Y'know, if you're going to present a thread in this professional non partisan manner, at least actually make the thread like that.

It is. As I said in the very first paragraph, the economic stuff is all from the last 2-3 days. The final 2 links about the scientists and hate crimes aside, every single one of the sources I linked is from after August 2nd. Something actually major happened (Bank of England interest cuts and stimulus package) so I read up on what else happened in the same time frame and made a thread about it. I go through Reuters, BBC, Google News and r/unitedkingdom / ukpolitics. Trust me, if I wanted to make a one-sided compilation of all the bad shit since the referendum, I could do a whole lot worse than this. But I don't. The reason there's nothing outspokenly positive in here is because I didn't find anything in August, which was the entire point of this thread as I wanted to talk about the recent data concerning the month of July. And even then, I feel I did a good job at presenting this in a fair manner. I very often included the "but...", "however..." and "yet some companies say..." when it was relevant, while I very easily could've neglected to make mention of those things and made this post appear a lot worse.

You've cherry picked the most pessimistic predictions and presented them as concrete fact, which is a pretty disingenuous way of conveying information on this topic to anyone uneducated.

Again, as I literally said in the first paragraph of my post, this was the very latest economic data available to us. If you honestly believe this was the most pessimistic and cherry picked information I could find to make the vote to leave the EU seem as terrible as possible, then you are very mistaken, as I could've done a whole lot worse by picking my sources and words more carefully and actually looking at data that isn't exclusively from the past 3 days. I also don't see how I'm disingenously presenting anything as concrete fact, when my entire post is riddled with "according to X...", "cautioning", "but" and "however". When I say that the Bank of England experts expect X, it is a fact that they are indeed expecting that. If you disagree with their expectations, take it up with them instead of shooting the messenger and accusing me of presenting things a certain way. I know you want to see positive things about the Brexit as you so heavily favor it, but I did not represent the data or these publications in an inaccurate manner. Now that the first month following the referendum is over, the BoE has changed its monetary policy and the first hard data is coming in. This thread is about those recent developments and findings. That's it.

While I'm certainly not contesting the contentions of economic experts, it's paramount to include the contrasting points of view as well:

Not a single one of your links is even from this month. They all fall outside of the time frame I specified for the economic data I listed.

Your first link just says that the UK will use the foreign aid it gives to leverage trade deals which won't happen until 2019 at the earliest. It's not relevant to anything I said and is more a case of stating the obvious for 3 years from now than actually being a "contrasting point of view" to the current state of the British economy.

Your second and third link are from July and just say that the FTSE 250 briefly retained its old level and FTSE 100 (where the vast majority of companies aren't actually British) has reached high levels (which I always said would happen) and that the UK GDP has risen by 0.6% (of which only 8% of the period surveyed took place after the referendum) which I made an entirely separate post about in my other thread. Everything else in there was from the first part of the year (up until the end of June, meaning that only 1 single week of the period analyzed actually fell after the referendum), while my post covers the follow-up thereto for the month of July. If anything, you using older information primarily regarding the situation prior to the referendum when I'm talking about the most recent developments in July is more of a disingenous representation of facts you're accusing me of.

Your fourth link is again almost 2 weeks old and just details a single corporation investing in the UK, something I never contested and mentioned before. Both in this thread and my previous one, I clearly mention that there's also companies feeling no significant impact from the referendum and are continuing to expand its British activities (such as McDonald's looking to create 3,000 new jobs).

Your final link is 3 weeks old and, as it literally says, "generally covers business conditions in the month preceding the EU referendum". As for the post-referendum situation, it says that "business uncertainty had risen markedly" but that it didn't find evidence of a sharp downturn. If you look at my other thread, you'll see that I clearly acknowledge this report as part of the sources I linked, but that the Financial Times literally said that it was the only partial exception to the otherwise unanymous findings that business activity was slowing down sharply, which is now what has prompted the bank to revise their previous opinion by cutting interest rates and adopting a stimulus package. So again, I'm not seeing how this is a "contrasting point of view" that I am deliberately ignoring, as it's an older report from when the Bank still thought there was no reason to change its policy, something they just now did in light of the new information my threads are talking about.

The entire purpose of this thread is to compile the most recent economic developments, data and research that came out this month. It was inspired by the recent policy changes from the Bank of England and aimed to include findings concerning the month of July. I try to paint an honest and neutral picture when making these threads, but this time around I just didn't stumble upon anything positive that was worthy to be included. And even then, I made sure to incorporate the more positive parts of the articles either way.

Quote from: Flee on August 03, 2016, 08:06:16 PM

Jagten is a great movie. Prisoners, Der Untergang, Das Leben der Anderen, Dredd and Everest are some other good ones as well.

