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Messages - More Than Mortal
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391
« on: December 30, 2016, 03:25:38 AM »
Seriously, have none of yous seen House of Cards?
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« on: December 29, 2016, 12:33:52 PM »
Her immigration policies were handled poorly, but she's still popular due to her other works.
Merkel is a figure of moderate, centrist stability. Even though AfD are no Nazis, right-wing populism doesn't evoke positive emotions in most Germans.
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« on: December 29, 2016, 06:01:41 AM »
The Spectator: After the tumult of 2016, Europe could do with a year of calm. It won’t get one. Elections are to be held in four of the six founder members of the European project, and populist Eurosceptic forces are on the march in each one. There will be at least one regime change: François Hollande has accepted that he is too unpopular to run again as French president, and it will be a surprise if he is the only European leader to go. Others might cling on but find their grip on power weakened by populist success.
The spectre of the financial crash still haunts European politics. Money was printed and banks were saved, but the recovery was marked by a great stagnation in living standards, which has led to alienation, dismay and anger. Donald Trump would not have been able to win the Republican nomination, let alone the presidency, without that rage — and the conditions that created Trump’s victory are, if anything, even stronger in Europe.
European voters who looked to the state for protection after the crash soon discovered the helplessness of governments which had ceded control over vast swathes of economic policy to the EU. The second great shock, the wave of global immigration, is also a thornier subject in the EU because nearly all of its members surrendered control over their borders when they signed the Schengen agreement. Those unhappy at this situation often have only new, populist parties to turn to. So most European elections come down to a battle between insurgents and defenders of the existing order.
Nowhere is this more the case than the Netherlands. The Dutch will vote on 15 March and the election will essentially be Geert Wilders’s Freedom party versus the rest. Wilders, who was convicted of inciting discrimination earlier this month, is expected to top the ballot. His party, which defined itself by antipathy to ‘Islamification’ and a desire to quit the EU, regularly leads in the polls, often by double-digit margins. Normally, the party that comes top on election day in Holland provides the prime minister. But if Wilders triumphs, few other parties would support him and he won’t come to power. For a populist, to come top and then be kept out of office by an establishment stitch-up is almost the perfect result.
Even without winning the premiership, Wilders is already influencing Dutch politics. The House of Representatives recently voted for a partial ban on the burqa; Wilders made his name calling for a ban on the Quran. Wilders’s power also means that no Dutch government is going to be prepared to sign off on the fiscal transfers that would be needed to make the eurozone function properly as a currency union.
It is not the Dutch election that causes the most European concern, however, but the French one. There we have a similar story: Marine Le Pen versus the rest. She will probably make the final round in April and face François Fillon, the 62-year-old former Prime Minister. It won’t be the first time that the Front National has made the run-off, but back in 2002 Jean-Marie Le Pen won only 18 per cent of the vote. His daughter will run her opponent far closer.
Le Pen will distance herself from her old party and her father as much as possible; her campaign branding is all about ‘Marine’ — leaving out her surname and her party identification. Someone who talks to her regularly says that she will seek, like Trump, to run almost as an independent. Her strategy will be to portray Fillon as a Thatcherite hatchet man out to dismember the French social model. This could be a fertile line of attack as she seeks to garner more support from female voters and public-sector employees. She already commands strong support among working-class voters. Like Trump, she will pander to protectionist instincts as well as campaigning on ‘Islamification’ and immigration.
Fillon’s economically right-wing views and Catholic social conservatism will make it hard, perhaps impossible, for the left to vote for him. But the pacte républicain is surely still strong enough to keep the Front National out. And it is worth remembering that Le Pen has long believed that it is the election after next, in 2022, that offers her best chance of victory.
