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The Flood / Fuck Nasty, post here if you want my opinion of you
« on: July 08, 2015, 03:22:08 PM »
Apart from all of you being faggots of course.
This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to. 601
The Flood / Fuck Nasty, post here if you want my opinion of you« on: July 08, 2015, 03:22:08 PM »
Apart from all of you being faggots of course.
602
Serious / Greece's no vote mean they will have tougher bailout requirements« on: July 08, 2015, 09:10:31 AM »
Financial Times
Quote In the strongest language since the start of the six-month stand-off between the far-left government in Athens and eurozone lenders, EU leaders said the No vote in last Sunday’s referendum had severely constrained their ability to offer Greece aid and warned any new bailout deal would include much tougher terms than those that could have been reached just two weeks ago. 603
Serious / Are all opinions potentially objectively right or wrong?« on: July 07, 2015, 09:27:55 PM »
If you express an opinion, you're essentially expressing a proposition. So long as the language used is utterly water-tight, then it seems any proposition can be empirically quantifiable.
For instance, let's take the most subjective instance I can think of: "I think chocolate cake is best", where best = providing the most pleasurable stimulus. Immediately you can set up a neurocognitive experiment to determine if chocolate cake is indeed best for the individual in question. It's unlikely that the person in question is wrong about the cake that provides them with the most pleasure, but certainly not impossible. Indeed, it's entirely possible that you could perform a global population-wide experiment to determine which kind of cake is objectively the "best" on net. 604
The Flood / why does milwaukee have such an awful fucking flag« on: July 07, 2015, 09:10:32 PM »like goddamn 605
Serious / Is it wise for humanity to be broadcasting its location into space?« on: July 07, 2015, 08:49:39 PM »
Given what little evidence we've actually gathered about evolution and the inherent competitiveness within highly evolved species, it doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest that if there were some kind of advanced alien species out there capable of receiving our messages, that they could be incredibly militaristic and violent.
One of the more terrifying answers to the Fermi Paradox is that the aliens are hiding. But they aren't hiding from us, they're concealing themselves from a much greater cosmic terror. In light of such (tentative) possibilities, is it wise for us to wantonly broadcast messages to the stars? 606
Serious / German missile battery in Turkey potentially controlled by hackers« on: July 07, 2015, 08:04:45 PM »
Jesus Christ.
People like to bag on the US for using floppy disks and shit on their military equipment, but they do it precisely so this doesn't happen. EDIT: Changed "briefly" to "potentially" in the title. The article shoves the word hacker in your face, but really it's a case of speculation about weak-spots. It could have been hackers, but more than likely it was a malfunction. 608
The Flood / I used to know this guy in a black van who'd hand out candy to the local kids« on: July 07, 2015, 12:26:12 PM »
He called himself Terry Toucher. He was a real handsy guy, but friendly as they come. Terry would drive around the neighborhood in his old tinted out Astrovan, honking an electronic clown horn that he installed on his dash. All the neighborhood kids knew it was candy time. Terry had all the best candy: Snickers, Reeces, Pop rocks, and even Big League Chew. He'd let you get a whole fistful. All he asked in return was that we all lined up and get searched, you know to check for weapons. You can never be too careful. I swear, he must've had a background in medicine because he looked in places I never thought it was possible to hide a weapon.
On Thursdays, Terry had the lottery. It was really exciting. One lucky kid got to be his co pilot, got all the candy he wanted, and got to go see Terry's pet snake. I never was lucky enough to win the lottery, but my friend Billy did. I asked him how it was and he said he didn't want to talk about it. Terry must've told him all kinds of top secrets. I was so jealous of Billy. It's a shame Billy had to move away to Florida and go stay in a special hospital for people with sick minds. Terry stopped coming around soon after Billy left. I guess he got called off on some kind of special mission or something. I saw his picture in the paper around then. I think he got famous from giving out all that candy and doing those missions. What a great guy. 609
Serious / What do economists agree on?« on: July 07, 2015, 11:52:00 AM »
Consensus is a notoriously hard thing to come across in economics, especially since it looks from the outside as if there are numerous divergent schools of thought (there are really only two, in truth: saltwater and freshwater, with numerous strands within). So, allow me to elucidate just what the profession actually agrees on.
