Predict the year the human population goes extinct

Dustin · November 16, 2014, 08:30:08 PM

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Hahahaha very funny Zonda · November 16, 2014, 08:42:45 PM

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Septy · November 16, 2014, 09:18:49 PM

The Lord Slide Rule · November 16, 2014, 09:20:12 PM

mfw chaotic systems and multiple variables.

g💚jira · November 16, 2014, 09:28:24 PM

Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 16, 2014, 09:20:12 PM

mfw chaotic systems and multiple variables.

Magos Domina · November 17, 2014, 06:03:15 AM

Naturally? 2 million years. Though I dont see us lasting 2 more decades

Mat Cauthon · November 17, 2014, 06:04:22 AM

Estimates on when Putin will go nuclear?

Kinder Graham · November 17, 2014, 08:33:55 AM

*looks at cern*

Sandtrap · November 17, 2014, 11:58:26 AM

People are durable. People are adaptive. That's why we exist in the manner that we do today. Because we're extremely adaptive. But we aren't without weakness. So, let's start with those.

We're fucked when it comes to temperature extremes. Too much heat, we die, too much cold, we die. At 0 degrees celcius, a naked human being would die of exposure to the cold in around 20 minutes. With no shelter, or shade in 30 degree weather or above, people die.

Our numbers are a weakness. The more people there are, the bigger the footprint. The bigger the group, the lower the collective IQ. Mob mentality overtakes rational functions.

Food isn't much of an issue for us, because we can eat just about anything. However, the problem is, all of our food is dependant on the sun. Knock that out, and we're fucked completely.

So, take a look at what's happening today. The environment is shifting, accelerating faster in its changes and things can't keep up. Eco systems are being toppled and set off balance. We're building up a nifty collection of toxic chemicals around us in our daily lives, introducing ourselves to new conditions and diseases, as well as polluting the atmosphere. All it would take was one good push.

Assuming the worst were to happen, I'd go with the span of five hundred years.

As the population whittles, the impact of deaths becomes less noticable, and the fight to survive, ironically becomes easier for singular people. But there's a point of no return when you have only a handful of singular people.

If some big disaster happened, the deaths at the beginning would become staggering because of our weakness. Numbers.

The survivors would have an easier time surviving even off limited food or in hostile environments. But one by one, they'd get picked off if the environments grew increasingly extreme.

The death of our species, will in all likelyhood, not be instant. It'll be slow, and drawn out, because of how adaptable and stubborn we are.

Like I said.

500 years.

challengerX · November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM

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rC · November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM

Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM

Never.

The Lord Slide Rule · November 18, 2014, 03:42:39 PM

Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM

Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM
Never.

Elaborate. Unless you're joking.

I ask you to elaborate because I'm fairly certain everybody else in here is just doing what our ancestors have been doing for centuries.

Doctor Doom · November 18, 2014, 03:43:16 PM

Sometime in this or the next century.

rC · November 18, 2014, 03:51:25 PM

Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 03:42:39 PM

Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM
Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM
Never.
Elaborate. Unless you're joking.

Well, never at least until we evolve away from humans.

I'm not pessimistic about our future as a race. I'm sure that there'll be setbacks and all that, but I think that, ultimately, we will continue to develop and evolve until we get to the point that it is impossible for us to go extinct. Obviously, I can't be sure, no one can, but I just don't see us ever fucking up so badly that we go away.

Quote

I ask you to elaborate because I'm fairly certain everybody else in here is just doing what our ancestors have been doing for centuries.

Oh yeah, that kind of talk annoys me. No, this generation isn't worse than the last one, no, today's world isn't more immoral than yesterday's, and no god damn it, the world isn't going to end any time soon.

Dustin · November 18, 2014, 04:00:07 PM

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rC · November 18, 2014, 04:01:37 PM

Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:00:07 PM

Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:51:25 PM
Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 03:42:39 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM
Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM
Never.
Elaborate. Unless you're joking.

Well, never at least until we evolve away from humans.

I'm not pessimistic about our future as a race. I'm sure that there'll be setbacks and all that, but I think that, ultimately, we will continue to develop and evolve until we get to the point that it is impossible for us to go extinct. Obviously, I can't be sure, no one can, but I just don't see us ever fucking up so badly that we go away.

Quote
I ask you to elaborate because I'm fairly certain everybody else in here is just doing what our ancestors have been doing for centuries.

Oh yeah, that kind of talk annoys me. No, this generation isn't worse than the last one, no, today's world isn't more immoral than yesterday's, and no god damn it, the world isn't going to end any time soon.
Don't physics make any kind of system impossible to last forever?

With our current understanding, yeah.

Dustin · November 18, 2014, 04:02:00 PM

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rC · November 18, 2014, 04:03:08 PM

Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:02:00 PM

Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 04:01:37 PM
Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:00:07 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:51:25 PM
Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 03:42:39 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM
Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM
Never.
Elaborate. Unless you're joking.

