Quote from: Executioner Sigma on September 09, 2015, 03:23:02 PM

Quote from: Cheat on September 09, 2015, 02:03:42 PM

You should calculate the odds of God being real.

I doubt he'd be able to do that if he isn't doing Bayesian probability.

Fortunately, I'm a layman.

Definitions:

1) X is any arbitrary event. (I was born in Germany.)

2) ¬X denotes "not X". (I was not born in Germany.)

3) E represents the existence of positive evidence that indicate X is correct. (My birth certificate is from Germany.)

4) ¬E denotes "not E", or the total absence of positive evidence.

5) P(X) denotes the probability of X.

6) P(X|E) denotes the conditional probability of X given E; this is the joint probability of X and E divided by the probability of E.

P(X|E) = P(X^E) / P(E)

Assumption (1):
- If an event like X were to really have happened, then it very likely left some evidence of itself. In other words, the probability of E, given X, is greater than the probability of NOT E, given X.

P(E|X) > P(¬E|X)

1 - P(¬E|X) > P(¬E|X)

P(¬E|X) < 1/2

This isn't an unfair assumption, as most things of significance leave some sort of evidence.

Now we invoke Bayes' Theorem: P(¬E|X) = P(X|¬E)P(¬E) / P(X).

-> 1/2 > P(X|¬E)P(¬E) / P(X)

P(X|¬E) < (1/2) P(X)/P(¬E)

Thinking about P(X) in the equation immediately prior, is X a likely or unlikely event?

Assumption 2:
- The event X is extraordinary. P(X) << 1. The probability of event X is very small.

Let X be an intersection of two statistically independent events, A and B. X = A^B. (I was born in Germany, and I love shitting on my neighbour's lawn.) However, the joint probability of A and B is always equal to or less than the probability of A or B. P(AB) = P(A)P(B). The more events which define X, the lower the probability.

Returning to the emboldened equation, consider the term P(¬E). What can we say about the likelihood of evidence for X?

Assumption 3:
- We have searched for evidence of X, but failed to find any. P(¬E) [approx.]= 1. The probability of no actual evidence for X is very high, and the more we search for E but fail, the closer this value approaches 1.

Bringing forward the emboldened equation again:

P(X|¬E) < (1/2) P(X)/P(¬E)

The more specific and extraordinary X, the closer P(X) is to 0. And the more we search for evidence, but fail, the closer ¬E is to 1. The ratio here [P(X)/P(¬E)] then, must be very small. As long as this ratio is less than one, the entire right-hand side of the inequality is less than one-half.

P(X|¬E) < 1/2. This inequality must hold. This implies: P(¬X|¬E) > 1/2.

We finally arrive at:

P(¬X|¬E) > P(X|¬E). In other words, given an absence of any evidence for X, the more likely event is that X did not, in fact, occur.

This is a demonstration of the epistemic principle known as the inference to the best explanation. Many things cannot be known with absolute certainty, but we can show which explanations are most preferable.

Recap:
1) An event like X should leave evidence.
2) All things being equal, X is unlikely.
3) We have searched for evidence of X, but failed.

From these premises, it mathematically follows that ¬X is a more likely event than X.

Let X be the following claim:

Quote

The Virgin Mary, upon being impregnated by Yahweh, gave birth to a half-blooded demigod named Jesus of Nazareth. During his life, Jesus performed many miracles that included healing the sick, raising the dead and turning water into wine. Jesus also took the aggregate sins of humanity upon himself, and gave his own life for us. Upon his execution by Roman authorities, Jesus rose from the dead and ascended to Heaven. All of these events were compiled into the record, with inerrancy, known as the New Testament.

And anybody who fails to believe this will spend an eternity in endless suffering.

If any of this is to be the case, we should find evidence beyond mere say-so.

P(E|X) > P(¬E|X).

X is a huge intersection of independent events, all competing with the various denominations and interpretations of Christian doctrine which is, in turn, competing with those belonging to other religions. Significant positive evidence for Christianity is yet to have been found, also.