Of course, given that we're discussing economics, don't take "consensus" to mean "accepted by all mainstream economists without proviso". Economic growth and inequality: Spoiler - In the long-run, economic growth comes mostly from increased labour productivity. - The increases in real US median income since 1980 substantially underestimates how much people in the median household are better off now. - The recent decline in oil prices will promote higher real GDP in the US. - Piketty was wrong about inequality. - Rising market wages are a better explanation for the fall in family size than changes in medical technology or social norms. - Automation has historically not reduced employment in the US. - Sustained tax and spending policies that boost consumption at the expense of savings are likely to result in lower long-run living standards. - Technological change has probably contributed to inequality. Monetary policy, taxes & spending and recessions: Spoiler - In the long-run, the rate of inflation is directly proportional to the rate of growth in the money supply. - In the long-run, the level of output is independent of the money supply (above source). - In the short-run, monetary policy affects both inflation and output. - The government should use stabilisation policies to counter-act recessions. - Monetary and fiscal policymaking should be analysed by rules instead of discretion.* - Macroeconomic policy is affected by how the private sector perceives such policies. - Monetary policy wouldn't benefit from greater Congressional oversight. - If monetary policy is stabilising the business cycle, there is no need for fiscal stimulus. - In the long-run, exchange rates reflect purchasing power parity. In the short-run, we have no idea what drives exchange rates. - Changes to tax rates can affect revenue by altering people's behaviour. - Had the Scottish voted for independence, they would've likely faced greater macroeconomic instability for many years. - Due to the Obama stimulus, the unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would've been otherwise. - The benefits of Obama's stimulus will likely end up exceeding its costs. - Chairman Ben Bernanke will be judged favourably in future economic analysis. - If the US government fails to make scheduled payments on interest or principle debt, businesses and households will suffer severe economic consequences. - Bitcoin sucks. Trade: Spoiler -Policies which decrease the trade deficit will usually not increase the population's welfare. - Fast-track authority for trade deals allows major trade deals to be concluded more expediently. - Past major trade deals have benefited most Americans. - Trade with China makes most Americans better off. - Free trade is great Immigration: Spoiler - The average US citizen would be better off if large numbers of low-skilled immigrants were allowed to enter the US each year. - Unless they were somehow compensated, low-skilled US workers would be worse off if large numbers of immigrants were allowed to enter the US each year. - The average US citizen would be better off if a large number of high-skilled immigrants were allowed to move to the US each year. Welfare, healthcare and the minimum wage: Spoiler - Many US state and local governments understate their pension liabilities. - Unless US states cut spending, raise taxes or change public-sector pensions over the next two decades, many of them will require severe austerity, a federal bailout or default. - Raising the minimum wage to $9/hr is worth it. - Long-run fiscal sustainability will require cuts to Medicaid. - Loosening certain licensing requirements in US healthcare would benefit consumers. Vaccines, California's drought, the financial system, discrimination, Uber, small businesses and manufacturing: Spoiler - Not getting vaccinated imposes a cost upon other individuals. And, the social benefit of mandating vaccinations outweighs the social cost. - Californians would be better off if all final users in the state paid the same price for water, even if food prices rose and some farms failed. - There is a social value to having financial institutes which issue liquid liabilities backed by illiquid assets. - Employers which discriminate in hiring will be at a competitive disadvantage, presuming the customers do not care. - Uber's surge pricing raises consumer welfare. - Policies that focus on small business probably aren't useful. - The US wouldn't make the average US citizen better off if they tried to increase manufacturing employment. 610
The Flood / if verb is the originator of the pineapple meme, AND a meme himself« on: July 06, 2015, 08:16:25 PM »
does that make him a metameme?
if so what the fuck does that make me 613
The Flood / Why is Elegiac such a boring cunt?« on: July 06, 2015, 06:04:31 PM »
Did a dingo take his baby?