The election most likely to damage the European project is the Italian one — if it happens. Matteo Renzi’s resounding defeat in the recent constitutional reform referendum shows how angry Italians are. By some measures, southern Italy is now poorer than Poland, while manufacturing in northern Italy is struggling to compete because the euro has inflated its costs. Across the country as a whole, economic growth has been flat for 15 years. The IMF predicts that it will take Italy until the mid-2020s to return to its pre-crisis peak — after two lost decades. In these circumstances, one can see why voters there might regard a leap into the unknown as preferable to the status quo.
What makes Italy different from other countries is that there is not just one political party there that opposes the euro. Both main opposition parties are anti-euro, with a third increasingly so. Depending on the electoral system that ends up being used, the leading opposition party, Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement, has either more potential anti-EU support in a run-off round, or potential allies in parliament to help it form a government. Grillo says he won’t do deals with other parties to get into power, which limits Five Star’s prospects. But to have an anti-single-currency government come to power in Italy would be an even bigger shock to the EU than Brexit.
Germany’s elections promise to be far less dramatic. Angela Merkel is well-placed to secure another term as Chancellor, even if Alternative für Deutschland, the most vocal opponents of her handling of the refugee crisis, will probably win seats in the Bundestag for the first time. But AfD hasn’t quite worked out who will challenge Merkel. Most money is on Frauke Petry, a chemist and a mother of four who serves as co-chair of the party. Dubbed ‘Adolfina’ by her foes, her approach is milder than many of her colleagues. Marcus Pretzell, one of AfD’s seven MEPs, referred to those killed in the Islamist attack on the Christmas Market in Berlin as ‘Merkel’s dead’. Even the head of Merkel’s sister party, the CSU leader and Bavarian premier Horst Seehofer, has called for a rethink on her immigration policy because ‘we owe it to the victims.’
Merkel is still by far the most powerful politician in Europe — and her 57 per cent approval rating makes her an overwhelming favourite to win re-election. But those hoping she will secure a Brexit compromise will be as disappointed as David Cameron was by her failure to help him more during the renegotiation. The more she sees ‘populism’ on the rise, the more she’ll feel the need to defend the EU project.
The established order could scrape through this year in Europe. Dutch voters could shy away from Wilders when faced with the reality of voting for him; in France the ceiling on Le Pen’s support could turn out to be nearer 35 per cent than 50. The Italians, past masters at muddling on, might avoid fresh elections. But the populists will almost certainly end the year in a stronger position: that much closer to winning someday. Le Pen, for example, will almost certainly find her party with a sizeable presence in the National Assembly after the parliamentary elections.
The British, it is said, always underestimate the sheer political determination to keep the European project moving forward. But doing so now demands contradictory measures. If the insurgents in the south are to be kept at bay, then the eurozone must become a full transfer union, with proper burden-sharing on refugees. And that would create perfect conditions for insurgents in the north. Until — or unless — European leaders can resolve this conundrum, they will continue to dread elections.
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« on: December 29, 2016, 04:33:23 AM »
I'd say a candidate's gender has little to nothing to do with anything.
Eh, if women weren't allowed to vote Trump really would have won in one hell of a landslide. Even if it's nothing to do with overt sexism, there's probably some preferential bias in both men and women in voting for a candidate of the same sex.
395
« on: December 29, 2016, 04:32:12 AM »
Drugs?
What have I told you about projecting your degeneracy?
396
« on: December 28, 2016, 05:48:43 PM »
I remember learning about this in Russian history class.
Fucking Bolshies dissolved the Assembly because they got crushed by the SRs.
397
« on: December 28, 2016, 05:08:09 PM »
Ha!
398
« on: December 28, 2016, 09:10:18 AM »
Wake up america.
I fuckin' knew you'd post a Rockwell speech.
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« on: December 28, 2016, 04:43:37 AM »
It's the year the West fought back against relentless cuckoldry if anything.
By having a cuckold elected as leader of the free world.
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« on: December 28, 2016, 03:42:32 AM »
Weak people are affected by them.
Speeches can be an effective way of consolidating and conveying an already agreed-upon conclusion; such as fighting the Nazis. There's nothing wrong with being emotionally inspired about a principle or argument or whatever of which you have already established the rational validity.
