GOP Candidate Analysis (Updated)

Alternative Facts · January 15, 2016, 02:08:39 PM

With just under three weeks until the Iowa Caucuses kick off the primary season, thought it would be a bit interesting to run down the list of 12 remaining GOP candidates and see where they currently stand in terms of Iowa, New Hampshire, and overall standing in the race for the nomination, along wth potential impact going into the future.

Going to start at the bottom and work my way up the list of candidates. Each analysis will be in a spoiler so you all can just pick and choose who you read about, if you'd like.

Jim Gilmore

Former governor of Virginia, not that it makes any difference because Gilmore's impact in the 2016 race is the equivalent to a drop of water in the ocean. He does not register on any polls, he has to yet to appear at any of the debates (Even for the undercard table), and he has received only one endorsement, from a state senator of New Hampshire. Expect to see him quietly drop out sometime in the near future, with zero impact on the race going forward.

Rick Santorum & Mike Huckabee

Lumping these two candidates together, as they are remarkably similar in their campaigns this time around. Rick Santorum, a former United States Senator from Pennsylvania, and Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, are both return candidates. Santorum ran in 2012 and actually put up a moderate challenge to Romney, winning in Iowa and numerous other states - Huckabee, meanwhile, ran back in 2008, when he also won Iowa and was second in total number of delegates received.

This time, however, both campaigns have been lackluster and never truly received traction. Santorum has been relegated to the undercard debate since the beginning, and Huckabee has dwindled there the past two times. Neither man has a shot at winning the nomination, with Huckabee downright announcing that he'll drop out if he's not in the Top 3 of Iowa. As of now, most polls put him in the bottom three. However, both candidates are staunch social conservatives, which may be important down the road - their supporters will look to them as to who to support in a crowded race, with bold conservative options from Cruz to Trump to Rubio. Expect Santorum and Huckabee to have a minor presence going forward, as their endorsements could impact the final outcome of this race.

Carly Fiornina

Oh Carly. Following her showing at the first GOP debate, where she actually did remarkably well for a candidate with zero political experience, Fiornia saw a spike in polling and enjoyed a bump to the main stage debate in September. She was viewed as articulate, intelligent, and a possible beacon of light in a party often dubbed "the old white men's club".

Since then, however, Fiorina has generally been on a downward trend. Comments made about a fake Planned Parenthood video, and subsequent lackluster debate performances have sent Fiorina towards the middle-bottom tier of the polls once again, hovering around 2-3% alongside Kasich and Rand Paul in Iowa. I fully expect Fiorina to be out of the running for the candidacy by Nevada - if she does choose to stay in any longer, it's going to end up downright embarrassing. However, Fiornina's ties to Silicon Valley and her general non-establishment persona could put her in line to play a moderate role in where her supporters finally end up.

John Kasich

Kasich is a late comer to the GOP Primary, announcing his candidacy in late-July, after some of the campaigns had been working donors and the crowds for weeks already. Many predicted such a late entry would hurt any chance he had at the nomination, and generally, Kasich has done quite poorly. Most recent polls show him at 3% in Iowa and nationally with New Hampshire being his one beacon of hope at 14% (Behind Trump and Cruz, ahead of Rubio by 2%).

Chances of Kasich winning the nomination are extremely low, however expect him to play a crucial role in the nomination and general election - Kasich is the current governor of Ohio, which is a crucial state in the general election, and is considered the jewel needed for a candidate to win. Kasich's choice of endorsement will play a role going forward in the campaign season, and no matter the eventual nominee, expect to see him on the stage in his home state, campaigning for him.

Rand Paul

Oh Rand, you started with big dreams and a solid chance to shake the ground of this campaign season...and then Trump showed up.

Since his campaign launch in the spring of last year, Paul has been dogged by low polling numbers and lousy debate performances, due in part to the rise of showy outsider candidates in Carson, Trump, and Fiorina. As early as August, Republican insiders have prodded Paul to drop out of the presidential race to focus on his upcoming reelection bid for the Senate, which many believe could prove consequential for the GOP as they fight to keep control of Congress. Paul, however, has refused to take their advice, leading to his situation now - polling in 7th (or lower) in nearly all major polls, demoted to the undercard debate stage, and watching funding dry up.