WHAT PINEAPPLE, BITCH 614
Serious / isidewith presidential candidates quiz« on: July 06, 2015, 04:28:39 PM »
http://www.isidewith.com/
Here are my results. 79pc for both Bush and Rubio. Surprisingly the highest Democrat is Bernie Sanders on 53pc, although looking through the answers that seems overstated. A lot of my "similar" answers to Sanders aren't all that similar; although I do strongly agree with Sanders on immigration issues. By issue: Education - Jeb Bush. Foreign Policy - Marco Rubio. Economy - Jeb Bush. Healthcare - Rick Perry. Environment - Scott Walker. Immigration - Bernie Sanders. Domestic Policy - Chris Christie Social - Mike Huckabee. 615
Serious / Daily reminder that Thomas Piketty was wrong about inequality« on: July 06, 2015, 04:10:39 PM »
Like, exceptionally wrong.
Piketty was the French dude who said r > g (or that the return on capital was greater than the growth rate, thus wealth concentrates with those who own capital). Inequality, primarily, appears to be coming from rising real-estate rents. 616
Serious / Worst president in history?« on: July 06, 2015, 03:23:21 PM »
From a policy, not personality, perspective. I always find it really hard to pick a good president, probably because I'm such a cynic. But it's super easy to pick bad ones.
For me, it's a tie between FDR and Hoover. 617
Serious / People who don't engage in philosophy and politics are fucking parasites« on: July 06, 2015, 12:40:28 PM »
And I mean fucking parasites, covertly riding the wave of the progress which came before them. "I don't want to think about morality, it's confusing", or "I don't like talking about politics, it makes me uncomfortable". Fuck you.
It's ridiculous. Who cares if it's uncomfortable? Who cares if you don't enjoy it? I sure as hell don't. Life isn't supposed to be your hedonistic paradise, where you can unplug from reality and just drift about ignorant in your little matrix. Nobody's asking that you become Socrates Anew, and die for your proclamations. Just engage. Do a bit of work, vote, think a little. The social, moral and political architects of humanity have died, been tortured and faced social ostracisation so that you can have your "comfortable" life. Was Rosa Parks comfortable? MLK? Luther? Socrates? Nietzsche? The men who fought and died at Omaha? Fuck no, they weren't. It's pathetic. These people who don't care about freedom of expression, is there anybody worth listening to less than these fucks? People need to start thinking for themselves, once in a while. 620
Serious / UK's biggest trade union backs Jeremy Corbyn for Labour leadership« on: July 06, 2015, 10:19:08 AM »
How interesting.
Corbyn? Why would they choo- Oh, yeah, that's right. Trade unions are actors with their own interests as much as any corporation, not proles fighting the good fight. 621
Serious / Greeks vote "No" in referendum, and reject the latest bailout deal« on: July 05, 2015, 04:26:04 PM »623
Serious / The Left’s Microaggression Obsession Is Indicative of Its Micro-totalitarianism« on: July 04, 2015, 03:38:02 PM »
Thomas Sowell.
Article: Quote The political Left has come up with a new buzzword: “microaggression.” Professors at the University of California at Berkeley have been officially warned against saying such things as “America is the land of opportunity.” Why? Because this is considered to be an act of “microaggression” against minorities and women. Supposedly it shows that you don’t take their grievances seriously and are therefore guilty of being aggressive toward them, even if only on a micro scale. You might think that this is just another crazy idea from Berkeley. But the same concept appears in a report from the flagship campus of the University of Illinois at Urbana. If you just sit in a room where all the people are white, you are considered to be guilty of “microaggression” against people who are not white, who will supposedly feel uncomfortable when they enter such a room. 625
The Flood / Got a badass lightning storm right now« on: July 03, 2015, 07:14:26 PM »
I love lightning.
