Western Illinois University's Mock Election

Septy · November 10, 2015, 09:35:18 AM

Basically since 1975 Western Illinois University has held Mock Elections which have been able to predict the winning presidential candidate with 100% accuracy.

And this years results are in

http://wiumpe.com/electoral/

Thoughts?

PSU · November 10, 2015, 09:36:43 AM

Guess its their first loss since 1975. There is ZERO chance Bernie wins anything. If he does, I'll eat vegan for a year.

DAS B00T x2 · November 10, 2015, 09:38:22 AM

LOL nope

Septy · November 10, 2015, 09:40:44 AM

Quote from: PSU on November 10, 2015, 09:36:43 AM

Guess its their first loss since 1975. There is ZERO chance Bernie wins anything. If he does, I'll eat vegan for a year.

Verb I found you a student

cxfhvxgkcf-56:7 · November 10, 2015, 09:46:02 AM

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Septy · November 10, 2015, 09:47:17 AM

Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 09:46:02 AM

Oklahoma voting blue

Seems odd

Some of the states are probably wrong, but still.

True Turquoise · November 10, 2015, 09:56:39 AM

get out cali

ΚΑΤΑΝΑΛΩΤΗΣ · November 10, 2015, 10:09:50 AM

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ΚΑΤΑΝΑΛΩΤΗΣ · November 10, 2015, 10:11:41 AM

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Nick McIntyre · November 10, 2015, 11:07:14 AM

Quote from: Διομήδης on November 10, 2015, 10:11:41 AM

Also

>Hawaii voting red
>ever

They voted Reagan and Nixon.

Ridiculous Tales · November 10, 2015, 11:47:03 AM

Mississippi voting blue and Hawaii voting red? The fuck is this?

Ridiculous Tales · November 10, 2015, 11:48:40 AM

Quote from: PSU on November 10, 2015, 09:36:43 AM

Guess its their first loss since 1975. There is ZERO chance Bernie wins anything. If he does, I'll eat vegan for a year.

So how mad are you going to be when the Democrats inevitably hold on to the White House for another 8 years?

PSU · November 10, 2015, 12:10:28 PM

Quote from: Jagdtiger on November 10, 2015, 11:48:40 AM

Quote from: PSU on November 10, 2015, 09:36:43 AM
Guess its their first loss since 1975. There is ZERO chance Bernie wins anything. If he does, I'll eat vegan for a year.
So how mad are you going to be when the Democrats inevitably hold on to the White House for another 8 years?

Neither of their candidates will be able to beat Rubio.

Biden would have won. He was the Dems only hope.

DAS B00T x2 · November 10, 2015, 12:19:20 PM

Wait, why is PA white? Did we vote for Gary Johnson?

cxfhvxgkcf-56:7 · November 10, 2015, 12:20:37 PM

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DAS B00T x2 · November 10, 2015, 12:26:37 PM

Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 12:20:37 PM

The state colors are bugging me

Massachusetts red?

Nevada red?

idk man

Maryland is red, not mass.

cxfhvxgkcf-56:7 · November 10, 2015, 12:28:10 PM

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DAS B00T x2 · November 10, 2015, 12:29:59 PM

Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 12:28:10 PM

Quote from: DAS B(⌐■_■)ﾒ on November 10, 2015, 12:26:37 PM
Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 12:20:37 PM
The state colors are bugging me

Massachusetts red?

Nevada red?

idk man
Maryland is red, not mass.
eh what's the difference?

One is a respectable northern state.

The other has Baltimore.

cxfhvxgkcf-56:7 · November 10, 2015, 12:30:41 PM

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DAS B00T x2 · November 10, 2015, 12:31:46 PM

Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 12:30:41 PM

Quote from: DAS B(⌐■_■)ﾒ on November 10, 2015, 12:29:59 PM
Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 12:28:10 PM
Quote from: DAS B(⌐■_■)ﾒ on November 10, 2015, 12:26:37 PM
Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 12:20:37 PM
The state colors are bugging me

Massachusetts red?

Nevada red?

idk man
Maryland is red, not mass.
eh what's the difference?
One is a respectable northern state.

The other has Baltimore.
Massachusetts is bad though

It's like where liberals are made

But they elected R-Money governor.

cxfhvxgkcf-56:7 · November 10, 2015, 12:32:20 PM

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Alternative Facts · November 10, 2015, 12:33:45 PM

This is poorly done.

I can explain more if needed.

DAS B00T x2 · November 10, 2015, 12:33:49 PM

Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 12:32:20 PM

Quote from: DAS B(⌐■_■)ﾒ on November 10, 2015, 12:31:46 PM
Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 12:30:41 PM
Quote from: DAS B(⌐■_■)ﾒ on November 10, 2015, 12:29:59 PM
Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 12:28:10 PM
Quote from: DAS B(⌐■_■)ﾒ on November 10, 2015, 12:26:37 PM
Quote from: The Lord Yardstick on November 10, 2015, 12:20:37 PM
The state colors are bugging me

Massachusetts red?

Nevada red?

idk man
Maryland is red, not mass.
eh what's the difference?
One is a respectable northern state.

The other has Baltimore.
Massachusetts is bad though

It's like where liberals are made
But they elected R-Money governor.
>mormon

Good lord, what's a mormon doing that far east?

Nick McIntyre · November 10, 2015, 04:09:49 PM

Quote from: Fagcicle on November 10, 2015, 12:33:45 PM

This is poorly done.

I can explain more if needed.

Please do.

Alternative Facts · November 10, 2015, 04:26:56 PM

Quote from: Nick McIntyre on November 10, 2015, 04:09:49 PM

Quote from: Fagcicle on November 10, 2015, 12:33:45 PM
This is poorly done.

I can explain more if needed.

Please do.

Fine, let's begin with the most visible problem - the decision of state decisions (Maryland and Illinois going Republican, while Louisiana and Mississippi going Democrat) shows a clear failure to understand political trends and voting demographics in these states.

Let's go back seven years to the 2008 election between McCain and Obama and focus on the two southern states, Louisiana and Mississippi, shall we?

Notice the South - it's a red blockade. Now, forward 4 years to 2012:

Even more red, with North Carolina flipping. Both states also have an extremely strong minority presence (See below) and large wealth disparity conditions, with some of the highest cases of extreme poverty. These groups tend to overwhelmingly vote Democratic, but even Obama, who had large majority of support from said groups, could not flip a dominating, Souther Republican force.

Even if Sanders were to overcome his issues with the black voter base, he wouldn't nearly gain the amount of support that Obama had in the 2008 General (Hope! Change!), and therefore would fail to flip the state. The fact that they think Sanders could cut into the Southern GOP blockade in two of the most Republican states (And not even carry North Carolina, a battleground state and more Democratic) starts to shed doubt on their verdict in the other states.

I'm also curious as to how they got a Sanders/Bush General, and how the information was collected. Septy, if you could link me?