Is Iran a threat?

 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
Yes, they are. But before I go into that, I just want to address something important. Is Iran democratic? It's something of a talking point within both the anti-neocon Left and the isolationist Right that Iran is actually a democratic country, which has never been the aggressor against another State (despite the fact they are responsible for numerous insurgencies in the region) and is constantly subjected to humiliating or otherwise undesirable Western policies.

So allow me to just address the point of Iran's democratic virtues: the unelected Guardian Council vets all parliamentary candidates before allowing them to stand, and there has been a startling decrease in the number of moderate reformists in the past decade or so. 2,500 hundred reformists in 2004 to 1,700 in 2008 and again the Guardian Council stalled progress by refusing many moderates the chance to stand in the 2009 Presidential elections. But, of course, does any of that really matter even when the Supreme Leader gets his way against the successful, vetted candidates regardless? Iran is no true democracy.

Now, to move on to whether Iran is a threat in any significant capacity. The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate argued that Iran had shifted gear with regards to its nuclear weapons programme back in 2003, much the same way Libya had done, confirming MI6's expectations of a shift in attitude in the region towards nuclear weapons development. However, it didn't last. The 2011 NIE reached a different conclusion, finding that the Iranian approach to nuclear weapons had indeed changed since the 2007 report, and that Iran was pursuing "early-stage R&D work on aspects of the manufacturing process for a nuclear weapon."

The IAEA also stated such concerns back in 2011, which includes evidence of a potential military application, and stated that Iran was not cooperating with the UN watchdog. . . Of course, not for the first time. There was also a report that same year, by the UNSC, which confirmed that Iran had avoided international sanctions by using a network of smugglers to acquire the materials needed for ICBMs and nuclear weaponry.

German spies have also played a hand in refuting the 2007 NIE report and confirming that yes Iran does have ambitions for a nuclear weapon. The French, similarly, say they are certain this is what the Iranians desire and the British are also convinced.

And, perhaps most damingly:

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The report, by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said that Iran’s ambition to produce a nuclear weapon is β€œbeyond reasonable doubt” and that it has sufficient low-enriched uranium from its Natanz enrichment facility to produce one or two bombs.

It's important to note Iran does not currently have a nuclear weapons system, and it's probably the case that they aren't particularly close either. However, it's fairly clear at this point that nuclear armaments are a significant goal of the Iranian establishment and we ought to direct our intelligence services to disrupting them any way we can.
Last Edit: January 05, 2016, 12:03:50 PM by UltimateKidzBopFan08


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Don't we have the capability to check anything suspicious along with daily checks with the Iran Deal?


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
Don't we have the capability to check anything suspicious along with daily checks with the Iran Deal?
Which assumes Iran will comply with the terms. Going by their behaviour prior to the deal--and during the deal--I highly doubt it.


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Don't we have the capability to check anything suspicious along with daily checks with the Iran Deal?
Which assumes Iran will comply with the terms. Going by their behaviour prior to the deal--and during the deal--I highly doubt it.
So we're giving them a shit ton of sanctioned money for a deal they're just inevitably going to break?


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
And who are America and Israel to say whether or not Iran can have nuclear weapons?
Don't give a fuck if they say it, I just happen to agree with them if they do.

Iran is essentially a theocracy; the Ayatollahs have been religious lunatics and Iran getting the bomb would spark a regional arms race as well as upgrade the capabilities of the insurgent groups they already support substantially.

I'd have thought you'd be opposed to them getting nukes. The Iranian government is dangerous, and if they ever did get the bomb the innocent Iranians themselves would be in significant danger due to the fact they live under a capricious government.
Last Edit: January 05, 2016, 01:18:45 PM by UltimateKidzBopFan08


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No, Iran isn't a democracy. It's under a dictatorship
theocratic oligarchy*


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
Do you think they care that the Pakis have nukes? That the Saudis fund terrorists that have taken thousands of American lives?
No, but that doesn't translate into me not caring, does it?

The fact that governments are hypocritical doesn't mean they shouldn't pursue good policies because they pursue different policies elsewhere.

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Why are the Jews allowed to invade Palestinian land and have nukes?
They didn't invade; they had been emigrating there from as early as 1880 and the anti-Semites, Islamists and Arab nationalists in the region didn't like it. If the AHC hadn't rejected the first partition, the Palestinians wouldn't be in anywhere near as bad a position as they are now, and if Hamas and similar Islamist elements didn't exist the Palestinians would actually be able to negotiate properly with Israel.

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and everybody calling Iran "evil".
I'm not calling Iran evil. I'm saying the Iranian government is not the kind of government you want having a nuclear weapon, and unlike Pakistan or Russia, we actually have the opportunity to stop their nuclear capabilities before they even have a weapon.


