Donohue-Levitt Theory

Alternative Facts · October 24, 2016, 04:39:04 PM

I'm tired of election threads, so lets discuss this fun and worthwhile policy theory.

For those who don't know it, click here or read the quote

Quote

1) Five states legalized abortion three years before Roe v. Wade. Crime started falling three years earlier in these states, with property crime (done by younger people) falling before violent crime.

2) After abortion was legalized, the availability of abortions differed dramatically across states. In some states like North Dakota and in parts of the deep South, it was virtually impossible to get an abortion even after Roe v. Wade. If one compares states that had high abortion rates in the mid 1970s to states that had low abortion rates in the mid 1970s, you see the following patterns with crime. For the period from 1973-1988, the two sets of states (high abortion states and low abortion states) have nearly identical crime patterns. Note, that this is a period before the generations exposed to legalized abortion are old enough to do much crime. So this is exactly what the Donohue-Levitt theory predicts. But from the period 1985-1997, when the post Roe cohort is reaching peak crime ages, the high abortion states see a decline in crime of 30% relative to the low abortion states. Our original data ended in 1997. If one updated the study, the results would be similar.)

3) All of the decline in crime from 1985-1997 experienced by high abortion states relative to low abortion states is concentrated among the age groups born after Roe v. Wade. For people born before abortion legalization, there is no difference in the crime patterns for high abortion and low abortion states, just as the Donohue-Levitt theory predicts.

4) When we compare arrest rates of people born in the same state, just before and just after abortion legalization, we once again see the identical pattern of lower arrest rates for those born after legalization than before.

5) The evidence from Canada, Australia, and Romania also support the hypothesis that abortion reduces crime.

6) Studies have shown a reduction in infanticide, teen age drug use, and teen age childbearing consistent with the theory that abortion will reduce other social ills similar to crime.

These six points all support the hypothesis. There is one fact that, without more careful analysis, argues against the Donohue-Levitt story:

7) The homicide rate of young males (especially young Black males) temporarily skyrocketed in the late 1980s, especially in urban centers like Los Angeles, New York City, and Washington, DC, before returning to regular levels soon thereafter. These young males who were hitting their peak crime years were born right around the time abortion was legalized.

DAS B00T x2 · October 24, 2016, 05:10:27 PM

I've said it before and I'll say it 'till I die. Black abortions save lives.

Sαndtrap · October 25, 2016, 04:23:18 AM

It's kind of a no-brainer though. Having kids when you're not in a position to support them well usually makes half-functioning people. What'dya get when you throw a bunch of those together? A mess.

Sαndtrap · October 25, 2016, 04:42:42 AM

It's slightly off topic here but it's got some ties to what we're talking about. There's a lot of crime down in the states. I don't think it's far fetched to say that a portion of the issue is gang culture among certain communities.

I notice a lot of solutions figure they can help fix the issue with education opportunities. Which is more or less one portion of the issue. However, what I've never seen any study or proffessional talk about is money.

Let's look at it from another perspective for a sec.

You grow up in some slum community and you're presented with two pictures of your future. The first being an average joe worker with a shit to average tier job even if you pass through the education system.

And the second is drugs and arms dealing with your gang. Hundreds of thousands of dollars under the table that can't be touched or taken away by the government unless through brute force. I'd be willing to bet that drug/arms dealers make a hell of a lot more money in a year than the average joe working a soul sucking job and struggling to pay the bills.

In a society that's so focused on making money, putting morality aside, there's a clear option that weighs in over the other every time for the vast majority of people living in slumlike communities.