Britain’s economy will slow down but should not go anywhere close to a recession, according to economists at credit ratings agency Moody’s, while growth in the rest of the world is also “stabilising.”Although markets dived on the referendum result in June, stock prices have recovered and now economists also believe the impact of the vote will be relatively modest, compared with some early fears.The lower pound should support economic growth in the UK, Moody’s said, while the government is expected to loosen the purse strings to shore up GDP.Moody’s economists predict growth of 1.5pc this year and 1.2pc in 2017.“Uncertainty around the future of the economy outside the common market will continue to dampen business investment and consumer spending, as businesses hold back on hiring and making long-term investments, and as consumers postpone large spending decisions,” said senior analyst Madhavi Bokil.“However, the fall in the sterling will mitigate some of the negative effect in the short term by providing a boost to exports. Our baseline growth forecasts also incorporate the assumption that some fiscal loosening and monetary policy accommodation will support the economy, eurozone limiting the slowdown in growth.”Moody’s does not expect a major fall in house prices or a big drop in consumption.The analysts expect only “limited Brexit-related spillovers to the eurozone”, and expect the currency area to grow at almost exactly the same pace as the UK, at 1.5pc this year and 1.3pc in 2017.Renewed optimism in the state of China’s economy and some rebound in commodities prices also point to a stabilisation of the global picture, analysts believe.In part as a result of that Moody’s has increased its GDP forecasts for China to 6.6pc this year and 6.3pc in 2017, and for the other G20 emerging markets to 4.4pc for 2016 and 5pc for 2017.While the analysts believe the economy is stabilising after the turmoil which immediately followed the referendum, they do not predict a boom for the global economy.Ms Bokil believes there is a “nexus of low trade growth, low investment and slow productivity gains [which will] dampen potential growth rates globally.”“A concerning aspect of this current environment is that the lack of fiscal buffers, combined with the limited scope for effective monetary accommodation, has reduced the ability of authorities in many economies to support economic activity in the event of future systemic and idiosyncratic shocks,” she said, referring to the fact that governments have little room to borrow and spend more, and central banks have already cut interest rates a long way.There are risks, however, which could still derail this forecast.Further hikes in US interest rates would be a sign of confidence in the US, but could also trash valuations of assets such as shares, bonds and currencies across the world, Moody’s fears.Emerging markets could see a major outflow of cash back to the US in such an eventuality, harming companies and governments which have borrowed in US dollars and suddenly find their domestic currencies are relatively less valuable.Further disintegration of the EU could also spook markets, while the US presidential election also poses threats.“The political and geopolitical risks of a rise in nationalist and protectionist pressures,” said Moody’s.“The most immediate risk in this context is an outcome in the upcoming US presidential elections that ushers in an administration that would renegotiate global trade pacts and security alliances.”Moody's did not explicitly refer to Donald Trump's candidacy, but financial markets are increasingly nervous about the prospect of a major shakeup of US policies should he win the Presidency.
British households have recovered from a loss of confidence about their finances after the country voted to leave the European Union, a survey showed on Wednesday, another sign consumers are taking the referendum result in their stride.Financial data firm Markit said its Household Finance Index for August reversed July's plunge and edged above its level in June at 44.9, its highest reading in four months."Concerns seem to have eased in line with the removal of some of the immediate political uncertainty arising from the shock referendum result, combined with a strong monetary policy response from the Bank of England," Markit senior economist Jack Kennedy said in a statement.Concern about job security eased in August after reaching its highest level in three years in July, although income from employment was the weakest in three months, the survey showed.The online survey of about 1,500 people was conducted by polling firm Ipsos MORI between Aug 8-12, after the Bank of England cut interest rates to 0.25 percent and announced other measures to cushion Britain's economy from the Brexit shock.Economists are waiting for official retail sales data on Thursday to get a sense of whether spending by British consumers will help offset the drag of lower investment by companies following the Brexit vote.
