Official Syria/Iraq/IS Megathread.

First of all, if you don't know what's going on in Syria. Just watch this 6-minute video, and you will get the idea. (from a very Government-biased source).

If you do know already, please scroll down, and see the rest of my fatass thread.

YouTube

Just as a warning, there may be some of my opinions mixed into what I write. And this thread will take a while to actually complete. So I will just write down a very basic summary of what is going on where, and what has been going on.

For the time being, I will only have the one for Syria.

SYRIA  (the clusterfuck colors is due to the colors representing the major warring factions)

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Current maps:  (Red is Government and allies, Green is non-IS/JaN Rebels, White is Jabhat al-Nusra (Al-Qaeda in Syria), Black is Islamic State, and Yellow is Kurdish forces.

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Map from Wikipedia (generally neutral and gives no favor to one side of the conflict)





Map from Agathocle de Syracruse (also neutral. Blanked out areas are desert areas under no definitive control)

Background of the conflict.

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During the Arab Spring as Libya was starting to go down in flames, Syria was actually seen as an outpost of stability in the Middle East as many nations fell into chaos. On 15 March 2011, the mass protest movement began which demanded reforms at first, but the SAA cracked down on the protesters with massive amounts of force. And contrary to their expectations of the protests being quelled, they grew more and more intense until July 2011 when the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was formed. The conflict rapidly spiraled out of control, and became a brutal insurgency until the United Nations declared that Syria was in a state of Civil War on June 2012.

From July 2011 to April 2013, the Rebels made steady gains in most of Syria, in the end seizing control of about 60% of the country. Many observers predicted in the start of 2013 that Assad's fall was imminent, as the SAA was rampant in defections. It shrank from a peak of 300,000 soldiers to barely half that amount in 2013. Several factors saved Assad from being overthrown.

1: Iranian intervention. Hezbollah (Iran's affiliate in Lebanon) moved into Syria at Assad's request, as the Rebels were in control of most of the Qalamoon mountains on the border of Syria and Lebanon. Hezbollah provided Assad with several thousand extremely experienced Guerilla soldiers who saw numerous clashes with Israel's military in the past (IDF).

2: Creation of the National Defense Forces (NDF). Towards the end of 2012, the SAA's manpower problem became a serious problem as the Syrian military was forced to abandon large portions of the country for the reason that they didn't have enough men to hold those areas. Assad's Government realized this and worked with Iran to make a counter-insurgency force modeled on Iran's Basij militia. The idea of the NDF is that the people who are part of it would be based around and would defend their own city/village they live in. This would make them more motivated to fight, and they would also know the area they were fighting in. The creation of the NDF was a massive success, and by August 2013, the NDF numbered at around 100,000 soldiers who were arguably more effective than the SAA.


3. Rebel Exhaustion. As the rebellion became more and more fragmented with the emergence of factions such as Jabhat al-Nusra, international support for the rebellion waned. And as international support for the rebels declined, Russia and Iran were ramping up their support to the Syrian Government, so the pro-Government side ended up getting a massive edge over the rebels in terms of ammunition and firepower. They were able to exploit this as they retook the vast majority of the rebel-held Qalamoon mountains over the course of 2013, secure the perimeter of Hama city, reopen the supply route to Aleppo in November 2013 (which was besieged by the Rebels for nearly a year), and secure most of the rebel-held portions of Damascus.

A combination of all of these factors enabled the Government to retake large portions of the country lost to the rebels over the course of 2013. Most importantly though, was the Government able to completely secure its main contingent of land in the Southwestern and coastal regions of the country. This enabled to Government to form an effective rump state, from which they would slowly retake the rest of the country. But then....

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (as it was called then) was declared war on by every non-ISIL rebel group in January 2014. For the first few days, the Rebels scored significant victories against ISIL, including clearing them from Latakia, Idlib, Deir ez-Zor, and Aleppo Governorates, as well as retaking ar-Raqqa from them. This did not last however, as ISIL pulled in its resources based in Iraq, and secured the entirety of Deir ez-Zor Governorate from the Rebels (minus Deir ez-Zor city, which is fought over to this day), retake Raqqa, and secure much of the Eastern countryside in Aleppo Governorate. This left ISIL with control of about 30% of Syria, and enough land to form their own quasi-state. Then in July 2014, after a very successful offensive in Iraq, they became the Islamic State that we all love today! So how does this hamper the Government's advance now that the rebels are fighting amongst eachother?

