You should add Mitt Romney to the poll.

Since he's got a pretty strong chance to be the nominee.

Graham is out

Quote from: Fagcicle on December 22, 2015, 08:31:25 AM

Rubio is the favourite among bookies to win the GOP nomination, and as we all know bookies are more accurate than pollsters. Clinton, however, is expected to get the Dem nomination, and the bookies are expecting a Dem victory 2016.

Thoughts?

Why ya asking me?

Anyways, to answer your question, Rubio does have the charisma, fundraising skills, and potential Hispanic support that would seem to clinch him the nomination in any other year. However with this primary, Trump's theatrics have overshadowed him, and Cruz's rise is definitely startling. As crazy as Cruz can be, he and Rubio have a large group of overlapping voters. I'm also not counting out Bush quite yet, as there is potential still for a comeback - particularly if he does well in the South. So, I'm kind of avoiding making a stance on the GOP nomination until at least after South Carolina.

Democratically, Clinton has the nomination secured unless all of the union members that are backing her just don't show up. Sanders support stems from the youth voters who similarly propelled Obama to the White House, but he hasn't made strides in other necessary communities, and that's gonna hurt - especially after we get past Iowa and New Hampshire, into states where he has no infrastructure set up.

For the general, the GOP needs to just suck it up and coalesce behind one candidate, even if it is Trump. However, the deep divides that have formed over the past decade in the party really does threaten their chances to win back the White House. I'll have to wait and see how it goes later in the primary, but I'd say a 60-40 chance that the Democrats win a third round.