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Messages - More Than Mortal

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1321
Serious / Re: Post-Brexit UK economic downturn
« on: July 24, 2016, 12:36:29 AM »
Interesting data, to say the least, but aside from Reuters and the BBC I don't really trust any media sources to give an accurate depiction of the data (or it's implications).

I'll be withholding my judgement until we get some solid ONS data in the coming months.

EDIT: Should point out--my reading of the evidence definitely suggests some kind of nominal slowdown, although labour market reports prior to the referendum were strong, this could be accounted for by the fact that the market failed to price in the possibility of a Leave vote. There is not much room to manoeuvre in terms of monetary policy besides guidance and the delicate whispers of a broken man into the uninterested ears of a hooker, so we should be keeping an eye out for changes in fiscal and structural policy with the new May Cabinet.

Policy changes to look out for:
- Slowing down of fiscal consolidation.
- Increased investment in infrastructure.
- Greater devolution to Northern cities.
- Tax changes.
- Changes in planning laws, or alternatively renewed social housing construction.
- Changes in corporate management (currently not promising from May).
- Trade deals.
- Welfare.

Some of these are more likely than others. It's pretty hard to overstate the importance of changes in fiscal policy and trade deals, as well as the uncertainty surrounding the latter. Tax changes and planning law reform could prove to be instrumental, but I doubt the government will exploit these opportunities. Welfare will probably see marginal changes. I expect no real progress in education or healthcare, so did not list them.

1322
The Flood / what causes misanthropy
« on: July 24, 2016, 12:33:34 AM »
seriously

1323
The Flood / Re: get the fuck in here
« on: July 23, 2016, 07:51:26 PM »
icyts a little bitch

weres desty

1324
The Flood / get the fuck in here
« on: July 23, 2016, 07:42:42 PM »
https://plug.dj/aoki

godda,mn faggots

1325
The Flood / Re: Right or left brain test
« on: July 21, 2016, 01:31:41 PM »
100% right brain

I had a lobotomy
Lobotomy removes part of the prefrontal lobe

THE JOKE FAILS
it was a botched lobotomy
brought it back

1326
Am I reading this wrong or does this just say that the uncertainty before the referendum didn't result in sharp economic downturn, with there not yet being sufficient recent data to judge the reaction to the actual Brexit vote?
Wow, rereading that quote from the Telegraph just made me clock how poorly written it is. It seems to contradict itself literally within two sentences.

EDIT: I think it means strong labour market data before the referendum, and the BoE saying it sees no sharp downturn after the referendum, are both at play.

1327
The Flood / Re: Right or left brain test
« on: July 20, 2016, 04:27:10 PM »

1328
where were u wen labore was kill

1329
Nah, seriously, Labour is getting battered:



The Tories have gone from 20pc working-class support to 35pc. IIRC, this gives them the most working-class voters of any party since 2010.

1330
Fuck me.

Tories are on 40pc (+10).
Labour are on 29pc (-4).
UKIP are on 12pc (-8).

1331
The Flood / Re: IT'S TOO HOT LADS
« on: July 20, 2016, 10:23:04 AM »
its 29 degrees and im dying

1332
Serious / Re: Considering a religious conversion
« on: July 20, 2016, 05:45:17 AM »
Why are you considering becoming religious because your girlfriend is nice. Your girlfriend of three months.

Whether or not her and her family are nice is utterly irrelevant to the truth of the Islamic faith. If you want to convert, think about the metaphysical claims of Islam--or any other religion. Think about the content of the religion.

1333
The Telegraph.

Quote
The pound has extended its gains against the dollar and is now up 0.6pc on the day at $1.3194 following a strong jobs report and the Bank of England agents report.

Jasper Lawler, of CMC Markets, said: "​The positive labour market data surprise coupled with the Bank of England saying it sees “no evidence of a sharp slowing of activity” after the referendum triggered gains in the British pound. The ONS was careful to point out that data was collected before the vote was known, but it now seems undeniable that there was no slowdown in economic activity as a result of uncertainty before the referendum.

The question that remains unanswered is whether the economy has begun to slow afterwards. Still, based on available data, the Bank of England has scant evidence to justify a big easing of monetary policy. Retail sales on Thursday will be the next test."

1335
And you're right, I thought the BoE decision did change its policy but turns out what I read was just speculation from a while back. My bad.
That's not to say the BoE decision didn't have any impact. The very act of not moving rates could be seen as a signal to markets to stop worrying, as nothing is that bad. I was just pointing out that the BoE, at least right now, isn't being overtly aggressive.

1336
It's a solid idea.
It really isn't. Monetary economists have been opposed to it since its inception. It doesn't make sense to have a common currency area without a fiscal and banking union.

And we may indeed see those, but from its beginning to until we see those unions, the Euro has been a political project with little regard for the economics.

1337
we're seeing right now are the direct result of the Bank of England's monetary policy changes last week.
There was no monetary policy change. Rates were maintained.

