The free market has hit a wall

 
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Noah Smith

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I recently wrote a Bloomberg View post about political-economic ideologies, and how society is quicker to change than individual human beings. The upshot was that free-market ideology seems - to many Americans, and also incidentally to me - to have mostly hit a wall in terms of its ability to improve our lives, and so society will inevitably embrace an alternative, despite the protests of diehard free-marketers.

Bryan Caplan is flabbergasted at the notion that free-market ideology (aka "neoliberalism") has actually been tried in the U.S.:
The claim that "free-market dogma" is the "reigning economic policy" of the United States or any major country seems so absurd, so contrary to big blatant facts (like government spending as a share of GDP, for starters), that I'm dumb-founded. 
This is pretty much exactly the attitude I described in my post! "Of course neoliberalism hasn't failed; we just never really tried it."

David Henderson has a longer and more measured response. He challenges the idea that free-market ideology has demonstrated any failures at all.

Now I could simply make a weak claim - i.e., that free-market ideology seems to have hit a wall, and that in the end, that general perception is much more important than what I personally think. But instead, I'll make the much stronger claim - I'll defend the idea that free-market ideology has, in fact, really hit a wall in terms of its effectiveness.

Exhibit A: Tax cuts. Tax cuts, one of free-marketers' flagship policies, appear to have given our economy a boost in the 1960s, and a smaller boost in the 1980s. But any economic boost from the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 was so small as to be invisible to all but (possibly) the most careful econometricians. Notably, a number of attempts to encourage savings - capital gains tax cuts, estate tax cuts, and the like - have not halted the steady decline in personal savings rates.

Exhibit B: Financial deregulation and light-touch regulation. It seems clear to me that under-regulation of derivatives markets and mortgage lending played a big role in the financial crisis. The counter-narrative, that government intervention caused the crisis, has never held much water, and has been debunked by many papers. This was a private-sector blowup.

Exhibit C: Light-touch regulation of monopoly. The evidence is mounting that industrial concentration is an increasing problem for the U.S. economy. Some of this might be due to intellectual property, but much is simply due to naturally increasing returns to scale.

Exhibit D: The China shock. While most trade booms seem to lead to widely shared gains, the China trade boom in the 2000s - which free marketers consistently championed and hailed - probably did not. High transaction costs (retraining costs, moving costs, and others) lead to a very large number of American workers being deeply and permanently hurt by the shock, as evidenced by recent work by Autor, Dorn, and Hanson.

Exhibit E: Faux-privatization. True privatization is when the government halts a nationalized industry and auctions off its assets. Faux-privatization is when the government outsources an activity to contractors, often without even competitive bidding. Faux-privatization has been a notable bust in the prison industry, and school voucher programs have also been extremely underwhelming. Charter schools have fared a bit better, but even there the gains have been modest at best.

Exhibit F: Welfare reform. Clinton's welfare reform saved the taxpayer very little money, and appears to have had little if any effect on poverty in the U.S.

Exhibit G: Research funding cuts. The impact of these is hard to measure, but cuts in government funding of research appear to have saved the taxpayer very little money, while dramatically increasing the time that scientists have to devote to writing grant proposals, and increasing risk aversion in scientists' choice of research topics.

Exhibit H: Health care. The U.S. health care system is a hybrid private-public system, but includes a proportionally much larger private component than any other developed nation's system. Free-marketers have fought doggedly to prevent the government from playing a larger role. Our hybrid system delivers basically the same results as every other developed country's system, at about twice the cost. Private health care cost growth has been much faster than cost growth for Medicare and other government-provided programs, indicating that much of our excess cost has been due to the private component of our system, not the public part.

I could go on, but these are the big ones I can think of. In some of these cases, free-market policies seem to have produced some gains in the late 20th century, but by the 21st century all appeared to be either having no effect, or actively harming the economy.

No, this is nowhere near as big a failure as that of communism (though in some ways, notably health care and financial deregulation, we've done worse than the somewhat-socialist nations of Europe). The analogy with communism was a way of illustrating a certain mindset, not to draw an equivalence between the results of neoliberalism and communism.

Also, I personally think there is still scope for many neoliberal policies to improve our economy. Reduced occupational licensing, urban land-use deregulation, simplification of the tax code, and various other kinds of deregulation all seem to show promise. If free-market policies have hit a wall, it's a porous wall - in real life, nothing is as cut-and-dry as in our ideological debates.

But overall, I think the last decade and a half have shown clearly diminishing returns, and sometimes negative returns, from neoliberal reforms. So our society is right to be looking for alternative policy packages. Though that doesn't necessarily mean we'll choose a good alternative - I think Sanders-style socialism would probably be a mistake.


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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
What a time to be into law. Regulatory expansion, here I come.
I once was talking to two of my friends who do law. The one said that lawyers will always be around because "we've built caveats and loopholes into the legal system so as to make ourselves permanently necessary".

