So this past month has been absolutely horrible for the Syrian Government, and Islamic State has seen a major resurgence.

So for the Syrian Government, they've faced this nightmare of a battle where they've lost several urban areas, and Assad as well as his best general were essentially humiliated, as they both personally promised to relieve a major Syrian Arab Army garrison besieged in a nearby hospital, but that Hospital fell to Rebel forces just today. The SAA garrison fled, but well over half of them didn't make the ~5km journey back to SAA lines. Even worse for the Syrian Government (and far more strategically devastating) was this major offensive from IS. Along with taking a major urban area (~200,000) from the SAA, they took most of the Syrian Government's remaining oil fields, so their capability to deploy and utilize armor and aircraft which were pretty much what was keeping them in the war will be seriously hampered in the near-future. There's a lot more background behind these massive defeats, but I'd rather not write a 30-page essay on it.

tl;dr: Assad dun goofed hardcore and IS is resurgent after 7 months of taking massive losses

Holy shit you're conceding defeat. You'd have never done that in the past

But seriously, I think you're underestimating just how much al Qaeda and its allies have gained in recent months. In fact, you didn't even mention them at all. They now control all of Idlib (nominally right now. Give it time and they will take over whatever the regime has left near the Al Ghab plains), and control significant swaths in Daraa and Quneitra.

But the fact that IS has been able to mount more offensives in Syria is also worrying. The most important of which was taking Tadmur. This essentially shuts the SAA forces in Deir al Zour off from aid from Damascus by land. They could try to fly aid into the airbase at Deir al Zour, but that might be limited with the threat of IS anti air.

So, I think the next major thing to fall to IS in Syria will be Deir al Zour. Which will mean that IS will control all of that province. However, should be noted that Deir al Zour is basically desert but still.

I remember reading a news story a number of months ago about how IS and al-Qaeda could end up rebuilding bridges and forming a sort of alliance. Do you think this is possible? And what implications would it have for us?

Implications for us? The worst possible scenario, dude.

How so? I presume their territory and influence would expand, significantly. How could something like that even be fought?

Quote from: SgtMag1 on May 23, 2015, 02:12:36 PM

Implications for us? The worst possible scenario, dude.

How so? I presume their territory and influence would expand, significantly. How could something like that even be fought?

A reconciliation between the two greatest terrorist organizations in the world does not bode well for anyone. Hell, the competition between the two doesn't bode well for anyone as well. But a reconciliation would be getting the gang back together...

To fight it, it'd have to be fought like any other terrorist group. Military action will have to be used, but also an emphasis on the political, economical, and social dynamics of these things. I don't agree with what the administration has said about how "lack of opportunity" is more a factor into why people join terrorist groups, but poverty does play a role. However, with current Islamic militant groups, the ideology plays more of a role. Which is why working with local religious authorities is incredibly important.

Either way, military action will have to happen. Either from local troops or Western, but the best method would be both. The military action would have to be effective; no occupation, no invasion, no overusage of drones, etc.

Holy shit you're conceding defeat. You'd have never done that in the past

Some things changed and I'm not a regime supporter anymore.

But seriously, I think you're underestimating just how much al Qaeda and its allies have gained in recent months. In fact, you didn't even mention them at all. They now control all of Idlib (nominally right now. Give it time and they will take over whatever the regime has left near the Al Ghab plains), and control significant swaths in Daraa and Quneitra.

Regime still has some outposts in Ariha and al-Ghab plain, but their position is collapsing there. Idlib was always a backwater front for the regime, and losses of Idlib and Jisr ash-Shughur wouldn't have been so devastating for the regime if they didn't pour so many resources into it. They should have abandoned their Idlib salient months ago as it would have freed tons of soldiers and shortened their lines a great deal. But instead of that, they transfer special forces from Tadmur to their front in Idlib which is rapidly falling apart.

But the fact that IS has been able to mount more offensives in Syria is also worrying. The most important of which was taking Tadmur. This essentially shuts the SAA forces in Deir al Zour off from aid from Damascus by land. They could try to fly aid into the airbase at Deir al Zour, but that might be limited with the threat of IS anti air.

This was more of IS taking advantage of the incompetence of SAA command. Though yeah, the SAA will definitely be able to resupply Deir ez-Zor by air. They could still possibly resupply by land, since most of the area between Damascus and Deir ez-Zor is just desert.

So, I think the next major thing to fall to IS in Syria will be Deir al Zour. Which will mean that IS will control all of that province. However, should be noted that Deir al Zour is basically desert but still.

Eh, the Regime has Deir ez-Zor way too fortified. They even have their best Republican Guard brigade stationed there, and that city has proven to be a death trap for IS countless times. The next area that's likely to fall to IS is al-Sha'er gas fields, since its Eastern flank has totally collapsed due to IS's offensive in Tadmur. And after al-Sha'er, T4 airbase would be their next target since that airbase is pretty much what enables any significant air coverage by the SyAAF over Eastern Syria.

Ariha will fall soon. The entire of Idlib will fall to al Qaeda within a matter of months. But don't worry...al Qaeda is supposedly dead. Also, in the past, you used to mock how the rebels couldn't touch Idlib city. Funny how things change.

Not gonna debate that. The fact that the regime is still in Idlib is complete fucking idiocy. They should have abandoned that entire front once Idlib fell. That was pretty much their sole reason for being there. But instead, it's looking like Tiger Forces might get obliterated.