Der Untertang is really great. I haven't watched any of the other ones though.

Das Leben der Anderen is really good too. It's about surveillance by the secret police in East-Germany before the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the USSR. Not going to spoil anything about the story, but it deals with the extreme paranoia people had (suspecting their neighbors of being spies and reporting friends and family to gain favor from the government) and the morality of the actual surveillance guards digging through people's lives. Top film, would recommend.

So that's 22:00 my time. I might get on actually, although the lack of proper BR starts gametypes disappoints me.

GT: Flee4me.

For part 1 on economic happenings after the referendum, see my previous thread. This is all from the last 2-3 days.

The Bank of England cut its interest rates to 0.25%, which is an all-time record low in the 322 year history of the Bank and the first cut since the 2009 recession, with most BoE policymakers expecting to cut the interest rate even more later this year after their recent sharp downgrade to the economic outlook for the UK in 2017 (the largest revision to the Monetary Policy Committee's GDP forecast in history). As the BBC summarizes, the Bank of England is "not very confident" about the future of the British economy, as the economy will be 2.5% smaller in 3 years than the bank thought it would be before the referendum, growth will false close to 0 for the rest of the year, unemployment will rise (although only marginally), inflation will rise, real income growth will slow and house prices will decline. As such, the Center of Economics and Business Research expects economic growth to fall dramatically and that a recession will be "difficult to avoid", along with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research expecting the British economy to shrink in the following months and giving the country a 50% chance to end in a recession by the end of the year and the CBI seeing the fastest falling rates of business confidence since 2009.

In addition, billions of pounds of stimulus were released to cushion the economic shock in what the BoE chief's economist wish described as "using a sledgehammer to crack a nut". As the Bank is expecting the British economy to stagnate in 2016 and suffer very weak growth next year, it's hoping that these stimulus measures will help boost the economy.  As said by HSBC Holding, "The question is whether all this ... will have a significant impact on the real economy. Yields are already very low and uncertainty is the biggest obstacle to growth." And while the stimulus package is hoped to help and not expected to lead to another financial crisis, the Bank's Governor is still expecting that the British economy will "slow sharply" in the near future.

The UK labor market has entered a 'freefall' after the Brexit vote, according to the Recruitment and Employment Confederation. The number of permanent jobs placed last months showed a major decline and fall at the fastest pace since the economic crisis in 2009, in addition to the smallest growth of starting salaries in 3 years. REC's chief executive said that "economic turbulence following the vote to leave the EU is undoubtedly the root cause". While cautioning not to jump to conclusions, it is clear that businesses are affected by the referendum and are limiting themselves to short-term prospects due to the uncertainty. These findings are in line with Markit's Report on Jobs, concluding that the number of people securing permanent jobs has been falling since the referendum as nearly 40% of all recruitment consultants stating they're managing to place fewer people in stable positions. While not as high as other financial institutions have predicted (Credit Suisse is expecting a 6.5%), this alligns with the Bank of England suspecting unemployment to rise by 2017 for the first time in years. In addition, Bank of England Governor Carney expects more than a quarter of a million of jobs to be lost in the next years due to the Brexit-induced economic slowdown.

Markit's all-sector Purchasing Manager's Index has now been completed for last month and paints an even worse picture than originally suspected. It found the "steepest month-on-month decline on record after big falls in activity at private-sector services, manufacturing and construction firms." According to its chief economist, "the unprecedented month-on-month drop in the all-sector index has undoubtedly increased the chances of the UK sliding into at least a mild recession". The numbers point at the largest shrinking of the Brisith economy since the height of economic recession in 2009. The British service sector, which is the country's primary focus and has been growing consistently for almost 4 years, was expected to suffer the least but has been found to still be shrinking at the fastest pace since the 2009 financial crisis, with the month-on-month decline in business activity being the largest ever observed in the history of the surveys which started in 1996. However, it's worth noting that it's unclear if this is merely a knee-jerk reaction to the vote or the start of a steeper decline. While several other large surveys have shown major falls in business and consumer morale and activity, there is no official output data available yet.

Following the Brexit vote, UK construction is shrinking at the fastest pace since the 2009 recession according to Reuters reporting on Markit's PMI for the construction market. The current economic uncertainty resulting from the referendum was frequently cited as the main reason for construction order books being hurt. However, company reports are giving off mixed reports. While some major companies are reporting little impact so far, others (including Britain's largest) are noticing the effects and are bracing for further downturn in demand. In addition, construction companies have cut staffing at the fastest rate since 2009 and the prices of goods and materials for construction and manufacturing have been found to increase rapidly.