626
Serious / Bernie Sanders fucking SUCKS MEATY BALLS« on: July 03, 2015, 06:07:46 PM »
I don't like him. Here's why:
Here is Bernie Sanders' platform. Let's review. I'll try to address all of his proposals, but some of them have pretty much zero content on them. I'll tackle what I can. Rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure: It's more correct to say that America has mis-invested rather than under-invested in infrastructure. The problem of America's infrastructure is wildly over-stated. The American Society of Civil Engineer's uses the Department of Transportation's "red list" to support their analysis of infrastructural well-being (which is hardly impartial), and it's essentially a dishonest attempt at mincing with the words "structurally deficient". People usually take it to mean "dangerous", when in fact all it means is not up to current construction standards. Most of the things on the DOT's list were simply built prior to an increase in said standards. Most of what appears on the red list offers no value in terms of replacement, and is completely serviceable. IGM has conducted a poll of economists on this issue, and the results are pretty clear: there are high-return projects available, but it's far from clear that they will I) be identified and II) actually promote growth. Sanders also seems interested in infrastructural projects exactly for growth and jobs. Despite the fact there is very little evidence to suggest that infrastructure does promote growth when considered in a neoclassical model, and New Keynesian models only find a moderate positive effect for highway spending over the medium-run. Reversing climate change: No real content to these proposals either. Exactly how does Sanders want to induce this paradigm shift to sustainable energy? Given his priors, it will probably be a combination of regulation and subsidies which are pretty much universally considered to be inefficient when compared to a Pigouvian excise tax on the production and importation of goods. It's also interesting to see no mention of nuclear power, despite the fact that it's currently our most promising route for achieving cleaner energy. The other policy worth considering besides a tax on pollution would be precisely to lower the regulatory burden on nuclear energy, given the disproportionate amount they shoulder. Growing the trade unions: I'm actually going to endorse Clinton on this issue. Allow work councils to represent labour over trade unions. Trade unions are monolithic beasts who too often act like the people they claim to be protecting workers against. Raising the minimum wage: I've dealt with this before; wage subsidies are a much better solution to poverty, minimum wages are pretty ineffectual actually and have demonstrable long-run negative consequences on employment growth. The idea of a living wage is incredibly stupid, and probably doublespeak for a $15 MW. If we can't have an expansion of EITC, I'd support a $10 MW, but $15 is fucking lunacy. Pay equality for women: Nope. Not even fucking touching this one. Trade policies that benefit American workers: Well this is just dumb. Free trade doesn't result in unemployment, it probably doesn't increase inequality and involves a transfer, not loss. of wages. I also feel the need to comment on the fact that it's ridiculously chauvinistic of Sanders to essentially discount the massive gains the poorest in the world feel from trade because he wants to appeal to American workers. He's either incredibly stupid, or incredibly callous. Making college affordable for all: I don't even know where this is coming from, really. There's very little evidence for credit constraints; the issue stems from the fact that tuition loans can't be dealt with via bankruptcy. If anything, the US is producing too many people with degrees. Taking on Wall Street: This is just a long line of errors and mistaken ideas. Financial investment doesn't count towards GDP, so the comparison is pretty much useless. There is some evidence to suggest that the US has a larger financial sector (and individual banks) than is optimal for an economy, although it's possible that the Recession itself corrected this. Nevertheless, breaking up the banks is just a bad idea; the US should be seeking to emulate Canada, which has huge banks who manage to avoid financial crises by virtue of being highly diversified. Personally, I also think some macroprudential regulation to increase capital requirements, end too-big-too-fail and control the use of mortgage-backed securities are good moves. Sanders also seems to be conflating the financial crisis and the Recession; the financial crisis was, indeed, caused by toxic, securitised mortgage debt but there is little evidence that the ensuing debt crisis and financial disintermediation had any serious negative consequences for the economy. There's some evidence that falling house prices in 2006-7 led to an initial consumption shock, although the primary cause of the Recession seems to be monetary disequilibrium which then triggered and intensified the sub-prime debt crisis. Healthcare as a right for all: Bernie Sander's dislike for the US healthcare system is warranted, of course. . . It's a fucking mess. I've seen him criticise rising healthcare costs in the past, but estimates for healthcare premiums are relatively unchanged at around 20-30pc; rising costs come primarily from technological changes. It's nigh-on impossible to compare outcomes in healthcare between developed countries, since public health will be determined more by lifestyle than the actual effectiveness of the healthcare industry; some very limited evidence suggests that, if we could control for lifestyle bias, the US would probably come out on top. Changing to a single-payer system wouldn't be particularly good (evidence from such systems like the NHS would suggest there isn't any guarantee of quality or success, and given the nature of the US political system this criticism is more than relevant. If anything, the US should transition to a multi-tiered