Latest Trump vs Clinton poll

Dan · August 24, 2016, 07:41:11 PM

Quote from: Icy on August 24, 2016, 07:11:43 PM

I'll do a detailed look once I get home in an hour.

Quote from: Says who? on August 24, 2016, 06:56:26 PM
Those numbers will go down when Assange releases more emails.

Unlikely, TBH

Unlikely that WikiLeaks will release more dirt on Clinton or unlikely that it will affect her poll numbers?

challengerX · August 24, 2016, 08:28:05 PM

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Alternative Facts · August 24, 2016, 09:00:21 PM

Quote from: Says who? on August 24, 2016, 07:41:11 PM

Quote from: Icy on August 24, 2016, 07:11:43 PM
I'll do a detailed look once I get home in an hour.

Quote from: Says who? on August 24, 2016, 06:56:26 PM
Those numbers will go down when Assange releases more emails.

Unlikely, TBH
Unlikely that WikiLeaks will release more dirt on Clinton or unlikely that it will affect her poll numbers?

Little of both.

Assange and WikiLeaks have touted that they've got even more damaging documents on Clinton since before the convention - we're now a month out from then and haven't really had that. Assange did claim on The Kelly File this hour that they are planning a release tonight, so we'll see if that materializes.

On the larger spectrum, WikiLeaks isn't the organization that it once was a couple years ago. Today, it's coming under fire for publishing documents that outs the name of rape victims, gay men in Saudi Arabia, and mental health patients. It's owner continues to remain in exile in the Ecuadorian (?) Embassy, and it's hardly the only well known whistler blower site these days. It's just the one with the most infamy.

In terms of the polling, we're almost one month out from the end of the Democratic and Republic conventions, and roughly one month out from the first debate. Although there is still an ample amount of time before the election, the window of time where people truly remain undecided and more willing to switch to the other candidate is quickly diminishing. And that's bad news for both Trump, and outside entities like WikiLeaks who hope to change the narrative.

Alternative Facts · August 24, 2016, 09:09:12 PM

Quote from: Flee on August 24, 2016, 06:30:43 PM

85% chance of Clinton winning
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

76.5% chance of Clinton winning
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

Clinton heavily favored of winning with over twice as many electoral votes
http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

Clinton 89% chance of winning
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Clinton expected to win with more than twice as many electoral votes
http://www.270towin.com/maps/clinton-trump-electoral-map

Clinton predicted to win by over a 100 more electoral votes
https://www.economy.com/dismal/topics/election-model

I'm gonna do quick recaps of these, cause I'm tired as fuck. Might make a more detailed thread tomorrow or Friday on the state of polling so far.

You've all heard my support of FiveThirtyEight as a polling website, so I'll skip that. The 85% statistic looks to be the "Polls Only" forecast, which doesn't take into account historical and economic data. And although the Poll Plus forecast has Clinton currently at 76.5%, I'd wager her chances are likely closer to 70%.

I've never heard of electionprojection.com, so I can't say I know their track record or where their information is based out of. From the looks of their maps, I see they've given Clinton Georgia, which I don't see her carrying once all the votes are cast. The website is also assuming that Clinton carries every single swing state, and although she is currently leading in polls for every one, it's incredibly close.

New York Times is slightly more optimistic than FiveThirtyEight, but nothing else to really report.

Really all I got for now. Basically, same old that polls are giving Clinton anywhere from a 3-8 point lead over Trump now, especially in the states that matter.

Flee · August 25, 2016, 04:48:43 AM

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Word Wizard · August 25, 2016, 10:35:35 AM

My dad started an argument with me over Hillary's health and after I picked apart everything he sent me, he sent me link of a guy with an election predicting algorithm that predicted the last 6 elections.

I googled around and found one that predicted the last 57 (including all elections with winners not chosen by popular vote) and says that Hillary should win easily. http://www.improbable.com/2016/02/28/the-statistical-un-likelihood-of-donald-trump-analysis-of-a-trump-up-analysis/

Are these legit on the academic level?

Alternative Facts · August 25, 2016, 09:35:09 PM

Quote from: Word Wizard on August 25, 2016, 10:35:35 AM

My dad started an argument with me over Hillary's health and after I picked apart everything he sent me, he sent me link of a guy with an election predicting algorithm that predicted the last 6 elections.

I googled around and found one that predicted the last 57 (including all elections with winners not chosen by popular vote) and says that Hillary should win easily. http://www.improbable.com/2016/02/28/the-statistical-un-likelihood-of-donald-trump-analysis-of-a-trump-up-analysis/

Are these legit on the academic level?

I can't specifically say how legit this particular one is, as this is the first I've heard of them.

Normally, I put as much stake in "predictions" for elections as I do for predictions in the sport industry. But who knows

Word Wizard · August 26, 2016, 06:25:23 PM

Quote from: Icy on August 25, 2016, 09:35:09 PM

I can't specifically say how legit this particular one is, as this is the first I've heard of them.

Normally, I put as much stake in "predictions" for elections as I do for predictions in the sport industry. But who knows

Same. I'm skeptical of fortune tellers aswell, but their accuracy is interesting none the less. This would be their first failure out of the U.S. presidential election history (though I understand it's probably easier to come with an algorithm after the fact).