AMA Democrat's Post-Convention Polling Bounce...

Alternative Facts · August 04, 2016, 12:18:40 PM

As if you needed more assurance that polling in the next couple weeks is going to be more unreliable than before, look no further than FiveThirtyEight

In the week since the DNC finished their convention, Clinton has seen a sizable bump in her national standing.

In their "Now Cast" (if the election was held today), Clinton rose from a 48% chance of victory on July 29th to a 91.2% chance today.
In their "Polls Only" (Only counting polls), Clinton rose from a 49.9% chance on July 30th to a 77.7% tooday
In their "Polls-Plus" (Factors polls, historical precedent, and economic conditions), Clinton rose 60.4% on July 30th to a 72% chance today

These numbers are important as they resemble polling data from early-July, before the FBI announced their findings regarding her emails.

It's also important to note that, with the first debate scheduled for over a month from now, these polls are likely gong to fluctuate rapidly and should hardly be taken as indicative of a November win. Polls should begin to level off in around 3 weeks (late August), at which time it will be easier to read.

So, yeah. AMA related to polls/the election/etc.

More Than Mortal · August 04, 2016, 12:59:03 PM

What are Trump's chances of actually winning, as far as you can currently tell?

Braixen · August 04, 2016, 01:21:09 PM

Quote from: Meta Cognition on August 04, 2016, 12:59:03 PM

What are Trump's chances of actually winning, as far as you can currently tell?

100%

Alternative Facts · August 04, 2016, 01:24:37 PM

Quote from: Meta Cognition on August 04, 2016, 12:59:03 PM

What are Trump's chances of actually winning, as far as you can currently tell?

I'm basing all of my numbers on This Map

One of the more touted chances are to solidify support in the traditional Republican states (Midwest, deep South, Utah/Arizona/Montana/Idaho), along with picking up Ohio/Pennsylvania/Florida. Doing so puts him at 258, and would get him the win by picking up North Carolina (Which voted Republican in 2012).

Problem with that strategy is that Pennsylvania hasn't gone red in a presidential race sine 1988, since urban voters usually crush the rural, more red counties.

Another option (and one that is more likely) is for Trump to pick up Michigan. It's currently controlled by Republicans and has a lot in common with Pence's Indiana. Pairing that with victories in Florida/Ohio/North Carolina/Iowa (All of which are highly unpredictable, but some do have similarities to Indiana) would put Trump over the top as well.

Problem with that is that Michigan does have a moderate Muslim population, who will no doubt vote Clinton.

Overall, I would give Trump ~ 30% chance of winning. He has opportunities, but they're incredibly unreliable in the idea that they haven't gone red in a long time. Losing Michigan or Pennsylvania will ultimately kill his chances, and Clinton's popularity with minority voters could hurt him in some traditional GOP safe havens (Arizona and the Carolina's)

challengerX · August 04, 2016, 02:16:15 PM

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Flee · August 04, 2016, 02:18:35 PM

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challengerX · August 04, 2016, 02:21:56 PM

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Alternative Facts · August 04, 2016, 02:23:48 PM

Quote from: Flee on August 04, 2016, 02:18:35 PM

How do you think the debates are going to go?

It's going to be a very odd dichotomy.

Trump has zero public experience, has yet to really elaborate on details for his proposals, and speaks like he's talking to middle schoolers. Clinton has been in some for of public office for thirty years and speaks like a politician.

You can't get any more different. Clinton really just needs to maintain her composure.

Flee · August 04, 2016, 02:48:32 PM

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DAS B00T x2 · August 04, 2016, 03:41:39 PM

You think Trump has a chance in PA? I mean, our governor elections can be won with just a handful of counties surrounding Philly. I don't think his supporters stand a chance against the cities.

More Than Mortal · August 04, 2016, 03:43:01 PM

Quote from: Flee on August 04, 2016, 02:48:32 PM

He's also really not a very good public speaker, so there's that too.

This is what people seem to like about him, though. People have associated "scripted"-ness with politicians to the point where a guy can get up on stage and say whatever the fuck he wants and people will go "at least he's not scripted like the rest of 'em".

Alternative Facts · August 04, 2016, 03:51:17 PM

Quote from: DAS B00T x2 on August 04, 2016, 03:41:39 PM

You think Trump has a chance in PA? I mean, our governed elections can be won with just a handful of counties surrounding Philly. I don't think his supporters stand a chance against the cities.

Do I personally think that? No.

But he's either going to go for Pennsylvania, or he's going for Michigan. If he doesn't win at least one of those, he'd have to pick up every other swing state, or flip Democratic strongholds, to win.

It's kinda crucial.

Flee · August 04, 2016, 04:35:55 PM

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gats · August 04, 2016, 04:40:39 PM

I heard more about that Khan soldier than I did Hillary post convention, either an accident by Trump or political marvel, I personally think the former.

Alternative Facts · August 04, 2016, 04:41:42 PM

Quote from: gats on August 04, 2016, 04:40:39 PM

I heard more about that Khan soldier than I did Hillary post convention, either an accident by Trump or political marvel, I personally think the former.

How so?

gats · August 04, 2016, 04:45:11 PM

Quote from: Icy on August 04, 2016, 04:41:42 PM

Quote from: gats on August 04, 2016, 04:40:39 PM
I heard more about that Khan soldier than I did Hillary post convention, either an accident by Trump or political marvel, I personally think the former.

How so?

Whether it was purpose or not Trump did well in taking the spotlight away from Clinton and forcing the media to focus on the dead soldier. Mongol tactics: turning the Khan family story into the big takeaway from the DNC convention; Clinton's historic moment becomes secondary.

Alternative Facts · August 04, 2016, 05:01:03 PM

Quote from: gats on August 04, 2016, 04:45:11 PM

Quote from: Icy on August 04, 2016, 04:41:42 PM
Quote from: gats on August 04, 2016, 04:40:39 PM
I heard more about that Khan soldier than I did Hillary post convention, either an accident by Trump or political marvel, I personally think the former.

How so?
Whether it was purpose or not Trump did well in taking the spotlight away from Clinton and forcing the media to focus on the dead soldier. Mongol tactics: turning the Khan family story into the big takeaway from the DNC convention; Clinton's historic moment becomes secondary.

I wouldn't classify it as that, nor would I classify that it's something Trump did on his own volition.

He's playing right into the DNC's hands.