ISIS has a civil war between its half in Iraq and its half in Syria.

Not Comms Officer · March 09, 2015, 09:13:44 PM

Iraq has more of the civilian population to recruit from, and Syria has more of the active fighters deployed, and makes for a better holdout given its instability..

This is hypothetical by the way. Not happening right now.

DAS B00T x2 · March 09, 2015, 09:26:29 PM

Is this a hypothetical?
I mean, I knew about one ISIL faction working with Al Nursa and some other Syrian rebel group to fight Hezbollah... and there's numerous rebel factions like the Arny of Mujahedeen which was formed to fight ISIL presence and the Islamic Front which shifted combat focus to ISIS for a bit if I'm not mistaken...

But I haven't heard anything about an inter Islamic State civil war.

Not Comms Officer · March 09, 2015, 09:31:13 PM

Quote from: DASIUS B00TICUS SNAKESAR on March 09, 2015, 09:26:29 PM

Is this a hypothetical?
I mean, I knew about one ISIL faction working with Al Nursa and some other Syrian rebel group to fight Hezbollah... and there's numerous rebel factions like the Arny of Mujahedeen which was formed to fight ISIL presence and the Islamic Front which shifted combat focus to ISIS for a bit if I'm not mistaken...

But I haven't heard anything about an inter Islamic State civil war.

Yeah, this is hypothetical. IS does have big divisions within its different ethnic communities. Like how there is a hierarchy of Iraqis at top, then Syrians, then other Middle Eastern Arabs, then North Africans, then everyone else. Big divisions over spoils of war between those communities. But saying that IS hasn't launched a successful offensive since October last year, there aren't many spoils to fight over now.

The US has kind of obliterated its vehicle fleet which is what gave it such an overwhelming edge over other Syrian rebels and the Iraqi Army.

Forgewolf · March 09, 2015, 09:33:47 PM

And then we'll slip through the cracks > : )

Not Comms Officer · March 09, 2015, 09:38:17 PM

Quote from: Forgewolf on March 09, 2015, 09:33:47 PM

And then we'll slip through the cracks > : )

Who is this "we" you speak of?

Release · March 09, 2015, 09:40:38 PM

the Iraq side has to worry about the Iraqi army and more airstrikes

DAS B00T x2 · March 09, 2015, 09:41:47 PM

Quote from: GethKhilafah on March 09, 2015, 09:31:13 PM

Quote from: DASIUS B00TICUS SNAKESAR on March 09, 2015, 09:26:29 PM
Is this a hypothetical?
I mean, I knew about one ISIL faction working with Al Nursa and some other Syrian rebel group to fight Hezbollah... and there's numerous rebel factions like the Arny of Mujahedeen which was formed to fight ISIL presence and the Islamic Front which shifted combat focus to ISIS for a bit if I'm not mistaken...

But I haven't heard anything about an inter Islamic State civil war.
Yeah, this is hypothetical. IS does have big divisions within its different ethnic communities. Like how there is a hierarchy of Iraqis at top, then Syrians, then other Middle Eastern Arabs, then North Africans, then everyone else. Big divisions over spoils of war between those communities. But saying that IS hasn't launched a successful offensive since October last year, there aren't many spoils to fight over now.

The US has kind of obliterated its vehicle fleet which is what gave it such an overwhelming edge over other Syrian rebels and the Iraqi Army.

Well, I'd reckon then that barring western intervention, the Iraqi branch could dig in better and secure themselves against Iraqi army, Kurdish fighters, and Syrian IS attacks while the Syrian side of things has to deal with more effective armies.