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« on: December 28, 2016, 03:40:59 AM »
Dunno if that video is a meme or not
But
You shouldn't need a vidya to tell you how dumb AnCaps are
Just watch it.
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« on: December 28, 2016, 03:33:29 AM »
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« on: December 27, 2016, 12:43:52 PM »
Wait what, she was just stable
Stable means your organs, not brain activity. It's entirely possible to die while stable.
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« on: December 27, 2016, 09:18:16 AM »
chally's turned into a gook sympathising red
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« on: December 27, 2016, 08:57:49 AM »
chally's turned into a gook sympathising red
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« on: December 27, 2016, 08:49:09 AM »
From the Opinion Pages of the NYT, "Sorry, Liberals, Bigotry Didn't Elect Donald Trump": Donald J. Trump won the white working-class vote over Hillary Clinton by a larger margin than any major-party nominee since World War II. Instead of this considerable achievement inspiring introspection, figures from the heights of journalism, entertainment, literature and the Clinton campaign continue to suggest that Mr. Trump won the presidency by appealing to the bigotry of his supporters. As Bill Clinton recently said, the one thing Mr. Trump knows “is how to get angry white men to vote for him.”
This stereotyping of Trump voters is not only illiberal, it falsely presumes Mr. Trump won because of his worst comments about women and minorities rather than despite them.
In fact, had those people who agreed that Mr. Trump lacked “a sense of decency” voted for Mrs. Clinton, she would have been elected the next president.
Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump equally won over party loyalists. Yet about one in five voters did not have a favorable view of either candidate. These voters overwhelmingly backed Mr. Trump. Exit polls demonstrated that if voters who disapproved of both candidates had divided evenly between them, Mrs. Clinton would have won.
Several weeks before the election, a Quinnipiac University poll found that 51 percent of white working-class voters did not believe that Mr. Trump had a “sense of decency” and ranked Mrs. Clinton slightly higher on that quality.
But they were not voting on decency. Indeed, one-fifth of voters — more than 25 million Americans — said they “somewhat” disapproved of Mr. Trump’s treatment of women. Mr. Trump won three-quarters of these voters, despite their disapprobation.
Bluntly put, much of the white working class decided that Mr. Trump could be a jerk. Absent any other champion, they supported the jerk they thought was more on their side — that is, on the issues that most concerned them.
And anti-immigrant blowback, for instance, was not what unified them. Mr. Trump proposed expelling illegal immigrants yet more of his voters, by a 50 percent to 45 percent margin, said illegal immigrants working here should be offered a chance to apply for legal status rather than be deported.
In the Obama era, we also saw that race was not a critical driver of white swing votes. Barack Obama won more support among white men in 2008, including the working class, than any Democrat since 1980.
Mr. Obama’s support among these whites was at its peak in 2008 after the stock market crash. At the depths of the Great Recession that followed, blue-collar white men experienced the most job losses.
Their support began hemorrhaging after Mr. Obama chose early in his presidency — when congressional Democrats could have overcome Republican obstruction — to fight for health care reform instead of a “new New Deal.”
By 2016, Mr. Trump personified the vote against the status quo, one still not working out for them. A post-campaign study comparing the George W. Bush coalition in 2000 to the Trump coalition in 2016 found that Mr. Trump particularly improved in areas hurt most by competition from Chinese imports, from the bygone brick and tile industry of Mason City, Iowa, to the flagging furniture plants of Hickory, N.C. The study concluded that, had the import competition from China been half as large, Mrs. Clinton would have won key swing states and the presidency with them.
This argument does not ignore bigotry. Racism appeared more concentrated among Trump voters. One poll found that four in 10 Trump supporters said blacks were more “lazy” than whites, compared with one-quarter of Clinton or John Kasich supporters.
But traits are not motives and don’t necessarily decide votes. Consider that four in 10 liberal Democrats, the largest share of any group, said in 2011 that they would hold a Mormon candidate’s faith against him or her. It would be silly to argue that, therefore, liberals voted for Mr. Obama because Mitt Romney was Mormon.
