A services led economy vs automation

MyNameIsCharlie · November 19, 2015, 10:46:40 AM

I was talking with my boss about how eventually the sales division in my company will be replaced with a website that could do everything a sales rep does. He agreed that the day is coming when all but the elite few would be let go and our customers would just go online and shop for what they want.

This spurred a new line of thought: a service led economy is contingent on people providing an actual service for someone else. Americans don't really make anything anymore. Even the "safe" STEM jobs are being offshored. You could hire a code-house in India to write the code for your plant in China to sell your products in the US.

But where does this put the American worker? Where do we make our money now? We don't make the product, we don't even design it anymore, and now we don't sell it. Money has to be generated somewhere, where is the US's money being created?

cxfhvxgkcf-56:7 · November 19, 2015, 10:50:12 AM

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BaconShelf · November 19, 2015, 10:57:16 AM

Creative industries like graphics design. That's not something you can automate.

cxfhvxgkcf-56:7 · November 19, 2015, 10:59:18 AM

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MyNameIsCharlie · November 19, 2015, 11:01:52 AM

Quote from: Bacon on November 19, 2015, 10:57:16 AM

Creative industries like graphics design. That's not something you can automate.

My old company offshored that to Singapore. They charged 10% of what an American would and produced the same quality

BaconShelf · November 19, 2015, 11:03:00 AM

Quote from: ObamaLover69 on November 19, 2015, 10:59:18 AM

Quote from: Bacon on November 19, 2015, 10:57:16 AM
Creative industries like graphics design. That's not something you can automate.
Uh didn't you see that "AI" Google made a few months back that can make art?

Like every other supposed AI that gets announced every other month?

I have a hard time believing whenever a machine is announced to have true intelligence. Don't get me wrong, I know we're getting closer all the time but I have a hard time believing we will make it now or within the next few years.

cxfhvxgkcf-56:7 · November 19, 2015, 11:03:39 AM

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BaconShelf · November 19, 2015, 11:04:11 AM

Quote from: MyNameIsCharlie on November 19, 2015, 11:01:52 AM

Quote from: Bacon on November 19, 2015, 10:57:16 AM
Creative industries like graphics design. That's not something you can automate.

My old company offshored that to Singapore. They charged 10% of what an American would and produced the same quality

Well then by that logic, you may as well just give up now because chinese men will take over literally everything.

Mr. Psychologist · November 19, 2015, 11:04:17 AM

>tfw psychologist was 360th out of 365 jobs at risk of automation

Looks like someone has to keep the meatbags functioning even when the robots start to run the world e.e

A little sidetracked but I'm just killing time until meta posts ITT

Risay117 · November 19, 2015, 11:05:27 AM

New jobs will be created. What they are I have no clue but will the current generstion be equipped to take advantage of it. Likely not.

But another opportunity exisrs and that is the decrease in cost to start a business. Why spend cash and time to get something from overseas when you can cut the time inhalf and although pay the same amount or less and have built in the same city. 3D printing is what I had in mind.

Something I notice and it will be more prevalent I feel is that business shall be made with people who others trust. Like the construction where subcontractors are ruled out from bids due to previouse bad memories. And other subcontractors are preferred due to good experiences.

cxfhvxgkcf-56:7 · November 19, 2015, 11:06:43 AM

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cxfhvxgkcf-56:7 · November 19, 2015, 11:07:46 AM

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Risay117 · November 19, 2015, 11:10:23 AM

Another question that can be posed is whether humans shall try to accelerate evolution so as to not be rendered insignificant. Humans love control and there lilelyy be a push tk create hybrids. First on militaristic levels, then in the sports arena and whem more accpeted in the general populace.

This then leads to the fear that was noted in the begnnig of Dune where people become slaves to their machine parts and can become easily manipulated. This could lead to a push in advancement in humans on the biological and mental front.

Sandtrap · November 19, 2015, 11:22:35 AM

Last time I checked, they haven't built a robot or automated machine to take out the garbage. Or work in a sewer. Or do lumber work. Or work an oil rig.

Basically, eventually we're gonna hit a bit of a gap in class again. Low teir shit jobs remain, top tier jobs for the elite folks who run the show, no room in the middle.

As automation goes up the economy is going to take a fucking beating as the population of people with nothing to do and no way to earn money rises.

BaconShelf · November 19, 2015, 11:24:07 AM

Quote from: ObamaLover69 on November 19, 2015, 11:03:39 AM

Quote from: Bacon on November 19, 2015, 11:03:00 AM
Quote from: ObamaLover69 on November 19, 2015, 10:59:18 AM
Quote from: Bacon on November 19, 2015, 10:57:16 AM
Creative industries like graphics design. That's not something you can automate.
Uh didn't you see that "AI" Google made a few months back that can make art?