Not Comms Officer · March 09, 2015, 09:48:45 PM

Quote from: DASIUS B00TICUS SNAKESAR on March 09, 2015, 09:41:47 PM

Quote from: GethKhilafah on March 09, 2015, 09:31:13 PM
Quote from: DASIUS B00TICUS SNAKESAR on March 09, 2015, 09:26:29 PM
Is this a hypothetical?
I mean, I knew about one ISIL faction working with Al Nursa and some other Syrian rebel group to fight Hezbollah... and there's numerous rebel factions like the Arny of Mujahedeen which was formed to fight ISIL presence and the Islamic Front which shifted combat focus to ISIS for a bit if I'm not mistaken...

But I haven't heard anything about an inter Islamic State civil war.
Yeah, this is hypothetical. IS does have big divisions within its different ethnic communities. Like how there is a hierarchy of Iraqis at top, then Syrians, then other Middle Eastern Arabs, then North Africans, then everyone else. Big divisions over spoils of war between those communities. But saying that IS hasn't launched a successful offensive since October last year, there aren't many spoils to fight over now.

The US has kind of obliterated its vehicle fleet which is what gave it such an overwhelming edge over other Syrian rebels and the Iraqi Army.
Well, I'd reckon then that barring western intervention, the Iraqi branch could dig in better and secure themselves against Iraqi army, Kurdish fighters, and Syrian IS attacks while the Syrian side of things has to deal with more effective armies.

If we're talking about June-August, then that'd be true. But now the situation has flipped itself upside down. SAA launched a major offensive near Dara'a which is bogged down, and then they launched another offensive in the north of Aleppo, which has failed miserably (to the point where they have nearly been pushed back to where they were in October last year). So SAA's too stretched out to launch offensives against IS. The Rebels have a very small amount of frontline with IS, and over there, they're in a stalemate. And then the Kurds don't have the manpower ambition to deal with all of IS in Syria, so they'll just stop once they're comfortable with what they have. IS has actually been taking huge losses against the Iraqi Army recently. They've had to cede large parts of Anbar Governorate to the ISF, and the Iraqi Army has recently launched an offensive to retake Tikrit from IS. Not to mention that the Peshmerga has Mosul under siege from 3 sides.

Korra · March 09, 2015, 10:48:26 PM

Quote from: GethKhilafah on March 09, 2015, 09:38:17 PM

Quote from: Forgewolf on March 09, 2015, 09:33:47 PM
And then we'll slip through the cracks > : )
Who is this "we" you speak of?

Freedom.

Risay117 · March 10, 2015, 12:13:10 AM

Just so you know the SAA has taken ground against ISIS, basically as Daesh is retreating the YPG and SAA have been running to different cities to lay claim to them. And mainly crushing small Daesh resistance. ISIS is more or less dead now.

In Iraq they will fall, in Syria well they will be destroyed by both rebels and SAA.
Why?
Well Deir-e-Azor is the greatest example of the SAA holding of and beating the Daesh forces, while in the east in places like Aleppo, the rebel factions have grown stronger and more let me say effective. Nusra has been leading charges and making progress though in some places it has been the other way around. While IF has become quite strong and has not really shown it's true strength. Ahrar Al Sham i believe is one of the groups that has one of the most effective groups.

As far as i know Daesh is dead especially with the hit squads hunting their leadership and the dismantling of their whole doctrine. The real fight i see right now is between the IF and it's allies and SAA and it's allies. YPG and the Kurds for now are not facing the heat but if things cool down and SAA finishes the encirclement of Aleppo which has had many setbacks recently, they could face some heat.

Not Comms Officer · March 10, 2015, 12:19:49 AM

Quote from: Risay117 on March 10, 2015, 12:13:10 AM

Just so you know the SAA has taken ground against ISIS, basically as Daesh is retreating the YPG and SAA have been running to different cities to lay claim to them. And mainly crushing small Daesh resistance. ISIS is more or less dead now.

In Iraq they will fall, in Syria well they will be destroyed by both rebels and SAA.
Why?
Well Deir-e-Azor is the greatest example of the SAA holding of and beating the Daesh forces, while in the east in places like Aleppo, the rebel factions have grown stronger and more let me say effective. Nusra has been leading charges and making progress though in some places it has been the other way around. While IF has become quite strong and has not really shown it's true strength. Ahrar Al Sham i believe is one of the groups that has one of the most effective groups.

