Announcement Expected within the Next Week

Indeed, Pence has been going through the motions of a potential running mate. He and his wife met with Trump earlier this month at the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, N.J., where the two men also played a round of golf.

“Spent time with Indiana Governor Mike Pence and family yesterday,” Trump tweeted afterward. “Very impressed, great people!”

Trump is expected to announce his decision this week, with the national convention set to commence Monday in Cleveland. Pence, meanwhile, faces a Friday deadline to withdraw from the Indiana ballot seeking re-election.

Still, an element of suspense remains. Trump has said he values unpredictability, and his VP preferences have seemed to shift on almost a daily basis. Still, a short list has emerged; Gingrich and Flynn have been in the conversation since early May.

But Gingrich and Pence have appeared to crystallize in recent days as the strongest potential candidates, judging by remarks made by Trump’s aides or the candidate himself. Christie does not have Washington political experience, one Trump ally noted; and, if Trump were to select a governor as his running mate, Pence’s record in Indiana would be easier to defend.

Although Gingrich or Christie might be a more ferocious attack dog than Pence, Trump has already assumed this role himself, perhaps opening the door for a more low-key running mate.

Pence, of course, has his own potential pitfalls, including the national backlash he incurred last year over a law that would have allowed Indiana businesses to deny services to gay and lesbian couples. He later changed the law in response to the outcry.

Trump’s campaign has been assessing these pros and cons during a formal vetting process, for which Pence has reportedly submitted documents.

Still, as the chatter about Pence has grown louder, he has nevertheless continued to run his own campaign for re-election. He stopped by the Bartholomew County 4-H Fair on Monday, where he toured barns filled with cattle and swine, according to local reports.

But Indiana Republicans are preparing for Pence to take on another campaign.

Said Seat, “Everyone here is operating as if this is happening.”

Thoughts?

Quote from: Faliz on July 13, 2016, 03:52:58 AM

No chance in hell Trump wins any swing states.  I live in Georgia, so I'm not voting because it doesn't matter, but also both candidates are shit.  That said, if I was in a swing state I'd be inclined to vote Hilary just to not see the orange in office.

I'll bet my house he wins 3 out of 4 of Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Based on?

My guess is Pence.

Christie is too dis-likeable.

Pence isn't exactly the most liked Republican either - after the whole religious freedom law last year, his approval ratings never really improved to what they once were, though they have stagnated in the upper 40's. He's also faced criticism from members of his own party in-state, for his desires to create a state run news organization, his handling off the religious freedom law, and a couple of other issues.

Sure, he's a ton better than Gingrich. But people saying Pence would deliver Trump easy wins in the mid-west are a bit over their heads.

Quote from: Icy on July 13, 2016, 02:07:06 PM

Quote from: PSU on July 13, 2016, 01:25:53 PM

Quote from: Faliz on July 13, 2016, 03:52:58 AM

No chance in hell Trump wins any swing states.  I live in Georgia, so I'm not voting because it doesn't matter, but also both candidates are shit.  That said, if I was in a swing state I'd be inclined to vote Hilary just to not see the orange in office.

I'll bet my house he wins 3 out of 4 of Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Based on?

Quinnipiac University swing state polls.

I swear to god, if I have to say this one more time I'm going to make a stickied thread.

Polling, particularly by individual organizations and schools, done this early is unreliable. Doesn't matter if it's supporting Clinton or Trump, this is the fact.

We've yet to reach the conventions, no ticket has announced their VP, and we're still four months out. Most in-state polls are within 1-3 points for either candidate, and fluctuate quickly between organizations. This is why it's best to use groups like RealClearPolitics or 538, who factor in polls from multiple organizations.

If you want proof of that fluctuation, let's take a look at RCP right now:

Florida: Quinnipiac is the only poll, Trump +3
Ohio: NBC/Marist and Quinnipiac have a tie
Pennsylvania: NBC has Clinton +9, Quinnipiac has Trump +2
Iowa: NBC has Clinton +3, Monmouth has Trump +2

It's also important to factor in whether or not the polls are including just Clinton and Trump, or if Johnson and Stein are included. That does impact the numbers - currently giving Trump a slight edge as well in Pennsylvania and Florida, while Clinton gets a 3 point bump in Ohio.

Dates are also important - these polls were all done before and after the FBI investigation, and before Sanders support of Clinton. Because of this, it's difficult to say whether or not these had impacts on polling.

Once we hit the first week of August (often seen as the official start of the General Election), polling will become more crucial. The party tickets will be finalized and many of the summer and primary events will have officially passed.