Like every other supposed AI that gets announced every other month?

I have a hard time believing whenever a machine is announced to have true intelligence. Don't get me wrong, I know we're getting closer all the time but I have a hard time believing we will make it now or within the next few years.
Hence why I put it in quotes

Of course it's not a true intelligence doesn't take away from the fact that it was making art.

I want to know in what capacity it was doing art. Like, complex image manipulation on photoshop vs. using a paintbrush tool is a big difference.

Turkey · November 19, 2015, 11:25:07 AM

Anytime we see automation occur, new jobs open up elsewhere; having a surplus of available workers is never a bad thing for an economy, and the market wants to utilize them.

In regards to your sales department, sure customers might prefer to buy from your website but sales representatives offer a service that clients value -- that is, a relationship between supplier and client, requiring social skills which are increasingly difficult for computers to replicate.

And really, outsourcing also provides a trickle down effect (though I hesitate to use the phrase). As more skilled labor gets outsourced, you logically see more skilled workers in that country, etc.

This month's NBER digest has a decent article about it:

http://m.nber.org/digest/nov15/w21473.html

Ridiculous Tales · November 19, 2015, 11:41:03 AM

That's a pretty good question. What will happen to the world economy when everything is eventually replaced by automatons? What will happen to not only our economy but also what will happen to economies that are completely reliant on manufacturing such as China's? Because I heard that a lot of manufacturers are returning to the US from China simply because it's becoming cheaper to automate manufacturing jobs with robotic arms/cranes apparently.

Septy · November 19, 2015, 12:18:46 PM

Well someone's gotta keep those robots in good condition!

More Than Mortal · November 19, 2015, 12:19:10 PM

Quote from: MyNameIsCharlie on November 19, 2015, 10:46:40 AM

He agreed that the day is coming when all but the elite few would be let go and our customers would just go online and shop for what they want.

He's wrong. The only concerns coming out of increased automation are inequality, not structural unemployment. It just cannot happen.

Risay117 · November 19, 2015, 12:25:33 PM

Quote from: Meta as Fuck on November 19, 2015, 12:19:10 PM

Quote from: MyNameIsCharlie on November 19, 2015, 10:46:40 AM
He agreed that the day is coming when all but the elite few would be let go and our customers would just go online and shop for what they want.
He's wrong. The only concerns coming out of increased automation, not structural unemployment. It just cannot happen.

Why does no one understand this. I understand if people will lose employment because their kobs arennow automated but new jobs will come and people will have to tweak their skillsets to adapt to the new job environment.

It is basocally the luthereans again. Just because you may lose your jpb does not mean another job is not available.

Though I would have to ask you Meta what about the focus that businesses may become more prevalent due to the decrease in capital requirement to start up a business.

With 3D printing allowing a more local manufacturing and other specializations like social and human based business coming to the forefront especially with changes in the social environment.

More Than Mortal · November 19, 2015, 12:44:12 PM

Quote from: Risay117 on November 19, 2015, 12:25:33 PM

Though I would have to ask you Meta what about the focus that businesses may become more prevalent due to the decrease in capital requirement to start up a business.

A less capital-intensive economy could see lower real growth rates, but also the added benefit of increased competition. Hard to say, I haven't studied that part of the economy much; although corporate governance is interesting.

Risay117 · November 19, 2015, 12:46:15 PM

Quote from: Meta as Fuck on November 19, 2015, 12:44:12 PM

Quote from: Risay117 on November 19, 2015, 12:25:33 PM
Though I would have to ask you Meta what about the focus that businesses may become more prevalent due to the decrease in capital requirement to start up a business.
A less capital-intensive economy could see lower real growth rates, but also the added benefit of increased competition. Hard to say, I haven't studied that part of the economy much; although corporate governance is interesting.

Corporate governance as in Caldaei Race in Eve online.

The state is run by a number of corporations who compete against each other and have their own security and governance.

Funnily enough South Korea can be a test case for such a system.

Actually Singapore is a great example of a corporate country as well as some of the gulf states.

MyNameIsCharlie · November 19, 2015, 12:55:00 PM

Quote from: Meta as Fuck on November 19, 2015, 12:19:10 PM

Quote from: MyNameIsCharlie on November 19, 2015, 10:46:40 AM
He agreed that the day is coming when all but the elite few would be let go and our customers would just go online and shop for what they want.
He's wrong. The only concerns coming out of increased automation are inequality, not structural unemployment. It just cannot happen.

We were talking about our company specifically, which has happened in several marketplaces.

ban me · November 20, 2015, 10:43:10 AM

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