The number of people claiming unemployment benefit in Britain unexpectedly fell in July despite the shock decision by voters to leave the European Union, suggesting little immediate impact from Brexit on the labour market.Benefit claimants fell by 8,600 in the month, compared with an increase of 900 in June, and there was only a small fall in the number of jobs employers were trying to fill, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.Economists taking part in a Reuters poll had expected the number of claimants - a potential early warning sign of an economic downturn - to rise by 9,500 as employers responded to the uncertainty caused by the referendum.The figures represented the first official measure of the labour market since the June 23 vote. The ONS data also showed the pace of job creation remained strong in the run-up to the referendum."The labour market data for July — the first 'hard' figures since referendum - suggest that the economic recovery is slowing, but do not give a resounding recession signal," Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said, pointing to the fall in vacancies.
Shoppers in Britain shrugged off June's shock Brexit vote as retail sales jumped by much more than expected last month, adding to signs there has been little immediate hit for consumers.Warm weather boosted clothes sales and the pound's plunge tempted overseas buyers to splash out on luxury items such as watches and jewelry, official data showed on Thursday.These are the first official figures to shed light on how consumer demand has performed since the unexpected decision by voters to leave the European Union in the June 23 referendum.Data released earlier this week also showed little immediate impact of the Brexit vote on the labor market but there were signs of inflation pressures building after the plunge in sterling, which could eat into the spending power of households going forward.Sentiment surveys have shown levels of concern, but actual retail sales volumes surged 1.4 percent in July compared with June, the Office for National Statistics said, topping all forecasts in a Reuters poll that pointed to a much smaller rise of 0.2 percent.
the ONS figures came out this week
gold standard
Quote from: Mr. Psychologist on August 18, 2016, 01:58:41 PMgold standardkys
Quote from: Meta Cognition on August 18, 2016, 02:23:18 PMQuote from: Mr. Psychologist on August 18, 2016, 01:58:41 PMgold standardkysDEATH TO THE FEDERAL RESERVE
Quote from: Mr. Psychologist on August 18, 2016, 02:24:29 PMQuote from: Meta Cognition on August 18, 2016, 02:23:18 PMQuote from: Mr. Psychologist on August 18, 2016, 01:58:41 PMgold standardkysDEATH TO THE FEDERAL RESERVECareful. Muammar Gaddafi said the same thing... Ahem.https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=libya%20gold%20standard Bam. 1 Billion links. You do anything to mess with the dollar or euro and you'll find the US Military at your doorstep.
Quote from: Josh55886 on August 20, 2016, 07:07:48 PMQuote from: Mr. Psychologist on August 18, 2016, 02:24:29 PMQuote from: Meta Cognition on August 18, 2016, 02:23:18 PMQuote from: Mr. Psychologist on August 18, 2016, 01:58:41 PMgold standardkysDEATH TO THE FEDERAL RESERVECareful. Muammar Gaddafi said the same thing... Ahem.https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=libya%20gold%20standard Bam. 1 Billion links. You do anything to mess with the dollar or euro and you'll find the US Military at your doorstep.I wholeheartedly support the federal reserve and the petrodollar monopoly.
Is Britain ever going to leave the European Union. Cause it seems they have just ignored its result and moved on with life.
Quote from: Risay117 on August 20, 2016, 11:58:19 PMIs Britain ever going to leave the European Union. Cause it seems they have just ignored its result and moved on with life. Yeah, the government is just yet to decide when to formally trigger the process. Hell, we even have a "Department for Exiting the European Union" with its own minister.
Quote from: Meta Cognition on August 21, 2016, 02:00:11 AMQuote from: Risay117 on August 20, 2016, 11:58:19 PMIs Britain ever going to leave the European Union. Cause it seems they have just ignored its result and moved on with life. Yeah, the government is just yet to decide when to formally trigger the process. Hell, we even have a "Department for Exiting the European Union" with its own minister.Well looks like beauracracy will kill any hope of Brexit.
Moody's: UK to avoid recession, world economic to stabilise
