Trump: 42%, Clinton: 40%

 
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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

Quote
The presidential race has grown a bit tighter in this week’s White House Watch survey.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Donald Trump with 42% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton earns 40%. Thirteen percent (13%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This survey was taken Tuesday evening following FBI Director James Comey's announcement that his agency would not seek any indictments of Clinton despite her "extremely careless" handling of classified information while serving as secretary of State. Most voters disagree with Comey’s decision.

Trump pulled ahead of Clinton last week 43% to 39%, his highest level of support in Rasmussen Reports’ matchups with Clinton since last October. Support for Clinton remains below the level of support she received for most of June.

Rasmussen Reports will release new presidential race numbers with Libertarian Gary Johnson in the mix tomorrow morning at 8:30 Eastern.

Trump now earns 73% support among his fellow Republicans and picks up 13% of the Democratic vote. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Democrats like Clinton, as do 11% of GOP voters. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump holds a 20-point lead, but 33% of these voters like some other candidate or are undecided.


 
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It's in line with previous polls by Rasmussen, with Trump holding a 2-5 point lead on Clinton. This doesn't seem to indicate that the FBI's decision directly hurt Clinton's numbers, at least from their polling data.

I don't put much stake into what they poll, at least not this early. Rasmussen has had the problem of under-including minority voters - in 2012, the group estimated 26% of voters would be non-white; that number was actually 28%, which many say boosted Obama in swing states. They also predicted Romney would edge out Obama in the polls (315 to 223), including predicting Romney would win Ohio, Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He lost all of them. 

Meanwhile, Reuters has Clinton up 11 when just versus Trump, and up 9 when including Johnson and Stein. Polling for their data ran from the 2nd to the 6th, so it did include 2 days pre-FBI, 2 days post-FBI (Assuming they didn't run calls on the 4th).

Of course, this is assuming that national polling is more reliable than state polling. Which it isn't.
Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 11:32:38 AM by Icy


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
Listen to Icy, he's smarter than me when it comes to psephology.


 
 
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<.<
The fire rises.


 
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I honestly hope he wins.


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.


 
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You will find out who you are not a thousand times, before you ever discover who you are. I hope you find peace in yourself and learn to love instead of hate.
I honestly hope he wins.
Why?

I despise the idea of Hillary winning.
So you want a terrible person to be elected in spite? Regardless of the ramifications?


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I honestly hope he wins.
Why?

I despise the idea of Hillary winning.
So you want a terrible person to be elected in spite? Regardless of the ramifications?
Can't you read? He said he doesn't want Hillary to win.


 
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So you want a terrible person to be elected in spite? Regardless of the ramifications?

I don't really care. He won't be allowed to do anything drastic anyway.


 
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So you want a terrible person to be elected in spite? Regardless of the ramifications?

I don't really care. He won't be allowed to do anything drastic anyway.

I think you underestimate the power of Congressional Republicans to stop a President from their own party.

They're still reeling from the 2010 elections, in terms of the split in the party. If Trump wants something, he'll likely get it.

Now, whether or not it's his exact plan is a completely seperate issue.
Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 01:16:21 PM by Icy


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If I hear anymore hypocritical rhetoric demonizing literally anyone that doesn't vote the way of the left, I'd gladly vote for the Char clone out of spite. I already want this country to burn, and Trump will get us there faster. If people don't want me voting for him, they're doing themselves no favors and shooting themselves in the foot throwing the same insults at me that they've been doing for the past eight years.

So you want a terrible person to be elected in spite? Regardless of the ramifications?


 
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You will find out who you are not a thousand times, before you ever discover who you are. I hope you find peace in yourself and learn to love instead of hate.
I already want this country to burn, and Trump will get us there faster.

So you want a terrible person to be elected in spite? Regardless of the ramifications?
Sarcasm? I mean I don't know why you're making this about right and left, no where in my post did I at all mention identity politics I was just referring to Trump as a terrible candidate.


 
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If I hear anymore hypocritical rhetoric demonizing literally anyone that doesn't vote the way of the left, I'd gladly vote for the Char clone out of spite. I already want this country to burn, and Trump will get us there faster. If people don't want me voting for him, they're doing themselves no favors and shooting themselves in the foot throwing the same insults at me that they've been doing for the past eight years.

So you want a terrible person to be elected in spite? Regardless of the ramifications?

If you seriously base your vote on what supporters of a candidate say, you aren't someone who is really informed.


 
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People who vote out of spite just shouldn't be allowed to vote. I don't care who you support.


Ian | Mythic Inconceivable!
 
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If you seriously base your vote on what supporters of a candidate say, you aren't someone who is really informed.