As far as i know Daesh is dead especially with the hit squads hunting their leadership and the dismantling of their whole doctrine. The real fight i see right now is between the IF and it's allies and SAA and it's allies. YPG and the Kurds for now are not facing the heat but if things cool down and SAA finishes the encirclement of Aleppo which has had many setbacks recently, they could face some heat.

Eh, if this were last month, I'd say that the siege of Aleppo would have been inevitable, but now it's really not looking so hot for them. Unless the Iranians intervene (again), deSyracuse's prediction of Aleppo being under siege by June is going to be smashed back into Sheikh Najjar.

Though I do agree that IS is going nowhere. Their organization is starting to tear itself to shreds whether it's from internal divisions, or massive amounts of infiltrators. I don't think they've really gained ground anywhere since November.

Ahrar al-Sham does have some rumors circulating around it that they're next in the USA's sights after IS and JaN, so there's some bad news. Do you know if any of the rumors of JaN leaving al-Qaeda have any amount of truth as well? I've seen nothing but extremely conflicting reports.

Risay117 · March 10, 2015, 12:34:22 AM

Quote from: GethKhilafah on March 10, 2015, 12:19:49 AM

Quote from: Risay117 on March 10, 2015, 12:13:10 AM
Just so you know the SAA has taken ground against ISIS, basically as Daesh is retreating the YPG and SAA have been running to different cities to lay claim to them. And mainly crushing small Daesh resistance. ISIS is more or less dead now.

In Iraq they will fall, in Syria well they will be destroyed by both rebels and SAA.
Why?
Well Deir-e-Azor is the greatest example of the SAA holding of and beating the Daesh forces, while in the east in places like Aleppo, the rebel factions have grown stronger and more let me say effective. Nusra has been leading charges and making progress though in some places it has been the other way around. While IF has become quite strong and has not really shown it's true strength. Ahrar Al Sham i believe is one of the groups that has one of the most effective groups.

As far as i know Daesh is dead especially with the hit squads hunting their leadership and the dismantling of their whole doctrine. The real fight i see right now is between the IF and it's allies and SAA and it's allies. YPG and the Kurds for now are not facing the heat but if things cool down and SAA finishes the encirclement of Aleppo which has had many setbacks recently, they could face some heat.
Eh, if this were last month, I'd say that the siege of Aleppo would have been inevitable, but now it's really not looking so hot for them. Unless the Iranians intervene (again), deSyracuse's prediction of Aleppo being under siege by June is going to be smashed back into Sheikh Najjar.

Though I do agree that IS is going nowhere. Their organization is starting to tear itself to shreds whether it's from internal divisions, or massive amounts of infiltrators. I don't think they've really gained ground anywhere since November.

Ahrar al-Sham does have some rumors circulating around it that they're next in the USA's sights after IS and JaN, so there's some bad news. Do you know if any of the rumors of JaN leaving al-Qaeda have any amount of truth as well? I've seen nothing but extremely conflicting reports.

Well first point is yeah, the Aleppo encirclement was a failure, but there is still expectations something may happen in the future. I feel like if the East and Deir-e-Azor open up and the pressure is released from there the Golden Brigade may be shifted to Aleppo. There has been a move if i remember correctly of troops to the Aleppo area as well as a surge of Hezbollah soldiers.

For me the biggest question is has there been an increase or surge of troops in and around Aleppo and if so is there a new offensive on the horizon. Also could the Rebels make the same mistake and push too far too fast thus not reinforcing their positions and getting caught off guard if a new offensive begins. Another issue is that the recent failure can also be attributed to the absence of air support, so could the next time around, when the counter-counter-offensive begins could the air power change the game and solidify results.

