Problem for Trump is that this is a national poll, and he's still losing in the must-win states.

Clinton is bound to win every state that has voted Democratic since 1992, which includes California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

That gives her 221 Electoral Votes, as shown on the map.



Pennsylvania, a battleground state, has also voted Democratic (Thanks to the suburbs of Philly) since 1992 and is a state Trump has yet to lead a single time in. Adding their 20 brings Clinton to 241.

Virginia, home to VP Tim Kaine, voted Democrat in 2008 and 2012 - and Clinton Has a 6 point lead there, thanks to Arlington//Alexandria and other northern cities around DC. Their 13 votes bring Clinton up to 254.

Colorado is a moderately Democratic state, and Clinton has lead by an average of 5 points since the start of October. The two polls done since Comey's announcement do show a narrow lead of 1-3 points, but hasn't seem to elevate Trump's chances. Assuming early vote tracking is accurate, Clinton would carry their 9 votes to 263. Even if Colorado were to go Republican, New Mexico's latino population (and 5 electoral votes) would also put Clinton over the top when matched with the others.

North Carolina is really going to be the deciding vote, and again, Clinton is up 6 points, 47-41 - even with the ABC/WaPo poll data included. Clinton's support among minority voters - specifically the large African American vote and early voters - is holding up her poll numbers - and would put her over the edge with 278 electoral votes.



If Donald Trump wants any chance at winning, he has to pick off North Carolina and Michigan/Wisconsin - and polling shows that he is failing in those states.

At best, you're looking at an outcome similar to 2000 - Trump wins the popular vote, but Clinton wins the electoral college

I'd also like to point out that this ABC poll has been tightening for a while, from a 12 point difference, to a 4, to now a tie. Way before this story broke loose.

Not a real surprise - there's been a larger percentage of undecided voters sitting on the fence for a longer time this election.

Quote from: Icy on November 01, 2016, 02:20:11 PM

Due you think Clinton still has a good chance of winning despite this Anthony Weiner thing?

She's still the favorite. Trump still has a hard time getting to 270 despite all of this, unless you're being very generous.

Quote from: Icy on November 01, 2016, 02:20:11 PM

Due you think Clinton still has a good chance of winning despite this Anthony Weiner thing?

She's ahead in early voting in states that she needs to win - and by margins that align with what polls are predicting her win at.

However, the African American vote has fallen since 2008 and 2012 and enthusiasm among Democrats is down.

Good chance? Yes. Definite chance? No.

>it's good if Clinton wins by technicality
>it was god-awful when Bush won by technicality

Winning the popular vote, but not the electoral college (Or vice versa) isn't really a technicality.

That would be "Well, these 600 ballots had Gore's name misspelled, so he can't claim them to win"

Quote from: Icy on November 02, 2016, 10:11:02 AM

Quote from: Kupo & the Two G-strings on November 02, 2016, 10:03:33 AM

>it's good if Clinton wins by technicality
>it was god-awful when Bush won by technicality

Winning the popular vote, but not the electoral college (Or vice versa) isn't really a technicality.

That would be "Well, these 600 ballots had Gore's name misspelled, so he can't claim them to win"

The electoral college shouldn't exist.

I think we can all agree on that. But it won't be unless we have another election like 200 where one won the popular vote but lost electoral college.

Hes going to Virgina

No

Hes going to win wisconsin, Virgina

Based on?