Fuck lawyers.


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Is there a leading alternative that isn't just another form of partial capitalism seen in most countries?


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
Is there a leading alternative that isn't just another form of partial capitalism seen in most countries?
Nope.

The argument is more than policy tweaks and directional changes are appropriate given the changing nature of developed economies, rather than some systemic change. I'd be surprised if the author was even advocating a change away from a liberal market to a co-ordinated market.


 
 
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A wall, you say?
Spoiler


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A wall, you say?
Spoiler
Fuck you guys this is oc


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Is there a leading alternative that isn't just another form of partial capitalism seen in most countries?
Nope.

The argument is more than policy tweaks and directional changes are appropriate given the changing nature of developed economies, rather than some systemic change. I'd be surprised if the author was even advocating a change away from a liberal market to a co-ordinated market.

This seems like a common sense answer. What're your thoughts on the popular liberal idea that communism is the eventual (and soon) state the economy will reach post-capitalism? I've always regarded it as an unfounded excuse for opponents of capitalism to gracefully accept that communism is a failed experiment.


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
What're your thoughts on the popular liberal idea that communism is the eventual (and soon) state the economy will reach post-capitalism?
I think it's basically true (though not near). If we survive long enough, at some point we'll develop a production method that abolishes scarcity.


 
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Wouldn't socialism be the more logical outcome?


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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
Wouldn't socialism be the more logical outcome?
Uh. . . On what basis?

How do you go from "Common aspects of free-market thought don't work as well" to "socialise everything"?


 
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Wouldn't socialism be the more logical outcome?
Why would public ownership of the means of production help? Liberal markets hitting a wall doesn't mean democratic bureaucracies will suddenly stop sucking dick.
But if Communism comes around, those democratic bureaucracies would cease to exist. At least that's how it's always happened because Communism is an anarchistic thing.


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Isn't communism a leftist ideology since you mentioned leftist. I'm not insanely knowledgable in this field. But yes, Communism was never appealing because once you get past the "everyone is equal" bit, you realize how flawed it is in so many aspects.

Also, so if the free market falls, what happens then? If communism happens like I read above, or something like it, then idk. I figured socialism would be the one to take hold. It seems capitalist socialism is working pretty well for some European states, but free market = capitalism.


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What would you call them then? They have socialist policies. Just because it's not going by the textbook definition, doesn't mean it's not some form of it

ex. Communism


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
capitalist socialism
Oxymoron.

The Nordic model of capitalism, or a co-ordinated market, is not socialism.

But, to address your other point, there's no real reason to think it could or should be introduced properly to the US or the UK:

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Because of their more limited inequality and more comprehensive social welfare systems, many perceive average welfare to be higher in Scandinavian societies than in the United States. Why then does the United States not adopt Scandinavian-style institutions? More generally, in an interdependent world, would we expect all countries to adopt the same institutions? To provide theoretical answers to this question, we develop a simple model of economic growth in a world in which all countries benefit and potentially contribute to advances in the world technology frontier. A greater gap of incomes between successful and unsuccessful entrepreneurs (thus greater inequality) increases entrepreneurial effort and hence a country's contribution to the world technology frontier. We show that, under plausible assumptions, the world equilibrium is asymmetric: some countries will opt for a type of "cutthroat capitalism" that generates greater inequality and more innovation and will become the technology leaders, while others will free- ride on the cutthroat incentives of the leaders and choose a more "cuddly" form of capitalism. Paradoxically, those with cuddly reward structures, though poorer, may have higher welfare than cutthroat capitalists; but in the world equilibrium, it is not a best response for the cutthroat capitalists to switch to a more cuddly form of capitalism. We also show that domestic constraints from social democratic parties or unions may be beneficial for a country because they prevent cutthroat capitalism domestically, instead inducing other countries to play this role.


 
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
They have socialist policies.
So does America then, since they have police, national highways, the most progressive income tax in the world and the highest corporation tax rates in the developed world.

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Just because it's not going by the textbook definition, doesn't mean it's not some form of it
Except it does. Northern European and the German economies are still defined by the interactions and transactions of private individuals and companies. The means of production are privately owned.

Having a generous welfare system doesn't make you socialist.


 
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I know the US has some socialist policies. Medicade and Medicare are one of them, which is why I find it so funny a lot of far right Republicans freak out at the very things they support.

Thanks for the info on the other stuff.


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Wouldn't socialism be the more logical outcome?
Why would public ownership of the means of production help? Liberal markets hitting a wall doesn't mean democratic bureaucracies will suddenly stop sucking dick.
But if Communism comes around, those democratic bureaucracies would cease to exist. At least that's how it's always happened because Communism is an anarchistic thing.
Communism and democracy are not mutually explicit.