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
Spoken like a fucking politician.
Not really; it'd be like saying we can't do anything about ISIS because we're not really doing anything about Boko Haram.

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How about because they purposefully don't stop these countries and purposefully go after Iran?
We can't stop countries that already have a weapon, nor can we meaningfully intervene in terms of Pakistan's nuclear weapons without appearing to favour India (which, personally, I do) and ramping up tensions.

We should do something about Pakistan and their support for the Taliban, of course, but in terms of their nuclear capabilities there is very little we can do. It's also worth noting that Pakistan is an ally of Iran; anything we do to hinder Iranian nuclear ambitions also weakens Pakistan's geopolitical position.


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What country? A country the British gave them after colonizing the land themselves?
No, the country that they took when Palestinians and numerous Arab armies attacked them the day the British left. Israel now holds over sixty percent of what would've originally been Palestinian land had the AHC accepted the 1947 partition plan, never mind the fact that they would currently own eighty percent of the entire region had the Islamist AHC not rejected the original 1936 partition plan.

The Palestinians got fucked over by their government, got fucked over by the Egyptians and now are getting fucked over by Hamas.

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But Pakistan is?
The kind of government you want having nukes?

No, of course not. But they already have them.

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Why shouldn't Iran have nukes? How is Iran in any way worse than Pakistan?
It isn't, but fewer bad governments with nukes is better than more bad governments with nukes. The fact that we haven't done and aren't doing anything about the Pakistani government isn't any kind of excuse to do nothing about the Iranian government.

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Does the Taliban have nukes because Pakistan has them? Nope.
The relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan is not the same as between Iran and, say, Hezbollah.

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This is all Jewish lobbying because they're afraid Iran will give Hezbollah nuclear missiles to strike Israel with.
Israeli* lobbying. If Jews in general were so worried about Iran they wouldn't vote Democrat.

And, besides, it's not an unreasonable fear at all. Any expansion in Hezbollah's capacity to commit terrorist attacks is bad.

EDIT: Also worth noting, the U.S. already conducts drone strikes in Pakistan to kill militants. So it's not like we're doing absolutely nothing.
Last Edit: January 05, 2016, 02:14:34 PM by UltimateKidzBopFan08


 
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Last Edit: January 05, 2016, 03:00:06 PM by challengerX


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
Which means nothing needs to be done to Iran other than change the regime.
Well. . . Yeah, we agree. I said in the OP I support efforts by the intelligence services; I'm not calling for a war with Iran or even targeted air strikes. That would be dumb.

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And America obviously doesn't care about raising tensions in other parts of the world, so it's really not an issue.
Not for the U.S. government; for me it is.  But there are a couple of reasons why relations are so bad with Iran relative to the Pakistanis. For instance, Iran held Americans hostage following the Revolution which is what originally led to diplomatic relations being cut off. The Pakistani establishment has kind of acted like an ally to the U.S., at least on the face of it; most of the support they give to the Taliban is in terms of intelligence, as opposed to Hezbollah which is pretty much a wing of the Iranian government. The fact that Pakistan already has nukes is also a reason we have maintained comparatively close relations, since it (unfortunately) gives them a lot more influence on the world stage. The Iranian government is openly anti-US. And, the largest oil-producing State in the Middle East is the Sunni Saudi Arabia, whereas Iran is diametrically opposed to them.

I'm not saying this justifies our current stance with regards to Pakistan, but it does help explain why things have evolved the way they have.

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Sanctions?
I wouldn't be opposed to looking into it; if it could work, then I don't see why not. Although I've never heard of a State giving up its nuclear arsenal due to sanctions.

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LOL Come on man. This is such a stretch.
Not really. Two undesirable nuclear States aligning their interests is much more powerful than one nuclear State and one non-nuclear State. Especially when Iran is essentially trying to establish a hegemony in the Middle East.

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I'm simply saying who are the Jews to say whether or not another country can or can't have nuclear weapons?
The fact that they are Jews doesn't make them right or wrong; the fact that they are right that it would be bad if Iran got the bomb makes them right. Do they have a vested interest in Iran getting or not getting the bomb? Sure, but that doesn't automatically disqualify their position.

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Why weren't they stopped years ago? Why don't they have sanctions like Iran had?
Not a clue; they got the bomb back in '98. I have no idea what Western-Pakistani relations were like back then.

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hasn't caused America any real harm
You mean besides the Beirut bombing and giving munitions to insurgencies in Iraq?

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Yet the Taliban don't have nuclear weapons.
Because the Taliban is not basically a part of the Iranian government; Hezbollah was founded with funding by Iran specifically to attack Israel, do you really think the Iranians wouldn't give them access to such weapons, even if it's just dirty bombs? I'm not willing to take that chance.