I anticipate Rand to drop out quickly following Iowa and New Hampshire, however it is possible that he will follow his father's path and remain in the race as a protest candidate. Whether or not this will hurt his senate campaign is still up for debate

Dr. Ben Carson

In the months and years since Obama's reelection in 2012, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson has made a name for himself in the conservative media for his staunch criticism of the President, denouncing his policies and claiming that he does not represent the needs of the African-American population (For those who don't know, Carson is also black). Hosts and Pundits latched onto Carson - a ethnically different, devoutly religious, far-right Republican? We may have found our guy!

For a while, it looked like Carson may actually stand a chance in this primary - he had solid support from evangelical voters, who are key to winning in Iowa, gave decent debate performances, and saw a surge in polling in the late fall, putting him in a neck and neck race with Trump.

Since then, however, Carson's support has dwindled - controversial statements on issues from gun control to immigration have severed support from him, while Cruz has slowly but surely leeched the evangelicals from Carson in Iowa - leaving him in the middle of the pack. In New Hampshire, he does even worse.

I fully expect to see Carson remain relevant in the conservative media's inner circle, however the chance of him taking his surgical skills to the Oval Office? None.

Chris Christie

The current governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie was once described as a traitor when photographs of him hugging President Obama following Hurricane Sandy were displayed one week ahead of the 2012 election.

Suffice to say, there's no love remaining between the two anymore.

As a candidate, Christie has suffered to break away from the other establishment candidates in Bush, Rubio, and Kasich, and his murky record as the governor of what is, generally, a liberal state doesn't give him any help. To his credit, however, Christie has given remarkably emotional and strong debate performances, which has helped buoy his standing in the New Hampshire polls - one of the few states where he actually has a chance of doing quite well for himself.

Ultimately, Christie has put up a strong run, but at some point, he's going to realize this his luck has run out. He's far from the most popular candidate, and his campaign is unviable moving forwards into more conservative states.

Coming up next: Bush, Cruz, Rubio, Trump

Luciana · January 15, 2016, 09:51:36 PM

Good thread. So quick question. For the Caucuses, does each state get a ballot and vote for who they want to represent the party, and then they win the nomination? I never understood that or how the caucuses work. A short version is okay if you want.

Alternative Facts · January 15, 2016, 09:55:08 PM

Quote from: Luciana on January 15, 2016, 09:51:36 PM

Good thread. So quick question. For the Caucuses, does each state get a ballot and vote for who they want to represent the party, and then they win the nomination? I never understood that or how the caucuses work. A short version is okay if you want.

Caucuses are a much older method of voting for your candidate of choice, and is often more public. Voters gather in a set precinct and, either by raising hands or maybe going to differing corners of the room, show their support for a particular candidate. Unlike a primary or the general election voting, caucuses are a public announcement of your vote.

Quickest and easiest way to explain, I suppose.

Luciana · January 15, 2016, 09:59:59 PM

Quote from: Icy on January 15, 2016, 09:55:08 PM

Quote from: Luciana on January 15, 2016, 09:51:36 PM
Good thread. So quick question. For the Caucuses, does each state get a ballot and vote for who they want to represent the party, and then they win the nomination? I never understood that or how the caucuses work. A short version is okay if you want.

Caucuses are a much older method of voting for your candidate of choice, and is often more public. Voters gather in a set precinct and, either by raising hands or maybe going to differing corners of the room, show their support for a particular candidate. Unlike a primary or the general election voting, caucuses are a public announcement of your vote.

Quickest and easiest way to explain, I suppose.

Ohhh

that sounds hard to tally though. My mother told me it's like representatives in a room who raise their hands when asked for support or something, not just normal people.

Alternative Facts · January 15, 2016, 10:07:17 PM

Quote from: Luciana on January 15, 2016, 09:59:59 PM

Quote from: Icy on January 15, 2016, 09:55:08 PM
Quote from: Luciana on January 15, 2016, 09:51:36 PM
Good thread. So quick question. For the Caucuses, does each state get a ballot and vote for who they want to represent the party, and then they win the nomination? I never understood that or how the caucuses work. A short version is okay if you want.

Caucuses are a much older method of voting for your candidate of choice, and is often more public. Voters gather in a set precinct and, either by raising hands or maybe going to differing corners of the room, show their support for a particular candidate. Unlike a primary or the general election voting, caucuses are a public announcement of your vote.

Quickest and easiest way to explain, I suppose.
Ohhh

that sounds hard to tally though. My mother told me it's like representatives in a room who raise their hands when asked for support or something, not just normal people.

Kind of.

Each precinct in, let's say Iowa, has a designated meeting location - a high school gym. Registered members of the Republican party who are going to be voting meet at the gym at a designated time, where there are representatives from the campaigns there - usually a staffer who's been giving talking points to try and convince last minute undecided voters. The voting takes place, after which each precinct names the candidate that received the most votes.

