YouGov/CBS

Hillary Clinton’s deficit among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire has grown to more than 20 points, while her lead over Bernie Sanders among likely caucus voters in Iowa has been reversed, according to the first wave of the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker. Clinton remains ahead in South Carolina, where Joe Biden also makes a strong showing.

The new poll finds Sen. Sanders with 52% support among Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, while former Secretary of State Clinton, long considered the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic nomination, receives 30%. Recent polls have shown Sanders’ lead growing in the Granite State, but this would be the first to show the Vermont Senator over 50%.

Possibly more worrying for the Clinton campaign is her performance in Iowa, where Sanders now leads by 10 points, with 43% to Clinton’s 33%.

Until recently Clinton had retained an edge in Iowa, the other first-in-the-nation voting state along with New Hampshire. A recent CNN/ORC poll found the pair tied among likely Iowa caucus voters.

Vice President Joe Biden, who is rumored to be considering a run for the White House in 2016, receives only 10% support from Democrats in Iowa and 9% in New Hampshire placing him third in both states. Biden’s best performance is in South Carolina, where he has the backing of 22% of Democratic primary voters, matching Sanders’ 23%. Yet Clinton remains firmly in the lead there with 46% support.

While Democrats Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white, South Carolina is the first early state with a significant minority population – over half of likely Democratic primary voters in the Palmetto State are African-American, a group with whom Clinton retains strong support. Indeed Sanders has a narrow lead over Clinton among white South Carolina Democrats (46%-39%), but trails Clinton by 48 points among blacks.

Another demographic with whom Clinton has received disproportionate support is with women, and that mostly remains the case here. Clinton's support is 7 points higher among Iowa women than men. The gender gap is larger in New Hampshire (12 points) and insignificant in South Carolina (4 points). By contrast, Bernie Sanders performs particularly well with Democratic men – though Clinton trails by only 11 points among women in New Hampshire she trails by a mammoth 38 points among men.

The YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is based on surveys of registered voters who had previously voted in primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. The poll was conducted online but included registered voters who were contacted by phone. The sample includes 548 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, 528 in South Carolina, and 646 likely caucus voters in Iowa. See a more detailed description of the methodology used here.

The poll also has stats on the GOP, which is still being led by Trump, followed by Carson.

The rise of Sanders is....moronic, to be quite honest.

but he's better than Shillary

Absolutely not - not if you dislike partisanship in politics.

The election of Sanders, Cruz, potentially Trump - this will only continue to drive a wedge between the two parties and mean even less will get done.

The hero the Dems need, but not the one they deserve.

Sanders, if he were to win the primary, will end up as Dukakis did.

Not in the White House.

I would honestly vote for Cruz over Sanders.


There, I admit it.

Wait, what?

Quote from: Fagcicle on September 14, 2015, 04:03:55 PM

Quote from: Kupo on September 14, 2015, 04:02:57 PM

The hero the Dems need, but not the one they deserve.

Sanders, if he were to win the primary, will end up as Dukakis did.

Not in the White House.

I have to disagree with you there.

Kupo, you're using a poll from July, before the very first debate.

Let's try one from This Month

Carson earns a tie with Clinton at 44%, and he actually leads Bernie Sanders 42/36 in a head to head. Carson is the only declared candidate with a positive favorability rating- 41% of voters nationally see him positively to only 30% who have a negative opinion. He earns a tie with Clinton on the basis of a 43/35 advantage with independents.

The other candidates who come really close to Clinton are Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina, who are each down by just 2. Fiorina trails Clinton 45/43, and is down 39/38 to Sanders. Trump is down just 2 points as well at 46/44, and he leads Sanders 43/42

We tested Jeb Bush against Clinton, Sanders, and Biden to get a sense of their relative strength as general election candidates. Clinton (a 4 point lead over Bush at 46/42) and Biden (a 3 point lead over Bush at 44/41) do quite similarly. Sanders does a little bit worse, trailing Bush by a point at 41/40.

Icy, who would be your preferred GOP nomination?

Kasich isn't terrible, but outside of the one debate, he barely receives any name recognition.

Quote from: Fagcicle on September 14, 2015, 04:20:17 PM

Kasich isn't terrible, but outside of the one debate, he barely receives any name recognition.

My man.

It's a shame; you'd think a man with experience like his (and being the governor of the swing state) he'd be fairly well-known.

Trump and Carson (And to a degree, Fiorina), have really shined in the early months of this election cycle - it shows that the GOP base and beyond are annoyed with the establishment, and want someone new.

Quote from: Fagcicle on September 14, 2015, 04:23:25 PM

Trump and Carson (And to a degree, Fiorina), have really shined in the early months of this election cycle - it shows that the GOP base and beyond are annoyed with the establishment, and want someone new.

I'm not surprised, it's exactly the same in the UK with the election of Corbyn for Labour.

Although, to be honest, I doubt Trump will last. Or Carson, for that matter; he doesn't seem to have much content.

We'll know more within a month or two - the more weaker candidates will drop out, so it will really focus on the top candidates and their views.

Quote from: Fagcicle on September 14, 2015, 05:30:59 PM

Quote from: Nick McIntyre on September 14, 2015, 05:23:32 PM

>preferring Hillary

>ever

>preferring someone unelectable

Okay.

Someone unelectable whose popularity has soared, compared to someone who is sinking like a rock.

His popularity is congregated around certain sects of the Democratic base, namely University students. Why wouldn't they support someone who says "Student Debt is bad!" without any substantial plan to actually address it?

He is Michael Dukakis 2.0. He will not win a general election against any GOP candidate because America is not going to elect someone is declared as a socialist.

Good. Sanders is the only reasonable vote, tbh

Absolutely not.

Kasich is better than this moron.

Quote from: Fagcicle on September 14, 2015, 06:30:32 PM

Quote from: Carsonogen on September 14, 2015, 06:28:02 PM

Good. Sanders is the only reasonable vote, tbh

Absolutely not.

Kasich is better than this moron.

LOL

Yeah, let's elect someone with even more corporate dicks in his mouth than Bush.

Great idea.

Yeah, let's elect someone with no trace of foreign policy on his "issues page", instead reverting to old promises that no President will ever accomplish.

Sanders can say whatever shit he wants about "Wall Street is bad! Colleges are  bad! Everything is bad!", but in the end, the legislature is the one who will address all that. Sanders is too polarizing to ever get anything done.