Yet the Trump coalition continues to be branded as white backlash. The stereotyping forgets that many Trump supporters held a progressive outlook. Mr. Trump won nearly one in four voters who wanted the next president to follow more liberal policies.
Democrats need only recall Mr. Clinton to understand how voters can support someone in spite of his faults. Mr. Clinton won re-election in 1996 despite a majority, including about a third of liberal voters, saying he was not honest. His approval rating reached the highest point of his presidency during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. It wasn’t that Democrats and independents endorsed Mr. Clinton’s behavior. They opposed Republicans more.
Two decades later, we are reminded again that a vote for a presidential candidate is not a vote for every aspect of him. We can look for the worst in our opponents, but that doesn’t always explain how they got the best of us.
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« on: December 27, 2016, 07:23:57 AM »
408
« on: December 27, 2016, 07:21:01 AM »
"I will build a great wall -- and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me --and I'll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our northern border, and I will make Mongoria pay for that wall. Mark my words."
~Emperor Qin Shi Huang, 220BC
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« on: December 27, 2016, 06:49:28 AM »
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« on: December 27, 2016, 06:02:03 AM »
Yes, I know that it's unrealistic to expect capitalism to be efficient.
It's unrealistic of you to expect unproven systems to be more efficient.
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« on: December 26, 2016, 11:40:38 PM »
Wasn't there some fuck here who figured that we weren't a true capitalist system? There's no such thing, really. "True capitalism" might be construed as having everything, including legislation, controlled privately; but capitalism requires government to function properly. While capitalism is what's gotten us to where we are today we can't ignore the problems with it's current incarnation. I'm not saying we should. Merely that those who want to throw out the entire system have no leg to stand on; economic liberalisation and market integration throughout the 1980s in the developing world is responsible for halving global absolute poverty. The wealth inequality gap and distribution. I'd say mobility is a bigger issue than inequality (although I'm not convinced wealth inequality is particularly important issue, compared to income inequality) but there are certainly concerns with rent-seeking and trends in corporate governance over the past few decades.
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« on: December 26, 2016, 08:58:28 PM »
Why should world economics be crafted by someone who throws his money away and blames others?
I'm not saying it should; I'm just saying having poor personal finances and being a cunt does not necessarily make somebody a bad macroeconomist.
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« on: December 26, 2016, 08:54:10 PM »
Nowhere near as good as it should look?
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« on: December 26, 2016, 08:53:30 PM »
Yet people will still flock to the Marxist Meme even though he was a fucking idiot that had no idea how to properly manage his personal finances.
Personal finances are not ampliative to macroeconomics.
415
« on: December 26, 2016, 08:49:48 PM »
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« on: December 25, 2016, 10:55:22 AM »
Predatory advertising is certainly something that should be dealt with, although I'm not sure the government should be in the business of telling anybody that they shouldn't be spending $X on the given probability of an incredibly large payout.
The fact that it is state-run is fucked up, though.
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« on: December 25, 2016, 10:52:23 AM »
Just got back from my grandparents. Had a lovely meal and listened to the Queen's Speech.
Updated haulage list:
With regards to books, I got:
- A Political Philosophy: Arguments for Conservatism by Roger Scruton.
- The German Genius: Europe's Third Renaissance, Second Scientific Revolution and the Twentieth Century by Peter Watson.
- Politics: Between the Extremes by Nick Clegg.
- The Midas Paradox: Financial Markets, Government Policy Shocks and the Great Depression by Scott Sumner. Blair Unbound by Anthony Seldon.
- The New Tsar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin by Steven Lee Myers.
- The Great Outsider: David Lloyd George by Roy Hattersly.
- Recessions and Depressions by Todd Knoop.
