By major war, I'm talking WWIII levels, not the shit that's happening in the ME right now. I mean superpowers going at it.

Personally, I believe that there will be something major by the end of the century, at least. I don't have any evidence or proof, it's just one of those things that you geta feeling about and you don't kow why. But I don't think we, as a species, will be able to last more than a hundred years without major combat.

Posted in serious for obvious reasons.

No. If something like that were to happen, it probably would've happened during the Cold War. Warfare and international conflict is changing to the point where it occupies cyberspace, is focused around espionage and is removed from the need of bayonets or trench shovels.

Our greatest threats will come with our advancements. Whether we will properly respond to techno-socio-economic phenomena like unemployment-causing automation and the development of an artificial general intelligence, as well as things like nuclear terrorism and divergent cultures.

Would you also consider the problems that would arise from water shortages under that as well? Though you have a point about how warfare is to commence. I doubt there would be much fighting, it would likely an invasion of a country, followed by retaliatory nuclear strikes and MAD.

Quote from: Bacon's Shelf on January 17, 2015, 05:33:14 PM

Would you also consider the problems that would arise from water shortages under that as well?

Not especially, I don't think water shortages will be especially consequential. Technology which allows on-the-go sanitation of water, as well as developing desalination capacities, will remedy most of it.

Well that's a fair point. But to counter that, you would then be faced with the problems offered by shortages of minerals and fuel to create and operate such technologies, right? Don't get me wrong, I love modern day tech but I don't believe technology can be the magical saviour of everything forever. In fact, I think overreliance on technology is what will eventually be a part of the problem in the future.

Quote from: Bacon's Shelf on January 17, 2015, 05:36:09 PM

Quote from: Meta Cognition on January 17, 2015, 05:34:52 PM

Quote from: Bacon's Shelf on January 17, 2015, 05:33:14 PM

Would you also consider the problems that would arise from water shortages under that as well?

Not especially, I don't think water shortages will be especially consequential. Technology which allows on-the-go sanitation of water, as well as developing desalination capacities, will remedy most of it.

Well that's a fair point. But to counter that, you would then be faced with the problems offered by shortages of minerals and fuel to create and operate such technologies, right?

Not especially; resource shortages are always overstated. One of the mechanisms of the market is that it replaces gradually more expensive resources or operations with cheaper ones--it did this with silicon and fiber optic during the shortages of copper. And, of course, the development of more sustainable energy sources like solar and nuclear will become more attractive as they get cheaper and oil gets dearer.

Hmm. If we get a successful nuclear fusion power plant operation then work pronto on getting those things powering the entire planet, I do think that a lot of problems would be solved, at least temporarily allowing us to concentrate on other things. But weirdly, I think Fallout actually has a fairly realistic scenario for how I beleiev something will eventually happen, minus power armour and plasma guns.

What if I were to tell you that WWII never happened?

I see what you mean.

I have a feeling if it were to start, it would start from South and North Korea, or Pakistan and India. At this moment though it could start in Ukraine if things go further than a small proxy war.

Both sides of either scenario have nukes/artillery and have high tensions around the border zones, and in the Korea case both sides have a superpower as an ally (though relations with NK and China aren't much above neutral, I gather).

I'd say within the next century, likely. No generation has really seen their whole life through peacetime. Hell, it could start just like the last ones, an assassination of a tense country with allies to back, or the rise of a crazed autocratic state, we already have plenty of those.

Possible. I think war between super powers is largely over, but China is still antagonistic. Our naval presence in Japan is basically trained and designed to take on China if they ever start getting feisty.

Probably not. If we do, it's probably in retaliation for something Russia does.

It's certainly possible but I think we'll be sticking to our proxy wars for the next century.