Well, never at least until we evolve away from humans.

I'm not pessimistic about our future as a race. I'm sure that there'll be setbacks and all that, but I think that, ultimately, we will continue to develop and evolve until we get to the point that it is impossible for us to go extinct. Obviously, I can't be sure, no one can, but I just don't see us ever fucking up so badly that we go away.

Quote
I ask you to elaborate because I'm fairly certain everybody else in here is just doing what our ancestors have been doing for centuries.

Oh yeah, that kind of talk annoys me. No, this generation isn't worse than the last one, no, today's world isn't more immoral than yesterday's, and no god damn it, the world isn't going to end any time soon.
Don't physics make any kind of system impossible to last forever?
With our current understanding, yeah.
that edge tho

I don't mean that our understanding is flawed; I certainly don't understand it enough to say that. I don't think that, either, but I also don't underestimate our abilities given enough time.

The Lord Slide Rule · November 18, 2014, 04:03:30 PM

Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:00:07 PM

Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:51:25 PM
Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 03:42:39 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM
Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM
Never.
Elaborate. Unless you're joking.

Well, never at least until we evolve away from humans.

I'm not pessimistic about our future as a race. I'm sure that there'll be setbacks and all that, but I think that, ultimately, we will continue to develop and evolve until we get to the point that it is impossible for us to go extinct. Obviously, I can't be sure, no one can, but I just don't see us ever fucking up so badly that we go away.

Quote
I ask you to elaborate because I'm fairly certain everybody else in here is just doing what our ancestors have been doing for centuries.

Oh yeah, that kind of talk annoys me. No, this generation isn't worse than the last one, no, today's world isn't more immoral than yesterday's, and no god damn it, the world isn't going to end any time soon.
Don't physics make any kind of system impossible to last forever?

Entropy and an accelerating expansion of the universe yes but the nature of systems like we're talking about here makes it pretty much impossible to predict an end date much beyond, "some point in the future".

I mean what you're talking is on the order of trillions of years m8.

The Lord Slide Rule · November 18, 2014, 04:06:34 PM

Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 04:03:08 PM

Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:02:00 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 04:01:37 PM
Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:00:07 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:51:25 PM
Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 03:42:39 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM
Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM
Never.
Elaborate. Unless you're joking.

Well, never at least until we evolve away from humans.

I'm not pessimistic about our future as a race. I'm sure that there'll be setbacks and all that, but I think that, ultimately, we will continue to develop and evolve until we get to the point that it is impossible for us to go extinct. Obviously, I can't be sure, no one can, but I just don't see us ever fucking up so badly that we go away.

Quote
I ask you to elaborate because I'm fairly certain everybody else in here is just doing what our ancestors have been doing for centuries.

Oh yeah, that kind of talk annoys me. No, this generation isn't worse than the last one, no, today's world isn't more immoral than yesterday's, and no god damn it, the world isn't going to end any time soon.
Don't physics make any kind of system impossible to last forever?
With our current understanding, yeah.
that edge tho
I don't mean that our understanding is flawed; I certainly don't understand it enough to say that. I don't think that, either, but I also don't underestimate our abilities given enough time.

it is tho. Our understanding of reality will only ever be approximate. Gödel's theorems m8.

Dustin · November 18, 2014, 04:06:55 PM

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rC · November 18, 2014, 04:07:21 PM

Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 04:06:34 PM

Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 04:03:08 PM
Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:02:00 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 04:01:37 PM
Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:00:07 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:51:25 PM
Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 03:42:39 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM
Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM
Never.
Elaborate. Unless you're joking.

Well, never at least until we evolve away from humans.

I'm not pessimistic about our future as a race. I'm sure that there'll be setbacks and all that, but I think that, ultimately, we will continue to develop and evolve until we get to the point that it is impossible for us to go extinct. Obviously, I can't be sure, no one can, but I just don't see us ever fucking up so badly that we go away.

Quote
I ask you to elaborate because I'm fairly certain everybody else in here is just doing what our ancestors have been doing for centuries.

Oh yeah, that kind of talk annoys me. No, this generation isn't worse than the last one, no, today's world isn't more immoral than yesterday's, and no god damn it, the world isn't going to end any time soon.
Don't physics make any kind of system impossible to last forever?
With our current understanding, yeah.
that edge tho
I don't mean that our understanding is flawed; I certainly don't understand it enough to say that. I don't think that, either, but I also don't underestimate our abilities given enough time.
it is tho. Our understanding of reality will only ever be approximate. Gödel's theorems m8.

well there ya go. i did say i didn't understand it lol.

The Lord Slide Rule · November 18, 2014, 04:09:58 PM

Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:06:55 PM

Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 04:03:30 PM
Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:00:07 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:51:25 PM
Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 03:42:39 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM
Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM
Never.
Elaborate. Unless you're joking.

Well, never at least until we evolve away from humans.

