Tension in the South China Sea

 
More Than Mortal
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This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang but a whimper.
It's becoming increasingly clear that China has staked its reputation on success in the South China Sea, and accordingly has adopted a more aggressive and cocksure stance. Diplomacy will not end Chinese aggression, only a clear message from the US.

There has been some hope as the Pentagon has apparently been considering more hardline tactics to use against Chinese expansionism in the region, however it seems that the situation is worse than was first thought; the Chinese warned off an American surveillance place at least eight times with the message: "Foreign military aircraft. This is Chinese navy. You are approaching our military alert zone. Leave immediately."

Why is this important? Well it's unclear whether or not the aeroplane was actually within the 12 nautical miles of the artificial islands which China considers sovereign territory. If this zone is the same as what the Chinese referred to as the "military alert zone", then it appears that Chinese reassurances over continued navigational freedom are untrue, as they tried to command the US plane while it was in a non-territorial space.

There is speculation about whether or not the Chinese will establish an ADIZ over the South China Sea as they did with the East China Sea in 2013; that's besides the point, however, as the Chinese have been challenging American operation within that airspace since 2001, as well as more recently threatening the Philippines.

It's no secret that China has been building it up its military with the goal in mind of establishing a regional hegemony, much akin to the actions of Iran, and the artificial islands being constructed in the Sea are being outfitted with runways.

The Chinese seem to view geopolitics with a vertical structure of power, where the biggest dogs get the biggest piece of meat. Technically, China has no right to expand its sovereign territory in the way that they have--but they don't seem to care. China has a growing arsenal and collection of military equipment, seemingly tailored to American weaknesses, and will have 40,000 stealth UAVs by 2023; three versions of which will have precision strike capabilities.

The Americans need to pick up the slack and move towards the 12-mile zone which the Chinese have claimed as sovereign territory; it isn't a nice choice, since doing so will increase tensions and not doing so would only legitimise the burgeoning Chinese hegemony. Meanwhile, the government continues to sit back and dismantle US military capacity. 


 
Sandtrap
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Suppossedly, if the US cut even roughly 70% of their military budget they'd still have the largest military budget and arsenal in the world. That and the fact, like we talked about. The US and China are dependant on one another, one for growth, and one for continued commodities.

This doesn't come as a surprise, frankly. If you look at Chinese culture, and history, you'll see that they're different people. Very proud, very serious. They don't fuck around.

I think a full blown war won't come out of this. If anything, I'd put some money on tense standoffs. Maybe even skirmishes.

But if either country went at each other they'd be stupid. They'd essentially pull each other down.

Nothing will come of this.