Right now fighting for Baskouy village:

YouTube

Latest Map:
Link

Last i heard was that all reports of Nusra leaving Al-Qaeda has been false. That is the official statement so far.

Anyway 12 at night here will talk tomorrow.

Not Comms Officer · March 10, 2015, 12:42:16 AM

Quote from: Risay117 on March 10, 2015, 12:34:22 AM

Quote from: GethKhilafah on March 10, 2015, 12:19:49 AM
Quote from: Risay117 on March 10, 2015, 12:13:10 AM
Just so you know the SAA has taken ground against ISIS, basically as Daesh is retreating the YPG and SAA have been running to different cities to lay claim to them. And mainly crushing small Daesh resistance. ISIS is more or less dead now.

In Iraq they will fall, in Syria well they will be destroyed by both rebels and SAA.
Why?
Well Deir-e-Azor is the greatest example of the SAA holding of and beating the Daesh forces, while in the east in places like Aleppo, the rebel factions have grown stronger and more let me say effective. Nusra has been leading charges and making progress though in some places it has been the other way around. While IF has become quite strong and has not really shown it's true strength. Ahrar Al Sham i believe is one of the groups that has one of the most effective groups.

As far as i know Daesh is dead especially with the hit squads hunting their leadership and the dismantling of their whole doctrine. The real fight i see right now is between the IF and it's allies and SAA and it's allies. YPG and the Kurds for now are not facing the heat but if things cool down and SAA finishes the encirclement of Aleppo which has had many setbacks recently, they could face some heat.
Eh, if this were last month, I'd say that the siege of Aleppo would have been inevitable, but now it's really not looking so hot for them. Unless the Iranians intervene (again), deSyracuse's prediction of Aleppo being under siege by June is going to be smashed back into Sheikh Najjar.

Though I do agree that IS is going nowhere. Their organization is starting to tear itself to shreds whether it's from internal divisions, or massive amounts of infiltrators. I don't think they've really gained ground anywhere since November.

Ahrar al-Sham does have some rumors circulating around it that they're next in the USA's sights after IS and JaN, so there's some bad news. Do you know if any of the rumors of JaN leaving al-Qaeda have any amount of truth as well? I've seen nothing but extremely conflicting reports.

Well first point is yeah, the Aleppo encirclement was a failure, but there is still expectations something may happen in the future. I feel like if the East and Deir-e-Azor open up and the pressure is released from there the Golden Brigade may be shifted to Aleppo. There has been a move if i remember correctly of troops to the Aleppo area as well as a surge of Hezbollah soldiers.

For me the biggest question is has there been an increase or surge of troops in and around Aleppo and if so is there a new offensive on the horizon. Also could the Rebels make the same mistake and push too far too fast thus not reinforcing their positions and getting caught off guard if a new offensive begins. Another issue is that the recent failure can also be attributed to the absence of air support, so could the next time around, when the counter-counter-offensive begins could the air power change the game and solidify results.

Right now fighting for Baskouy village:
YouTube

Latest Map:
Link

Last i heard was that all reports of Nusra leaving Al-Qaeda has been false. That is the official statement so far.

Anyway 12 at night here will talk tomorrow.

Oh, of course the video broke out into fucking nasheeds less than halfway through...

It really does seem like the SAA's last hope for encircling Aleppo by June 2015 is by letting the rebels overextend themselves, and then attack them while they're weak. But the SAA is doing the stupid thing and trying to fight for every inch of ground, which is just bleeding themselves out.

What I find funny about that map is that it was made by an IS-supporter. Should that guy even be trusted on account of what his obvious slant is. I'm not saying we should all be using Peto Lucem's maps, but why the fuck do all of the Aleppo map have to be so goddamn biased. Fuck, I think that a pro-IS map would be the most reliable since the only fighting in the Aleppo front are the Rebels and the Government.

Poll

Who will win this final duel?

ISIS has a civil war between its half in Iraq and its half in Syria.