The Government initially hoped to play the Rebel-IS conflict to their own advantage, and their strategy worked until July 2014 as they took the entirety of Homs city, and strategic areas to the East of Aleppo to prepare a siege of the Rebel-held portions. In July however, IS declared war on the Government starting with the seizure last remaining Government holdouts in Raqqa Governorate. This campaign culminated in the infamous battle for Tabqa Air Base. In what was arguably their largest defeat in the entire year, 800 SAA soldiers were routed and 250 were captured by IS. IS then proceeded to execute all 250 of them en masse and post videos of the execution all over the internet. Between this point and the siege of Kobane which would later prove to be IS's undoing, marked the point of time where IS was perceived as a nearly-invincible juggernaut.

After IS launched their ill-fated campaign in Kobane Canton in late September, and following some disastrous offensives against the SAA (namely in Deir ez-Zor), IS has been retreating all over Syria, and the Government, Kurds, and the Rebels have been in a race to exploit the IS collapse and seize as much land as possible. As of right now, no faction has a decisive advantage over the other, as the weaknesses in manpower of all 4 factions are showing.

What has happened in the war before now?

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Rebel gains from July 2011 to April 2013. Government gains from April 2013 to May 2014. IS gains from May 2014 to November 2014. Stalemate from November 2014 to February 2015. IS collapse from February 2015 onwards.

I didn't realize I would write up so much detail in the War Background section, so this section will be a bit basal for the time being until I find something to do with it.

Current situation on the ground.

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February 2015 onwards: IS collapse in Kobane Canton (North-Eastern Aleppo Governorate)  and Hasakah Governorate. Rumors of IS withdrawing troops from the East of Aleppo to defend Ar-Raqqa from Kurdish forces. No confirmation on any of that yet.

~15 March 2015: There was a Government raid on an IS-held oil facility in southern Deir ez-Zor Governorate. This would mark the SAA's first presence in that particular area in several years. Government forces based in Deir ez-Zor and Palmyra are making a drive to reconnect their portions of territory (Deir ez Zor has been besieged by the Islamic State for the past year). No further news on this as this is a recent development.

18 March 2015: SAA air defenses shot down a foreign drone flying over Latakia Governorate (90% Government-held). Drone is suspected to be either American or French. Possible intention of drone, if American, was to scout out Jabhat al-Nusra bases in the area to pave way for future airstrikes against JaN. I will update this as more information is shown.

Information on the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and allies.

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Currently consists of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF), Syrian Arab Navy (SAN), Hezbollah (Iran's Lebanese proxy), Iranian Special Forces, National Defense Forces (NDF), and various Government militias.

>The SAA is (obviously) the main pro-Government force on the ground, currently numbering at around 120,000 servicemen. It has a gigantic stockpile of antiquated Soviet tanks (mainly T-55s, T-62s, and T-72s), artillery, and Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs), each numbering in the low thousands. This makes the SAA into the single most powerful faction in the War in terms of firepower. However, the same cannot be said of its infantry component and how they use their gigantic armor reserves. The SAA consisted of nearly 3 times the amount of servicemen at the beginning of 2011, but a combination of enormous casualties (about 100,000 pro-Government fighters killed in the war to this day) and defections which peaked in 2012 and declined ever since, made the SAA completely unable to fight the war alone, which leads to.....

>Hezbollah is a nationalist, Shia Islamist Lebanese militia (and political party as well, but that's not important) which dates from the Lebanese Civil War during the 80's. Since its inception, it has received arms from Iran, which go through Syria as a transit point. Hezbollah numbers at an estimated 60,000 soldiers, though only 5,000-10,000 soldiers are deployed around Syria. Man-to-man, Hezbollah soldiers are significantly better fighters than SAA soldiers. In 2012 (but especially 2013 onwards), they were deploying troops to Syria in the part of the war when the Government was ceding land nearly constantly to the rebels. Hezbollah's role in the war was at a peak in June 2013, as the SAA and Hezbollah retook Al-Qusayr (the main rebel supply route through Lebanon) from Rebel forces who occupied the city since 2011.