Both candidates are equally terrible in my eyes. There is no "Lesser shit" for me on the choices I've been given. With that being said, with both options fucking me over in the same manner, what do I have left to go by on my choice between the two than what their voter base spews out? I did not say I'm guaranteed to go vote for him out of spite now, I'm still writing in Rand Paul.

But every attack that demonizes me for not voting a certain way drives me much closer to saying "Fuck it! You want me to be a racist bigot so bad? Fine, you got it!" In the end who really lost? I didn't lose anything, but those enlightened individuals didn't win over anyone or increase their chances.

Quote
People who vote out of spite just shouldn't be allowed to vote. I don't care who you support.

Probably because you know they're guaranteed to vote against you almost every time.
Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 07:43:21 PM by Ian


 
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With that being said, with both options fucking me over in the same manner, what do I have left to go by on my choice between the two than what their voter base spews out?

The individual candidates various policies, no matter how shitty they are? Voting third party? A coin toss?

Not just you, but basing your vote on grassroots supporters (And more precisely, internet supporters, is incredibly uninformed and quite frankly, stupid. Especially when 99.99% of those supporters would have no say in or how said administration is run.

But every attack that demonizes me for not voting a certain way drives me much closer to saying "Fuck it! You want me to be a racist bigot so bad? Fine, you got it!" In the end who really lost?

Minority groups? You effectively said you would punish them through voting in a racist bigot, because mean people on the internet hurt your feelings.
Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 09:16:36 PM by Icy


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>Giving any sort of a shit about poll numbers

You know who else was predicted to win by polls? Bernie Sanders.


 
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You know who else was predicted to win by polls? Bernie Sanders.

Not really.

From that very long, exhaustive list of polls - Sanders only was ahead in 5.
Last Edit: July 07, 2016, 09:46:44 PM by Icy


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You know who else was predicted to win by polls? Bernie Sanders.

Not really.

From that very long, exhaustive list of polls - Sanders only was ahead in 5.
Eh, fair enough

My point is that using polls to say a certain candidate is gonna win is dumb and annoying. You can pick through polls to find ones that show your guy winning in either case, and even Brexit was predicted to stay by a lot of highly reputable polls, so it's just...I dunno, it's not news.


 
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You know who else was predicted to win by polls? (((Bernie Sanders))).

Not really.

From that very long, exhaustive list of polls - Sanders only was ahead in 5.
Eh, fair enough

My point is that using polls to say a certain candidate is gonna win is dumb and annoying. You can pick through polls to find ones that show your guy winning in either case, and even Brexit was predicted to stay by a lot of highly reputable polls, so it's just...I dunno, it's not news.
Sanders didn't have the Meme Magic with him.
Brexit did.
and Trumps does.


 
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You know who else was predicted to win by polls? Bernie Sanders.

Not really.

From that very long, exhaustive list of polls - Sanders only was ahead in 5.
Eh, fair enough

My point is that using polls to say a certain candidate is gonna win is dumb and annoying. You can pick through polls to find ones that show your guy winning in either case, and even Brexit was predicted to stay by a lot of highly reputable polls, so it's just...I dunno, it's not news.

Polling can be somewhat reliable, if done and studied right.

For example - With Meta's original poll, the group running the poll and collecting data has been accused (With good reason) of underscoring minority support and leaning toward the Republican candidates. So while they may be decent when averaged out with polls of similar sizes, they aren't worth much standalone. Other polls, including Quinnipac and the PPP, are widely seen as more accurate and neutral.

On top of that, national polling is seen as a poor option because we don't vote as a nation - each state gets it's own say, and the people in Florida are going to have vastly different opinions than the people of Montana do in terms of priorities and desires from a candidate. It's why in battleground states, it's particularly important to focus on state polling, which includes likely voters in that state alone. 


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People who vote out of spite just shouldn't be allowed to vote. I don't care who you support.
it's funny because prehistoric literally isn't allowed to vote

He's not even American


 
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We have so many months to go until it happens and so much will change as we do.

These polls mean nothing.


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Comey probably destroyed the cunt's chances.


 
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Comey probably destroyed the cunt's chances.

Not showing in the first polls to come out post-press conference.


 
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Quote
People who vote out of spite just shouldn't be allowed to vote. I don't care who you support.
Probably because you know they're guaranteed to vote against you almost every time.
"People who think differently from me shouldn't be allowed to vote"

VoteRemain.jpg


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If Clinton picked Sanders as her VP would that be an automatic win for her? 


 
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If Clinton picked Sanders as her VP would that be an automatic win for her?

No.

Do I need to elaborate?