insurance system like that of Germany. Protecting the most vulnerable Americans: Again, less meat and more problems. Strengthening social security is just a short-term cover-up to a long-term problem which isn't going to disappear by throwing more and more money at it. Certain population dynamics make it an unsustainable system (seriously, why the fuck are you giving welfare to well-off seniors?). Current CBO projections put soc-sec as running out of money in 2033. It's essentially just a redistributive tax; what the US needs to do is start transitioning to mandatory, private retirement funds. When it comes to poverty, it's again pretty clear what we should do: wage subsidies, like the EITC. Real tax reform: This is pretty much all shit. There isn't any kind of consensus on whether or not income inequality has increased in the US. CPS doesn't accurately measure income, and CPI doesn't accurately measure inflation across all income groups; people just don't experience inflation in the same ways. Accordingly, a straight GINI line records growing income inequality simply through data bias. Even if this were the case, there isn't any clear economic evidence that inequality harms the economy; personally, I think it does to some degree, but it's far from the case that Sanders has the answers. When it comes to capital's share of income displacing labour (think Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century), the primary issue is coming from land and associated things like rent. Land itself is artificially made scarce by legislation which restricts planning (zoning laws, and the like). This is true of both Britain and the US. Consensus on corporation tax does exist, and they're fucking terrible. Corporation taxes should be abolished, outright. They are paid mostly by labour in the long-run, in the form of lower wages and are ridiculously distortionary. The abolition of corporation taxes in the US would have myriad benefits, including greater investment, higher output, wage growth, higher savings and an expanded tax base. It would, quite clearly, result in a Pareto improvement and provide significant welfare benefits for future generations. The problem with having strong opinions on how tax ought to be structured is that people are often unwilling to consider that they might be wrong, simply by virtue of confusing an economic issue for a political one. I, personally, prefer a combination of progressive consumption and property taxes; although a good tax plan which Sanders would never accept is the X-tax, which combines a flat tax with progressive wage subsidies. 627
Serious / Income redistribution/minimum wage rises won't stimulate the economy« on: July 03, 2015, 09:43:44 AM »
From the San Francisco Fed.
The SF Fed notes the standard calculation: Quote The figure suggests that households at the lower end of the income distribution spend more than twice what they make. At the upper end, households spend about two-thirds of what they make. Given this large difference in the propensity to consume between low- and high-income households, we consider the economic impact of levying a $1 tax on the rich and transferring it to the poor. This would reduce the high-income household’s spending by about $0.66 and increase the low-income household’s spending by $2, assuming each group spent additional dollars at their average rates. On net, it would create an increase in spending of more than $1.25. Even if the average for households in the bottom decile is overstated and they simply consume all the income they make, Figure 1 suggests every $1 of redistribution from the top earners to the bottom one-third of the income distribution would boost spending by at least $0.33. They go on to note that the actual effect is lower than the standard calculation: Quote First, let’s focus on the lower end of the income distribution. Figure 1 suggests that spending of the 10% of households with the lowest levels of income is about twice as much as they make a year. Households in the second and third deciles of the income distribution spend, on average, 40% and 26% more than they make, respectively. In fact, taking these data at face value we would conclude that only households in the top 60% of the income distribution have positive saving rates on average. This would imply that a large segment of the population, approximately 40%, is spending well beyond its means. The primary reason for this, according to the SF Fed is poor reporting of actual income statistics in the US, as ex post income transfers aren't taken into account. Accordingly, there are disparities between income and consumption statistics. Quote Another measurement issue that may explain the observed high spending rates of households in the bottom of the income distribution is that they may understate their actual income. This could result from underreporting government transfer payments, as documented in Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan (2009), or other sources of income. In conclusion: Quote Surveys show low-income households tend to spend a larger share of their income than high-income households. Because of this, temporarily redistributing income from the rich to the poor could stimulate consumption and, through that, the economy as a whole. However, there is evidence that differences in propensities to consume this additional income across households are smaller than commonly assumed. I'm posting this to try and elucidate the idea that redistributive policy should be done for the sake of eliminating poverty and providing a stable social safety net. When it comes the countercyclical policy, it should be left primarily to monetary and macroprudential endeavours. 628
Serious / Keynesianism and Marxism« on: July 03, 2015, 07:36:03 AM »
I always find it funny how Marxist/Socialists seem enamoured with Keynes. The man was an incredibly ardent supporter of capitalism, to the point of publicly refuting a close friend who claimed he had read Marx and agreeing with the sentiments of Hayek's Road to Serfdom.