I'm not pessimistic about our future as a race. I'm sure that there'll be setbacks and all that, but I think that, ultimately, we will continue to develop and evolve until we get to the point that it is impossible for us to go extinct. Obviously, I can't be sure, no one can, but I just don't see us ever fucking up so badly that we go away.

Quote
I ask you to elaborate because I'm fairly certain everybody else in here is just doing what our ancestors have been doing for centuries.

Oh yeah, that kind of talk annoys me. No, this generation isn't worse than the last one, no, today's world isn't more immoral than yesterday's, and no god damn it, the world isn't going to end any time soon.
Don't physics make any kind of system impossible to last forever?
Entropy and an accelerating expansion of the universe yes but the nature of systems like we're talking about here makes it pretty much impossible to predict an end date much beyond, "some point in the future".

I mean what you're talking is on the order of trillions of years m8.
Is that how long it's going to take for the Universe to collapse back in on itself?

Depends which model you use. So far, as far as we can tell, our universe is headed for endless expansion and heat death. Trillions of years is the estimated time for the last of the stars to burn out. I suppose a civilization could take up habitation around black holes for energy, that would last a super long time.

g💚jira · November 18, 2014, 05:18:36 PM

Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 04:09:58 PM

Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:06:55 PM
Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 04:03:30 PM
Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:00:07 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:51:25 PM
Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 03:42:39 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM
Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM
Never.
Elaborate. Unless you're joking.

Well, never at least until we evolve away from humans.

I'm not pessimistic about our future as a race. I'm sure that there'll be setbacks and all that, but I think that, ultimately, we will continue to develop and evolve until we get to the point that it is impossible for us to go extinct. Obviously, I can't be sure, no one can, but I just don't see us ever fucking up so badly that we go away.

Quote
I ask you to elaborate because I'm fairly certain everybody else in here is just doing what our ancestors have been doing for centuries.

Oh yeah, that kind of talk annoys me. No, this generation isn't worse than the last one, no, today's world isn't more immoral than yesterday's, and no god damn it, the world isn't going to end any time soon.
Don't physics make any kind of system impossible to last forever?
Entropy and an accelerating expansion of the universe yes but the nature of systems like we're talking about here makes it pretty much impossible to predict an end date much beyond, "some point in the future".

I mean what you're talking is on the order of trillions of years m8.
Is that how long it's going to take for the Universe to collapse back in on itself?
Depends which model you use. So far, as far as we can tell, our universe is headed for endless expansion and heat death. Trillions of years is the estimated time for the last of the stars to burn out. I suppose a civilization could take up habitation around black holes for energy, that would last a super long time.

Dude you are on fire right now

The Lord Slide Rule · November 18, 2014, 05:29:20 PM

Quote from: GodspeedGojira! on November 18, 2014, 05:18:36 PM

Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 04:09:58 PM
Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:06:55 PM
Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 04:03:30 PM
Quote from: Dustin Patty Cake on November 18, 2014, 04:00:07 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:51:25 PM
Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 03:42:39 PM
Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 03:38:49 PM
Quote from: challengerX on November 18, 2014, 01:02:11 PM
Never.
Elaborate. Unless you're joking.

Well, never at least until we evolve away from humans.

I'm not pessimistic about our future as a race. I'm sure that there'll be setbacks and all that, but I think that, ultimately, we will continue to develop and evolve until we get to the point that it is impossible for us to go extinct. Obviously, I can't be sure, no one can, but I just don't see us ever fucking up so badly that we go away.

Quote
I ask you to elaborate because I'm fairly certain everybody else in here is just doing what our ancestors have been doing for centuries.

Oh yeah, that kind of talk annoys me. No, this generation isn't worse than the last one, no, today's world isn't more immoral than yesterday's, and no god damn it, the world isn't going to end any time soon.
Don't physics make any kind of system impossible to last forever?
Entropy and an accelerating expansion of the universe yes but the nature of systems like we're talking about here makes it pretty much impossible to predict an end date much beyond, "some point in the future".

I mean what you're talking is on the order of trillions of years m8.
Is that how long it's going to take for the Universe to collapse back in on itself?
Depends which model you use. So far, as far as we can tell, our universe is headed for endless expansion and heat death. Trillions of years is the estimated time for the last of the stars to burn out. I suppose a civilization could take up habitation around black holes for energy, that would last a super long time.

Dude you are on fire right now

Lots of time surfing wikipedia, futurist websites and cosmology foundations. Ideas tend to stick.

rC · November 18, 2014, 05:30:37 PM

Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 04:09:58 PM

I suppose a civilization could take up habitation around black holes for energy, that would last a super long time.

how would that work?

The Lord Slide Rule · November 18, 2014, 05:32:35 PM

Quote from: RC5908 on November 18, 2014, 05:30:37 PM

Quote from: SexyPiranha on November 18, 2014, 04:09:58 PM
I suppose a civilization could take up habitation around black holes for energy, that would last a super long time.
how would that work?

Hawking radiation perhaps.

Forgewolf · November 18, 2014, 07:49:00 PM