1338
The Flood / Re: get in here you fucking faggots
« on: July 19, 2016, 03:25:09 PM »

1339
The Flood / get in here you fucking faggots
« on: July 19, 2016, 03:05:14 PM »

1340
The Flood / Re: Just finished Sons of Anarchy on Netflix
« on: July 19, 2016, 01:08:44 PM »
Jax walks like a pure gimp.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who spotted this.

1341
The Flood / Spoiler Just finished Sons of Anarchy on Netflix
« on: July 19, 2016, 12:49:51 PM »
Was actually bretty gud

1342
Serious / Re: 2016 Septagon General Election Poll
« on: July 19, 2016, 12:11:24 PM »
#feelthejohnson

1343
The Flood / Re: Cuck/interracial porn is racist
« on: July 19, 2016, 07:58:26 AM »
You're probably just mad that your wife left you for a darkie.

1344
Who supposedly had a fucking ISIS flag in his room. This comes not long after Merkel admitted some terrorists have been smuggled into Europe through the recent flow of refugees.

1345
The rise of ISIS and the current instability in the region CAN be attributed to the US, however.
ISIS existed as far back as 1999, and rose to prominence by managing to capture Eastern Syrian oilfields. Was the coalition partly responsible for the instability in the region? Sure. But our biggest sin was pulling troops out too early, not that we were too involved.

1346
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3693476/Jobs-150-000-referendum-shock-Boss-Reed-says-majority-firms-no-plans-freeze-recruitment.html

Quote
Recruitment specialist Reed Group said demand for new staff has flourished since the referendum, with 150,000 more jobs added to its website in the past three weeks compared with the same period last year.

James Reed, chairman of the £1 billion-plus turnover group, said the 8 per cent increase was a sign that it was ‘business as usual’ despite fears that job vacancies could drop. The growth – in line with the first half of the year – bucks fears of a recruitment crash.

‘The situation is surprisingly good,’ Reed said. ‘The vote hasn’t affected things. People are still hiring and there are lots of opportunities.

‘If a drop in confidence begins to feed through I think we’d be the first to see it. We were the first to see the jobs recovery after the financial crisis because people advertise jobs that only later come through in Government statistics.’

Reed added that 83 per cent of companies it surveyed said they did not plan to freeze recruitment, although two-thirds of the firms had backed Remain before the referendum.

1347
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/germany-proposes-eu-defence-union-brexit/

Quote
With Britain out of the picture, Germany and France will forge deeper defence cooperation in the European Union.

As reported by the Reuters news agency, Germany’s Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen said on July 13 that Britain had “paralysed” such initiatives in the past.

“I can tell you from experience that in the past Britain has said it will not do these things,” she told a news conference. “This paralysed the European Union on the issues of foreign and security policy. This cannot mean that the rest of Europe remains inactive, but rather we need to move forward on these big issues.”

In related news, Deutsche Welle (DW), Germany’s international broadcaster, noted that Germany’s new planning report about defence and security policies.

The 2016 White Paper marks a major shift for Germany, which has long refrained from sending troops abroad in international conflicts.

According to DW, Germany now deploys troops to conflict zones, from the Balkans to Afghanistan and Mali, but kept out of the Nato intervention in Libya. In a non-combat role, Germany is part of the international alliance against Islamic State.

Germany’s opposition Left Party, however, was quick to criticise the defence ministry’s plan. In a statement, the party said: “The ‘white paper’ is nothing but a written demand for more money for more soldiers, for more military operations and more military equipment. It’s a ‘white paper’ for armaments and war”.

1348
they didnt feel the need to disseminate the specifics of the torture to the public in the immediate aftermath.
I'd still count that as suppression of information. A government doesn't just not release information; there has to be a sustained effort on many levels to decide to release some details and not others. Whether it's malicious is irrelevant.

1349
What's the story behind this?
Some guy was big into nature and looking after bears, and was making a movie. But, him and his girlfriend were mauled and eaten by two bears; his camera recorded nothing but their agonised screams as they were attacked. Only a few people have ever heard it.

Werner Herzog listened to it during a documentary about Treadwell, and was uncharacteristically shaken after hearing it. He told Treadwell's friend (in possession of the tape) to turn it off, paused for a few seconds and simply told her that she must never listen to it. The tape is now apparently in a bank vault.

EDIT: Wrote "Treadmill" instead of Treadwell.

1350
https://youtu.be/UrUEZQi9yMI?t=653

This relevant/help out?


In Mr N's description-
Quote
I'm being told this last recording was a re-enactment, and after a little more research, it seems this is probably true. The official audio recording has apparently been held private by police.




http://www.yellowstone-bearman.com/Tim_Treadwell.html
According to Werner Herzog, who listened to the audio (in the possession of Treadwell's friend) during the making of Grizzly Man, the tape is held in a bank vault.

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