On top of that I got a bunch of Hugo Boss clothing, a great new wallet, some practical stuff (towels, frying pans, bedsheets), £550 in combined cash from my parents and grandparents and an acre of land of Mars with a framed Title Deed.
All in all, very expensive Christmas.
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« on: December 25, 2016, 06:24:58 AM »
Daily Wire.According to a new report by Vocativ, the Islamic State is circulating a list of names and addresses of thousands of churches in Western countries, including the U.S., and urging its jihadist supporters to target them over the holidays.
The list of potential targets was disseminated via the pro-ISIS "Secrets of Jihadis" social media group on Telegram, a group Vocativ explains "provides manuals for the use and preparations of weapons and explosives for aspiring assailants." The message calls on the "sons of Islam" to attack "churches, well-known hotels, crowded coffee shops, streets, markets, and public places." It then provides a list of thousands of church addresses in four Western countries: Canada, France, the Netherlands, and the U.S.
Vocativ provides more details on the jihadists' call to turn Western streets into "rivers of blood":
A user going by the name of “Abu Marya al-Iraqi” posted an Arabic-language message calling “for bloody celebrations in the Christian New Year” and announced the group’s plans to utilize its network of lone wolf attackers to “turn the Christian New Year into a bloody horror movie, that will force [the infidels] to hide inside their burrows during their holidays and regret for the participation of their countries in the war against The Islamic State.”
“The lone wolves will turn the streets into rivers of blood, by ramming, exploding and poisoning,” he wrote. ...
In another group post, a member summoned “the sons of Islam” to target “churches, well-known hotels, crowded coffee shops, streets, markets and public places,” and shared a list of church addresses in the United States, as well as in Canada, France and the Netherlands.
Vocativ notes that the horrific attack in a Christmas market in Berlin this, which ISIS claimed responsibility for, falls right in line with the group's call to target public places in "coalition countries." Authorities have named a suspect for the Berlin market massacre: Anis Amri, a Tunisian, who German authorities failed to deport after denying asylum because of his sketchy past. Making the massacre even more insufferable, Amri was under surveillance for ties to Islamic extremists yet was able to carry out "the deadliest attack on German soil since 1980" in the country's capital city. Bring it, fascist scum. Let's see if the bleed the same as human beings.
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« on: December 25, 2016, 03:20:03 AM »
-snip-
420
« on: December 24, 2016, 07:59:13 AM »
UK Defence Journal: The United States took the top slot as the world’s super power, while Britain took the only Global Power slot, bringing her in second behind America.
Regional powers include France, China, India and Germany, while local powers were those such as Italy, Brazil, and Turkey.
The organisation European Geostrategy rate the United Kingdom as a global power, they define this as:
“A country lacking the heft or comprehensive attributes of a superpower, but still with a wide international footprint and [military] means to reach most geopolitical theatres, particularly the Middle East, South-East Asia, East Asia, Africa and South America.”
The British Armed Forces comprise the Royal Navy, a blue-water navy with a comprehensive and advanced fleet; the Royal Marines, a highly specialised amphibious light infantry force; the British Army, the UK’s principal land warfare force; and the Royal Air Force, with a diverse operational fleet consisting of modern fixed-wing and rotary aircraft.
The country is a major participant in NATO and other coalition operations and is also party to the Five Power Defence Arrangements. Recent operations have included Afghanistan and Iraq, peacekeeping operations in the Balkans and Cyprus, intervention in Libya and again operations over Iraq and Syria.
Overseas defence facilities are maintained at Ascension Island, Belize, Brunei, Canada, Diego Garcia, the Falkland Islands, Gibraltar, Kenya, Bahrain and Cyprus.
The UK still retains considerable economic, cultural, military, scientific and political influence internationally. It’s a recognised nuclear weapons state and its defence budget ranks fifth or sixth in the world. The country has been a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council since its inception.