It's an extremely long and complicated ordeal afterwards, but like I said, this is the most basic definition I can get. This article gets more indepth.

Luciana · January 15, 2016, 10:16:27 PM

Alright

thanks for explaining

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challengerX · January 16, 2016, 03:05:09 PM

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Luciana · January 16, 2016, 04:33:23 PM

Quote from: challengerX on January 16, 2016, 03:05:09 PM

Quote from: Luciana on January 15, 2016, 09:51:36 PM
Good thread. So quick question. For the Caucuses, does each state get a ballot and vote for who they want to represent the party, and then they win the nomination? I never understood that or how the caucuses work. A short version is okay if you want.
HAHA wow

What?

I'm sorry I actually wanted to get educated on the matter.

challengerX · January 16, 2016, 04:55:12 PM

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Luciana · January 16, 2016, 05:20:55 PM

Quote from: challengerX on January 16, 2016, 04:55:12 PM

Quote from: Luciana on January 16, 2016, 04:33:23 PM
Quote from: challengerX on January 16, 2016, 03:05:09 PM
Quote from: Luciana on January 15, 2016, 09:51:36 PM
Good thread. So quick question. For the Caucuses, does each state get a ballot and vote for who they want to represent the party, and then they win the nomination? I never understood that or how the caucuses work. A short version is okay if you want.
HAHA wow
What?

I'm sorry I actually wanted to get educated on the matter.
No it's just funny how a lot of you speak so confidently about things you aren't educated on.

It's not really you specifically, just the post made me think.

Oh >_>

I didn't mean to come off confident. Just tried to tell my understanding and didn't want to burden him if it was some long winded explanation.

Alternative Facts · January 18, 2016, 10:03:59 AM

Updated with Paul, Carson, and Christie.

Anonymous (User Deleted) · January 18, 2016, 10:12:03 AM

Quote from: Icy on January 15, 2016, 02:08:39 PM

Coming up next: Bush, Cruz, Rubio, Trump

icy pls

Alternative Facts · January 18, 2016, 10:16:59 AM

Quote from: Kupoop on January 18, 2016, 10:12:03 AM

Quote from: Icy on January 15, 2016, 02:08:39 PM
Coming up next: Bush, Cruz, Rubio, Trump
icy pls

?

Anonymous (User Deleted) · January 18, 2016, 10:26:17 AM

Quote from: Icy on January 18, 2016, 10:16:59 AM

Quote from: Kupoop on January 18, 2016, 10:12:03 AM
Quote from: Icy on January 15, 2016, 02:08:39 PM
Coming up next: Bush, Cruz, Rubio, Trump
icy pls

?

The candidates I care most about >.>

Word Wizard · January 18, 2016, 10:55:33 AM

You made a typo in the Carson tab.

"while Cruz has slowly but surely leeched the evangelicals from Cruz"

Alternative Facts · January 18, 2016, 11:03:23 AM

Quote from: Sly Instinct on January 18, 2016, 10:55:33 AM

You made a typo in the Carson tab.

"while Cruz has slowly but surely leeched the evangelicals from Cruz"

This is why we have editors.

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Nick McIntyre · January 20, 2016, 01:26:44 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/20/us/politics/donald-trump-sarah-palin.html?_r=0

Watching that endorsement speech was absolutely painful.

Alternative Facts · January 20, 2016, 04:51:51 PM

Quote from: Iberian Husky on January 20, 2016, 01:19:54 PM

Finish it!

These top four candidates are going to be a bit longer, and I'm back at school.

It'll be done soon™

Cindy · January 20, 2016, 04:57:33 PM

Huckabee makes me puke tbh

Only person I'd vote for Trump over

Anonymous (User Deleted) · January 20, 2016, 10:24:56 PM

Quote from: Iberian Husky on January 20, 2016, 01:19:54 PM

Finish it!

ICY PLS

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maverick · January 24, 2016, 12:04:27 AM

GET TO IT

Anonymous (User Deleted) · January 27, 2016, 09:16:01 PM

FINISH IT

Nick McIntyre · January 30, 2016, 07:07:49 PM

Quote from: Poopo No Pico on January 27, 2016, 09:16:01 PM

FINISH IT

SecondClass · January 30, 2016, 10:12:49 PM

If a Republican wins, I want it to be Fiornina.

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Anonymous (User Deleted) · February 07, 2016, 09:18:00 PM

god fucking dammit

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