>The SyAAF is not surprisingly, the Air Force of Syria. Which has a very mixed image due to its reputation for dropping Barrel Bombs all over civilian areas in Rebel-held Syria. Mostly consisted of antiquated Soviet stock (MiG 29, MiG 21, MiG 23), and did not enter the war in force until October 2012. Usage of Barrel Bombs and other airborne IEDs comes mainly from the fact that the SyAAF had very few guided munitions from before the war, and that most bombs were gravity bombs. Also from the fact that the SyAAF was designed to deal with an Israeli invasion rather than for the intensive ground-attack capabilities needed for a counter-insurgency. It was first speculated that the SyAAF would wear out its stock of aircraft, but the Russians have been more than happy to provide spare parts, training, and maintenance to SyAAF aircraft and personnel, thus enabling the SyAAF to fly to this day. The Air Force is the main Government trump card over the other warring parties, and was disproportionately powerful compared to other branches of the military due to the Assad Regime having its roots in the Air Force.


This section is a WIP.

Information on the Rebel groups (Free Syrian Army, Islamic Front, Jabhat al-Nusra, etc)

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Free Syrian Army (FSA), Islamic Front (IF), Levant Front (LF), Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN which is al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria), Southern Front (which operates exclusively in Dara'a and Quneitra Governates in Southern Syria), and several hundred other groups who I can't think of in this moment. This section is also a WIP.

>Free Syrian Army is the first major Rebel group to form, but has now been pushed outside most of Syria, and is now based primarily in the South of the country. The group was formed in 29 July 2011 by a defected Colonel from the Army named Riad al-Asaad (not to be confused with Bashar al-Assad, his arch nemesis). This group dominated the Opposition forces for the year after it was formed, but after that point, it rapidly lost ground and influence to Islamist groups who were receiving arms and support from Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, theUAE, and Turkey. The last FSA strongholds in Northern Syria were overrun by Jabhat al-Nusra in October 2014, as they seized all of their bases in Idlib Governorate within a few days. Since October 2014, the FSA only exists in the South of the country in Dara'a and Quneitra Governorates, where they play a major role in the Southern Front. The FSA at first represented Democratic ideals, but has gradually shifted into a more Islamist ideology over the course of the war.

Information on Kurdish Forces (YPG/PYD/PKK)

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WIP

Information on Islamic State presence in Syria (ISIS/ISIL/IS)

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IS currently holds territory in Eastern Homs and Hama Governates. They have about 50% of Hasakah Governorate (the southern half), the vast majority of Raqqa Governorate (they previously held the entire province from August 2014 to February 2015 until Kurdish forces exploited the IS collapse, and pro-Government guerilla forces established presence in the southwestern part), and the Eastern half of Aleppo Governate (no presence in Aleppo city, but they own several major cities to the East of Aleppo).

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Individual areas of major conflict.

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Aleppo

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Aleppo was an island of relative stability at the start of the conflict, and there was very little violence there until the conflict was spiraling out of control.

Let Aleppo's place in Syria be a metaphor for Syria's place in the Arab Spring. Aleppo is now the single most dangerous city on Earth, and Aleppo is the single most contested over city in the entire country. Both sides have been fighting a brutal war for the past 3 years there in conditions not far off from Stalingrad. Where every room, every house, every building, and every street is each a prize in itself. Once the war reached Aleppo in July 2012, it hit the city like a hammer on a thin sheet of glass.

Since Aleppo has been such a long-lasting and important battle (possibly the most important in the war), this section will have its own map which I will try to update as much as possible.

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Anyways....


By June 2012, it was inevitable that the war would soon reach Aleppo. The cities to the north of it have been previously falling like dominoes, and the Rebels soon took around 80% of Aleppo Governorate by the end of the month. In July 2012, the war finally reached the city. The rebels smuggled massive amounts of infiltrators into the city prior to the battle, so once they entered, they rapidly took about half of the city. It seemed as if Aleppo would be a quick battle, but the Government hastily dumped reinforcements all over the city, and halted the rebel offensive by the end of August.

The city of Aleppo was now divided into two, with the Government in control of the west and center, and with the Rebels in control of the north, east, and south. Roughly a 50-50 split in the city. This did not change the fact however, that the Rebels still controlled about 80% of the province, so they made moves to besiege the Government-held portion of Aleppo. As the Government was focused elsewhere in Syria, the SAA would have to face the Rebels in Aleppo alone, without significant support. They kept the situation stabilized, until a massive Government blunder fucked them over...