That's possible, but it'll be difficult. The main road between Dimashq and Deir al Zour is now gone for the SAA.

The highway between Tadmur and Deir ez-Zor has been cut off for years. Any land supply they had with Deir ez-Zor was by sending trucks through the desert. Their situation now is the same as what it was then, but with a far longer and more dangerous route. So yeah, possible but more difficult.

I said "major." T4, while significant, would not be as major as the fall of Deir al Zour. And you're right, the best Republican Guard is there, the best Republican Guard commander is there, the defensive perimeter is solid, etc. However, this is based around the conditions they can be resupplied frequently. When that is cut off, or limited, it will become easier over time for the Islamic State to penetrate the defenses and eventually take the rest of the city.

I don't really see IS doing anything major other than that unless they begin to make significant headway in Aleppo.

T4 falling is pretty much a death sentence for SAA garrisons in Deir ez-Zor, Qamishli, and Hasakah. And it cripples the SyAAF because of all the aircraft stored there, and the regime's air supremacy is their sole decisive advantage left over the rebels.

And IS's success in Tadmur was due to a significant extent towards them withdrawing a significant number of soldiers from the Aleppo front, so it's not likely that they'll have any advances there.

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T4 falling is pretty much a death sentence for SAA garrisons in Deir ez-Zor, Qamishli, and Hasakah. And it cripples the SyAAF because of all the aircraft stored there, and the regime's air supremacy is their sole decisive advantage left over the rebels.

Regime would still have Deir al Zour airbase to run sorties in Hasakah, but the regime is better off letting the Kurds take Hasakah. They control most of it anyway.

For what it's worth--even though this airbase is meaningless outside of Aleppo--the regime would still have Kweres airbase. Though, like I said, it's worthless outside of Aleppo. It's primary role now is to launch barrel bombing raids and to keep any sieges at bay. Speaking of which, since IS never released anything from their attempt a few weeks back, I'm assuming it went wrong for them.

But, I concede. The loss of T4 would be major. For the record, though, I don't see this airbase falling easily. But it could go the route of Tabqa.

Kweres airbase as we both know is totally worthless to the regime. It's just a desert fortress now. The airstrip there is just littered with aircraft husks and the base is totally encircled by IS.

With T4, it wouldn't even require IS having to take it. All they'd need to do would be to bring it into artillery range, and then shooting at the base enough to reduce the airbase's capacity to deploy and receive aircraft. And the barrel bombing raids actually do serve a strategic purpose, which is to prevent the opposition from setting up any effective rival administration. I don't think that T4 will be taken any time soon, but all it needs is to stop functioning as its current role is as little as a partial siege. Which is easy, since the SAA only has one village left between Tadmur and T4.

So with the current advance in Idlib, how long do you think until we'll see another Latakia offensive?

I don't think we're too far off from that. Once AQ and Co take Ariha and the rest of the regimes towns, Latakia is the next logical advance.

I'm not sure that the rebels will advance in Latakia. Once Jaysh al-Fateh (what you're referring to as AQ and Co) takes what's left of the Idlib salient, it would make a lot more sense for them to deal with the long-besieged Abu ad-Duhur airbase not too far to the East. And once that happens, cutting off Aleppo's supply route also has far more strategic value than yet another incursion into Latakia. The Rebels already own enough of Latakia to humiliate the Regime, so an offensive there would be fairly useless. While with Aleppo, the regime's garrison there is far too large to resupply only with the airport, and I don't know if the regime has the resources to launch another offensive like the one they had in 2013 to reopen the road through Khanisir. The only downside of the Rebels taking Khanisir and the road to Aleppo is that they'll be put right next to IS, since they're just at the other side.

So yeah, I think we should be looking East rather than West once the Rebels take care of Ariha. The day when Ariha is cleared is coming soon. Rebels have already taken several checkpoints near the city, and the regime has next to nothing in their salient outside of Ariha. I'm predicting that Ariha will definitely be cleared by the end of June, and what's left of the regime down there will be mopped up within another month at most.

The thing with going to the east and mounting an offensive in Aleppo is that it runs the risk of prompting an IS offensive on them (Jaish al Fatah). I don't think they want that.

Plus, with Latakia, there is definitely room to where they could take several cities and towns in northern Latakia. The towns and cities they lost since the spring 2014 offensive. Also, several foreign jihadi groups involved in Jaish al Fatah or in the Battle of Victory coalition are based in Latakia. I would assume that also plays a role.

But I just don't see a large scale offensive in Aleppo, especially given the proximity of Jisr al Shughur to Latakia. But anything is possible. Predicting where the conflict will be in six months from now is difficult, let a lone 3-4 weeks. So who knows.

The comparison between Aleppo and Latakia though is that most of the men around Khanisir are drawn halfway across the country, so their morale is horrible. It's to the extent where many people stationed there have been deserting. While with Latakia, you're going for the Alawite heartland, so the people they'd be facing would defend their land almost fanatically. And not to mention that the strategic implications for cutting off Aleppo would likely justify bringing yourself right up to IS. But then on the other hand, IS has been aching to get with Jaysh al-Fatah for a very long time.

So you're right. In the end, it's just pure speculation. 6 months ago, most people were expecting that the Government would soon encircle the Rebels in Aleppo rather than the other way around. I just think it makes more sense to go towards the East and exploit the horrible morale of troops stations around Khanisir rather than try yet another Latakia offensive that's probably going to be repelled.