London house and property prices have fallen at the fastest rate since the 2009 recession since the Brexit referendum. According to Reuters, this is the latest sign of a possible slowdown in Britain after a closely watched survey on Wednesday showed Britain's economy is shrinking at its fastest rate since the financial crisis. Commercial property took the biggest hit in the wake of the EU referendum with investors pulling out money from funds, forcing some to be suspended. However, it is worth noting that not all of this can be attributed to the vote, as changes to the property tax already made buying property less attractive. These findings are in line with those of mortgage lender Halifax, experiencing a fall in house prices all across Britain but saying it's too soon to attribute it all to the referendum. As a response to this, Britain's biggest housebuilder is considering slowing the pace of construction and prepare for the expected slowdown in demand.

Brexit uncertainty is becoming an increasing cause of concern for large foreign investors as Nissan, while claiming to be reasonably optimistic, has just decided to put its long-term investment plans for Britain on hold. Its chief executive warned that its future investments with Britain will hinge on the terms of outcome of Brexit negotiations. Customs, trade deals and product circulation have been cited as the biggest concerns for post-Brexit trade with the EU. In addition, other corporations such as Goldman Sachs are increasingly considering to restructure their British operations in light of the referendum outcome, as US banks may follow suit in order ot serve the Eurozone over Britain. Others, however, are not making any drastic changes just yet, as BMW's CEO found no significant impact to its car sales following the Brexit vote and says it'ss still too early to draw up Brexit plans.

Finally, the actual triggering of article 50 appears to become increasingly less likely, as bookmakers continue to lower the odds of such a decision ever going through, Peers in the House of Lords talking about delaying or stopping Brexit altogether (good read, would recommend), European voters increasingly favor a tough Brexit deal for the UK, scientists in Britain becoming increasingly unsure and coming out with more stories of issues of funding and concerns about work permits and anti-immigrant hate crimes still being on the rise following the referendum.

Anyone else starting to think that Brexit may not be Brexit after all? The stimulus package should work, but the general trend of the post-referendum data coming in is rather negative. The best window to push article 50 through was immediately after the referendum, as I feel that it's becoming less likely as time goes on. I genuinely wonder if it's ever going to happen at this point.

Good list. Seems to slightly favor the third parties though. While Clinton and Trump are usually just a yes/no, Stein and Johnson often have a more elaborated / reasoned explanation.

Quake.
Wolfenstein multiplayer.

Quote from: Flee on August 04, 2016, 02:48:32 PM

He's also really not a very good public speaker, so there's that too.

This is what people seem to like about him, though. People have associated "scripted"-ness with politicians to the point where a guy can get up on stage and say whatever the fuck he wants and people will go "at least he's not scripted like the rest of 'em".

Yeah, and it's incredibly disappointing. Eloquency is an amazing skill, in my opinion. And as much as I can't stand Farage or De Winter, for example, I'll be among the first to admit that they're great and talented speakers capable of improvising and making impressive speeches on the spot. But Trump? His public speaking is lousy and only particularly popular among the "omg he just insulted that person and made personal attacks unrelated to the discussion at hand, he's so not politically correct and says what he really thinks" crowd. It's really just embarrassing, especially when compared to how many great speakers the right has had.

Quote from: Flee on August 04, 2016, 02:18:35 PM

How do you think the debates are going to go?

The thing about Trump is he's his own worst enemy.

If she lets him run his trap and corners him on his bullshit (nonexistent) policies, she's got it in the bag.

Yeah, he really does a great job at screwing himself over. He's also really not a very good public speaker, so there's that too.

Stream's live:

http://www.twitch.tv/quakecon

One more hour to go!

http://tv.quakecon.org/ for an overview of all streams.

So eh, I literally just had an Xbox update forced on me while playing Halo 5. The second my team won a game of Snipers, a black screen popped up and I was forced to either install the update or "continue playing offline". GG Microsoft.

>Cypher won't be there

Pass

I know, it's such a shame. He's currently in a professional Overwatch team and is dedicating all his time to that. He was #1. Who's going to take on Rapha now?

So you make custom t-shirts for people? You should do a sep7agon one some time.

And I get your predicament. Are you sure you won't be able to handle that many people?

Quote from: Flee on August 03, 2016, 05:52:00 PM

Quote from: Naru on August 03, 2016, 05:38:33 PM

pretty easy stuff, i got mine in a template you might wanna use

I'm interested in seeing it.

well its on my flash drive, and really barebones at this moment in terms of how it looks. id say its ok for some normal jobs that arent in my field yet, but anything past that? no lol, its embarrassing. lemme find my usb

Sure, I'm just curious to see what others CV's look like. I have my own, obviously, but recently helped my girlfriend put hers together too.

Gotta say, DC does a much better job at this than Marvel. I have music from The Dark Knight, Man of Steel and Batman v Superman on my phone, but that's about it. Most is typically bland and forgettable.