In the immediate aftermath of the Government's successful offensive in al-Qusayr, they finally diverted reinforcements to Aleppo in June 2013 for what would be known as "Operation Northern Storm". The reinforcements weren't enough however, and the SAA also had to divert soldiers from their last remaining supply line into Aleppo. After a brief few days of intense battle, the operation ended in a Government failure. Worse however, the Rebels quickly exploited the Government diversion of troops and they were finally able to besiege the Government-held part of Aleppo after nearly a year of fighting.

The SAA immediately took moves to undo what the rebels did. They threw in their best General (Souhail al-Hassan), and some of their best soldiers to reopen the highway leading to Aleppo. Between October and November 2013, they were able to reopen the highway connecting Hama and Aleppo city, as well as taking several previously rebel-held cities. Here's a map just to show you how much land they were able to retake in just over a month.

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Immediately after this, the Government launched "Operation Canopus Star" (December 2013-October 2014), which was aimed at besieging the rebel-held portions of Aleppo. Far from 2012 and 2013, when the Rebels were positioned to siege Government-held Aleppo, which by now is just an afterthought, the Government would now be the besiegers. Though the Government scored some very significant victories during the operation, such as breaking the 2-year long siege of Aleppo Central Prison in May 2014, and retaking Sheikh Najjar Industrial City from the Jabhat al-Nusra in July 2014, the operation has been strategically inconclusive. For the past 6 months, the Government has been in a position of near-siege of Rebel-held Aleppo, but they have not managed to besiege the city.

Another offensive, dubbed "Operation Rainbow" was launched in December 2014 to complete what they had started since they broke the Rebel siege of Aleppo. This offensive too has been very inconclusive, and though after manage to besiege Rebel-held Aleppo for a couple of days in February, the Rebels counterattacked with incredible fierceness, and pushed the Government back to where they were in January 2015. Though it is still predicted that the Government will lay siege to Rebel-held Aleppo, it is no longer a certainty as it was since before February 2015.

The battle in this city moves very slowly, so I may have no need to update this section for months even.

Damascus

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Homs (Battle ended in May 2014 with Government victory)

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Dubbed the "Capital of the Revolution", Opposition forces gained control of 80% of the city by the start of 2012. These gains were reversed however, as Government forces began a notoriously long and brutal siege of Homs. By July 2013, Government forces retook control of 75% of the city, and they had the rebels isolated to two districts in the city center by year's end. In April 2014, the Government and Rebels negotiated a Rebel exit from their remaining areas of Homs, and on 8 May 2014, the last of the Rebels have left, and the Government reasserted control over the entire city.

Kobane(Kurdish name and name you use if you don't wanna be a jerkass)/Ayn al-Arab(Arabic name)/Ayn al-Islam(IS name) (Battle ended in January 2015 with Kurdish victory)

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IRAQ

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This section won't be worked on for a while. The events in Syria led directly to the current crisis in Iraq, so I will complete the Syria section first. I just placed this here to show that I will work on it in the future.

The Islamic State

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Same thing as in Iraq. I will not get into working on the Islamic State section until I am done with the Syria section.

And if any of my information is wrong, please feel free to point this out as I am making this from the top of my head.

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Pretty relevant:
http://www.newsweek.com/iran-and-hezbollah-omitted-us-terror-threat-list-amid-nuclear-talks-314073

Looks like the US and muh rogue state are cozying up like I expected when ISIS began making multiple headlines a day last summer.

Not really..

They're as united as the FSA and JaN. They got their guns facing the same direction, but what's going on in both of their heads is how to undermine the other one.

EDIT: Tried to edit the OP, but I fucked up and accidentally reposted OP.

great read, who do you currently support in the war?

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great read, who do you currently support in the war?

Nobody right now. Except for the Kurds. But they have have no interest in ruling the entire country from Damascus.

I have lot of respect and pity for all of the groups participating in the war except for IS and JaN. But if each faction were fighting on its own, with no allegiance to any person but themselves, the SAA would be the group I'd most likely support. But since the SAA is fighting for a Fascist dictator...