UPDATE 9th August 2016: The US has overtaken Britain as the world’s leading “soft power”, according to a survey claiming that Barack Obama’s diplomatic moves in Iran, Cuba and Asia have helped to shift global opinion of the superpower. The Soft Power survey uses a range of polling and digital data to measure a country’s appeal on issues ranging from government, culture and cuisine to education, enterprise and the attractiveness of luxury brands.
Additionally, according to a study earlier this year, the UK leads the world in soft power.
Soft power is a concept developed by Joseph Nye of Harvard University to describe the ability to attract and co-opt rather than coerce, use force or give money as a means of persuasion. Soft power is the ability to shape the preferences of others through appeal and attraction. A defining feature of soft power is that it is noncoercive; the currency of soft power is culture, political values, and foreign policies. Recently, the term has also been used in changing and influencing social and public opinion through relatively less transparent channels and lobbying through powerful political and non-political organisations. In 2012, Nye explained that with soft power, “the best propaganda is not propaganda”, further explaining that during the Information Age, “credibility is the scarcest resource”.
The Soft Power 30, which uses a composite index to examine the strength of soft power assets at the disposal of countries, puts the UK above Germany, the United States, France and Canada, which occupy the next four places in the global league table.
Described by Professor Joseph Nye, who developed the concept of soft power, as “the clearest picture to date”, it is the first index to include the rising importance of digital assets and to use international polling to gauge national reputations across the world.
The United Kingdom also scores highly in the Chinese ranking system called ‘Comprehensive National Power’, this is a putative measure, important in the contemporary political thought of the People’s Republic of China, of the general power of a nation-state.
CNP is reportedly calculated numerically by combining various quantitative indices to create a single number held to measure the power of a nation-state. These indices take into account both military factors (known as hard power) and economic and cultural factors (known as soft power). CNP is notable for being an original Chinese political concept with no roots in either contemporary Western political theory, Marxism-Leninism, or pre-20th century Chinese thinking.
There is a general consensus that the United States is the nation with the highest CNP and that mainland China’s CNP ranks not only far behind the United States but also behind the United Kingdom, Russia, France and Germany.
The key in this matter is that while countries like China for example have a larger military than the United Kingdom, it does not have the logistical capability to deploy, support and sustain those forces overseas in large numbers.
Professor Malcolm Chalmers, director of UK Defence Policy Studies at the renowned Royal United Services Institute, says Britain would have a clear advantage in a straight fight at an equidistant location. This was described in a 2011 Briefing Paper:
“The UK will never again be a member of the select club of global superpowers. Indeed it has not been one for decades. But currently planned levels of defence spending should be enough for it to maintain its position as one of the world’s five second-rank military powers (with only the US in the first rank), as well as being (with France) one of NATO-Europe’s two leading military powers. Its edge – not least its qualitative edge – in relation to rising Asian powers seems set to erode, but will remain significant well into the 2020’s, and possibly beyond.”
According to Business Insider, Chalmers has since expanded on this:
“I think my 2011 comment remains valid. If you take individual elements of front line military capability – air, sea, land — the UK armed forces continue to outmatch those of China in qualitative terms by some margin. The UK also has greater capabilities for getting the most out of these forces, through key enabling capabilities (command and control, intelligence, strategic transport).
Not least, the UK has greater capability than China for operating at range. China (and even more so other Asian powers) remain focused on their immediate neighbourhoods, with limited capabilities for power projection. This is likely to change over the next decade. For now, though, China would still be out-matched qualitatively in a ‘straight fight’ with the UK in an equidistant location (the south Atlantic? The Gulf?), and would be unable to mobilise a force big enough to outweigh this quality gap. China’s quantitative advantages would come into play in the event of a conflict in its own neighbourhood – and its qualitative weaknesses would be less important, though still significant. So my statement was never meant to imply that the UK could outmatch China off the latter’s own coastline.”
Some people like to quote numbers from sites like Global Firepower, a site that rates countries on numbers without any regard for their ability to deploy, sustain and support those numbers, indeed it is the only place where a country gets a higher rank with 100 Soviet-era tanks than a country with 90 modern main battle tanks.
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