, there is simply no overcoming the mountain of things that damn him.
i do not recommend attempting to reason with any of his supporters; most of them are too far gone. all we can do is hope he loses and fucks off forever.

Look at it this way, we're at least one step closer of your goal of putting all life out of it's misery.

Do they gotta make it so fucking miserable though? It's not enough that the default experience is debt enslavement and dying in a gutter somewhere since it's cheaper than going to the hospital.

Can't they go for a more balanced approach? "Hey, we made society cool and semi balanced with no long term danger of total industrial or population collapse, or major conflicts, and by the way, if it still sucks for you here's the opt out button free of charge no strings attached."

At the rate we're going we rolled a crude version of the goddam Fallout timeline.


Ingy | Mythic Inconceivable!
 
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People who support Trump here - why?
All news I see of him shows him doing something objectively bad. Am I missing some positives about him?

I'll provide my opinion as the only center right person still on this site apparently

Economy was better under Trump
No illegal immigration crisis under Trump
A stronger international presence and no foreign wars under Trump (can you imagine Kamala trying to negotiate with Putin or Xi? Yikes)

That's about the gist of it. I think one of the key points in why Trump won is that we have already had a presidential term under Trump. Gays were not shot in the streets and trans people were not corralled into concentration camps. The fears of a fascist regime held more water in 2O16 when we didn't know how he would govern but we survived four years under him and the plain truth is it was really not that bad

It cannot be ignored that Trump won EVERY SINGLE swing state and the entire country is starting to trend red. Listen to your fellow Americans. It's sad to me that leftists are incapable of understanding the very simple grievances of people just wanting more money to afford housing and groceries as well as to feel safe inside their homes. It's a VERY easy idea to understand and empathize with. Sadly, it seems that leftists think democracy will die if they don't win (which is an idea that is more dangerous to democracy than Trump winning). So they cast every Trump voter as evil or malicious when that is just not the case

So is Trump a good presidential candidate? No, I don't think so. I agree with most of the criticism that the left have about him. His treatment of women, his valuing of personal loyalty over loyalty to the country, and his inability to accept defeat. None of that is good. Does that mean you approve of that if you vote for him? No. People are simply looking the measurable outcomes of the Trump presidency and determining that it was better than the measurable outcomes of the Biden presidency

So that's my reasoning for voting for Trump and I feel like it reflects the majority of people who voted for Trump. If people here still think that makes me a member of the nazi party then fine. But I hope this helps to provide an opposing viewpoint and helps in convincing people here that maybe half the country are actually reasonable people and not just the evil goblins they envision in their minds


V | Mythic Inconceivable!
 
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Just message me.
Vien 'Quitonm#1598 is my discord
Yikes


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If I'm not here, I'm doing photography. Or I'm asleep. Or in lockdown. One of those three, anyway.

The current titlebar/avatar setup is just normal.
...

So that's my reasoning for voting for Trump and I feel like it reflects the majority of people who voted for Trump. If people here still think that makes me a member of the nazi party then fine. But I hope this helps to provide an opposing viewpoint and helps in convincing people here that maybe half the country are actually reasonable people and not just the evil goblins they envision in their minds
That doesn't make the majority of Americans sound like Nazis, it makes them sound like fucking idiots.


Solonoid | Mythic Inconceivable!
 
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...

So that's my reasoning for voting for Trump and I feel like it reflects the majority of people who voted for Trump. If people here still think that makes me a member of the nazi party then fine. But I hope this helps to provide an opposing viewpoint and helps in convincing people here that maybe half the country are actually reasonable people and not just the evil goblins they envision in their minds
That doesn't make the majority of Americans sound like Nazis, it makes them sound like fucking idiots.
well, the Nazis were also idiots

lots of Nazi supporters on the ground level were bumbling, incompetent... in America we would call them rednecks, I'm not sure what the German word is


Ingy | Mythic Inconceivable!
 
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Quit crying you'll be fine


 
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This is not the greatest sig in the world, no. This is just a tribute.
Quit crying you'll be fine
nah these tarrifs are gonna fuck up some plans of mine

Really wish that fucking douchebag hadn't missed.


Ingy | Mythic Inconceivable!
 
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Quit crying you'll be fine
nah these tarrifs are gonna fuck up some plans of mine

Really wish that fucking douchebag hadn't missed.

Supply chain disruptions and prices doubling in the past four years haven't already?


 
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This is not the greatest sig in the world, no. This is just a tribute.
Quit crying you'll be fine
nah these tarrifs are gonna fuck up some plans of mine

Really wish that fucking douchebag hadn't missed.

Supply chain disruptions and prices doubling in the past four years haven't already?
we were likely going to get close to a plateau soon. Trade war bullshit is definitely going to cancel that.


Solonoid | Mythic Inconceivable!
 
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Quit crying you'll be fine
nah these tarrifs are gonna fuck up some plans of mine

Really wish that fucking douchebag hadn't missed.

Supply chain disruptions and prices doubling in the past four years haven't already?
we were likely going to get close to a plateau soon. Trade war bullshit is definitely going to cancel that.
some low income parts of the country have been seeing small amounts of deflation in frequently purchased commodities, although this trend hasn't expanded to all product segments in all markets and probably won't

especially now

I wonder if the fed is still going to cut interest rates


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Reading though this thread is hilarious.

MAGA!


 
Verbatim
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Reading though this thread is hilarious.

MAGA!
go rape your wife


Ingy | Mythic Inconceivable!
 
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You know...I'm starting to feel...great again...