P(X) [appox.]= 0.

P(¬E) [approx.]= 1.

P(¬X|¬E) [approx.]= 1. Quad erat demonstrandum.

Oh.

Plz delete that spam

Quote from: Rocketman287 on September 09, 2015, 03:08:04 PM

I expected music to be working out better than it is now. Have a band and be playing locally. But instead I've discovered that I can't depend on anyone for anything.

You can only depend on others for certain things, but if you want something to happen you have to depend on yourself to make it so. You're the only one holding yourself back. Music is a language from the soul, so you have to openly express it until it is heard, and it will be appreciated. If you are exposed to something long enough you will eventually find admiration. It's the laws of attraction. Express it and be heard!

Unless...

Your music sucks then you can shut the hell up. I'm looking at you retarded rappers.

That's great and all, but I can't play piano, drums, etc.

I can do enough to get by on my own but I can't truly make something sound the way I want without those things

I thought I would've gotten laid by now tbh

Minions don't deserve love

Quote from: Thunder on September 05, 2015, 09:45:21 PM

What is making English the official language going to accomplish? No really? Anyone can still speak whatever language they feel like.

Nobody cares what language you speak within your household or amongst your peers, but when you go to a grocery store and start speaking to the clerk in Korean, that's going to piss people off. (Yes, I've actually had that happen before.) I honestly believe that we should make all immigrants/tourists take a basic language test before letting them come here. Same goes for every other country. I would never go to Germany if I didn't at least have a basic understanding of German. Going to a country and not speaking the native language is not only disrespectful to it's people, but also disrespectful to its history and culture.

That's why you conquer them instead and impose your culture and language over them

Care

Uh

Bee

An

dudes I've been borrowing Smash for like a month now, I'll probably need to return it soon.

Yeah let's get this done. Who are we waiting on?

Quote from: Venom Jester on September 08, 2015, 01:27:25 AM

Kojimia should have just said he put tits in the game because he likes tits

^^^
at least that would have been honest

I think he actually did say that somewhere. Can't recall where

Jesus, Rocket, drunk in math class?

this is like real life flanderization

Pfffft not drunk. Just like typing BIG LETTERS

this little sperglord is the reason it took me 15 years to get past the start of the game.

SHIIIIIIIIIT

This little freak made "war of the worlds" unwatchable for me. 

STOP SCREAMING HOLY CRAP





INB4JARJAR

RISE

>:I

No Psy, only Korra makes that face

Quote from: TBlocks on August 26, 2015, 10:11:09 AM

Quote from: SoporificSlash on August 26, 2015, 09:54:44 AM

Quote from: TBlocks on August 26, 2015, 09:53:38 AM

Quote from: SoporificSlash on August 26, 2015, 09:50:03 AM

Quote from: TBlocks on August 26, 2015, 09:44:54 AM

I agree. We don't need pointless locked threads everywhere signalling one got moved.

I honestly think a few of the staff members don't know that its a thing. Cheat, did at least, just give people powers without giving any kind of how to or lesson. Like I remember when I became mod he literally just said "have fun, please don't break anything" and I had to figure out everything myself. Not sure if that's still how things work but yeah.

Same thing for the mod trial actually. No guidance, no explanation on how things worked, no letting us know what certain things did. Actually at one point I was told to "stop asking so many questions and figure it out for yourself." (I'm won't name who it was) but when judgement came turns out it was the least active one who got the job out of the 3 of us. Oh and I was also told a reason I wasn't chosen was that "I didn't ask enough questions."

Wow that's actually pretty fucked up. I can understand why you're so salty about that.

And y'know there's that whole thing about Cheat demoting me and Rocket because he was getting rid of the monitor role only for it to come back a couple months later... >.>

Yeah I have to say if I was in you or Rocket's position I'd be pretty pissed and I'd also be way less pastoral than you're being about it.

*shrugs*

I'm indifferent

Holy crap Nolan North sucks

You can't vote for maps in halo 5 mp





























































BECAUSE ITS ALL ONE HUGE MAP