Hell, he even said this about Marxism in Russia: Quote How can I accept a doctrine which sets up as its bible, above and beyond criticism, an obsolete economic textbook which I know to be not only scientifically erroneous but without interest or application for the modern world? How can I adopt a creed which, preferring the mud to the fish, exalts the boorish proletariat above the bourgeois and the intelligentsia who, with whatever faults, are the quality in life and surely carry the seeds of all human advancement? Even if we need a religion, how can we find it in the turbid rubbish of the Red bookshops? Keynes's description of the Great Depression essentially captured this: "We have magneto trouble". Keynes's view was that the history of capitalism was a history of technical faults to be corrected, not that capitalism was inherently contradictory or had some kind of sociological time-limit. The fundamental distinction between Keynesianism and Marxism is that Keynesianism is good economics. Marxism just doesn't hold up to scrutiny: Quote While radical economics has provided a critique of economic theory, it has been more concerned with presenting a critique of capitalism. It is not just that markets do not provide a constrained Pareto efficient outcome—though that is a welcome first step in the critique—but that capitalism is fundamentally flawed. Mainstream economists have not only found concepts like exploitation and power to be useless in explaining economic phenomena, but they worry about introducing such emotionally charged words into the analysis. But that is presumably precisely why the radical economists choose to use such words: they want the analysis to motivate action. It is in their implicit or explicit policy prescriptions that radical economists fail to make their case. The contention that markets are not constrained Pareto efficient does suggest a role for government, but even that needs to be qualified: the theorems have little to say about whether actual governments can undertake the appropriate roles. Moreover, proving that markets are imperfect does not necessarily imply anything is radically wrong with the capitalist system. Even when it comes to the more moderate social democrats, the love with Keynes is somewhat misplaced. The creation and development of a welfare state primarily came from Germany under Bismarck, before Keynes was born, and then from Beveridge in Britain. (As an interesting aside, Beveridge actually viewed the welfare state as a potential channel for eugenics, believing people who had to be supported by the State should suffer "complete and permanent loss of all citizen rights – including not only the franchise but civil freedom and fatherhood."). Keynes's view on a social welfare net is rather, well, non-existent. Keynes didn't believe a social safety net would be necessary, since he viewed the government's role as one of a massive consumer which would push the economy towards full employment whenever it deviated. When it comes to programmes like the New Deal, Keynes was rather critical, believing it to be poorly constructed. Basically, Keynes was a reactionary, capitalist pig. 629
Serious / Tunisia to close 80 mosques in response to the Sousse Attack« on: July 03, 2015, 07:24:13 AM »
Regional Post.
Quote TUNISIA : Prime Minister, Habib Essid, told on Friday that the Tunisian government plans to shutter 80 mosques that remain beyond the state control kindling violence as a protective measure after the terrorist attack at a hotel in Sousse that killed 39 people. Good on them. 630
The Flood / I'm going camping with four mates tomorrow morning« on: June 28, 2015, 06:00:58 PM »
And I won't return till Thursday.
It's okay, you can cry. Daddy still loves you, he just has to go away for a while. |